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Not Good: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

POSITIONS: Short Industrials (XLI)

 

Bernanke did not deliver on what some conflicted and compromised people were begging for, so the USD rallied from this morning’s lows and Gold sold off. Stocks are well off their highs, making lower-highs, again – and that’s not good.

 

Across my risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most: 

  1. Intermediate-term TREND resistance = 1369
  2. Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1332
  3. Long-term TAIL support = 1283 

In other words, we’re a long way from 1283 – and the bigger question now is does that line hold?

 

I do not know, but we did sell into this hopeful move.

 

Hope is not a risk management process.

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Not Good: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - SPX


ISLE REPORT CARD

In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance.



OVERALL:  BETTER - better weather, a favorable calendar, and higher operating margins, particularly in Black Hawk, drove an EBITDA beat

 

  • DELEVERAGING
    • BETTER:  leverage ratio 5.7x came down a little bit from 5.8x last quarter
  • CAPE GIRARDEAU OPENING
    • MIXED: Cape Girardeau expected opening moved up two months ahead of schedule but the capex cost increased $10MM to $135MM
  • 2012 CAPEX GUIDANCE
    • BETTER:  FQ4 2012 capex was a little below $30MM, below company guidance of $45MM
  • POMPANO COMPETITION FROM SEMINOLE EXPANSION
    • SAME:  Pompano still doing well use to an aggressive marketing program and loyalty program. Pari-mutuel revs have also stabilized.
  • MISSISSIPPI ENVIRONMENT
    • SAME:  Mississippi properties continue to face the realities of a sluggish economy and heightened competitive pressures
  • PROMOTIONAL SPENDING
    • WORSE:  Saw an uptick in promotional spending in the Kansas City market due to the recent openings of the new casinos. Biloxi promotional spending environment continues to be fierce.

ISLE F4Q12 CONF CALL NOTES

ISLE F4Q12 CONF CALL NOTES

 

 

"Overall, we had a solid quarter marked by incremental revenue growth resulting from our refined business model, more favorable weather conditions than last year and an increasingly renewed asset base.  Even after adjusting for the fact that fiscal 2012 had an additional week when compared to fiscal 2011, we grew revenues and adjusted EBITDA."

 

- President and Chief Executive Officer Virginia McDowell

 

CONF CALL NOTES

  • They have now collected all of their insurance recoveries
  • No R/C borrowings outstanding
  • $0.5MM of capitalized interest for the Q and $1.1MM for the year

 

Q&A

  • Blackhawk, for the first time since ASCA opened, had market share growth. 
  • Have turned a corner in Vicksburg
  • Disruption impact of the consolidation of LA operations was in the range of $300k 
  • Pompano:  Coconut Creek opened recently but they have had improved promotions and the roll-out of their guest loyalty program.  Racing revenues have stopped declining.
  • Cash build is temporary as Cape Girardeau construction ramps and have notes that they will likely take out next year
  • Impact of the extra week? Just pro-rata the quarter.
  • Update on closing of Biloxi? 
    • Sometime in the summer
  • Cape Girardeau budget increase was infrastructure-related
  • New competition coming into Blackhawk over the next 6 months? 
    • They are in discussions with the new property owner next door and are going to work together to strengthen their pod of properties. They are also renovating the rooms there and using the Pompano as an example. Have done a lot to the slot floor, poker room, and putting in a new buffet.
  • No change in customer behavior/ spending patterns over the last few weeks
  • Any overly promotional markets out there?  Biloxi is really the only one there... very competitive for mid-week business.  Margaritaville opened without a big impact but is a very promotional environment there. Also saw an uptick in Kansas City.
  • Feels like there may be more M&A as companies' balance sheets are more in order and there has been compression in the bid-ask spreads.  They are always looking.

 

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE RELEASE

  • "We expect to open Cape Girardeau by November 1 of this year, two full months ahead of our initial schedule, and will complete the rebranding of Vicksburg within the next several months (F2Q13).  Further, as we continue to renew our asset base and provide guests with more options and more experiences, we have an aggressive schedule of targeted capital improvements planned for our properties during the coming months, including renovated hotel rooms, new buffets and a full rollout of our enhanced customer loyalty program."
  • "Black Hawk benefited from favorable weather conditions, completed facility enhancements, including renovations to the poker room and casino floor, and a reduced gaming tax rate compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011."
  • "Pompano continued to exhibit revenue growth resulting from changes to our game mix, enhanced food and beverage amenities and the rollout of our enhanced customer loyalty program during the prior quarter, while competing with a major new expansion at our nearest competitor."
  • "Waterloo showed strong growth in adjusted EBITDA margins during the quarter...as a result of operating improvements and reduced costs."
  • "Adjusted EBITDA margins decreased... primarily a result of severance and marketing costs resulting from the consolidation of our riverboat operations into a single facility.  We are benefitting from a lower cost structure in Lake Charles as a result of consolidation following the sale of our smaller riverboat in February 2012."
  • "Our properties in Mississippi continue to face difficulties stemming from a lagging economy in the area.  In particular, our property in Lula is facing increased competitive pressure from competing facilities in Arkansas.  However, in Vicksburg we benefited from operating improvements... partially offset by construction disruption associated with the ongoing rebranding of the facility."
  • "Kansas City property, however adjusted EBITDA decreased... primarily as a result of competitive market pressures following the opening of a new facility in the area during the quarter.  Our property in Boonville increased adjusted EBITDA margins... as a result of operating efficiencies and the introduction of the Farmers' Pick Buffet in the beginning of this fiscal quarter."
  • "We are currently renovating the 253 hotel rooms in the main hotel tower in Lake Charles and 237 rooms in the Isle Black Hawk Hotel.  We expect the $15 million complete refurbishment of the Lake Charles rooms to be completed by November 1, 2012.  In Black Hawk we are replacing carpet, wall coverings, and furniture at an expected cost of approximately $2.0 million, and expect to be completed by December 1, 2012."
  • "Intend to open additional Farmer's Pick Buffets in fiscal 2013 including at Cape Girardeau, Pompano, Black Hawk and Waterloo.  Additionally, we plan to add a Lone Wolf bar in our Waterloo facility."
  • "Expect to introduce [Fan Club loyalty] program to five additional properties during the first and second quarters of fiscal 2013, and intend to have it fully implemented across the portfolio by the end of fiscal 2013."
  • The expected cost of Cape Girardeau has been revised up $10MM to $135MM
  • "The appeal hearing for the gaming license awarded to Nemacolin Woodlands Resort for the final resort license in Pennsylvania was held on March 7, 2012. No date has been determined for an expected ruling on the appeal or the ultimate resolution of the matter.  We expect to begin construction on the property following a successful conclusion to the appeal process and receiving any other necessary approvals, and to open the property approximately nine months after the commencement of construction."
  • FY2012 capital expenditures were $75.2MM, of which $34.9MM related to Cape Girardeau, $0.7MM related to Nemacolin and $39.6MM related to maintenance capital and projects at our existing properties.
  • Net leverage, as calculated under our senior credit facility was approximately 5.7x 
  • Unusual items in the Q:
    • $112.6MM write-down to the value of Biloxi after the sale annoucement
    • Recorded a charge of $16.1MM related to the sale of our smaller riverboat and associated gaming license in Lake Charles, Louisiana, completed on February 9, 2012
    • Impairment charge of $14.4MM against the goodwill at our Lula property
    • Net revenues and operating income for the fourth quarter include $8.6MM of insurance recoveries 
    • Accrued approximately $2.0MM, including interest, in connection with a judgment issued in a legal case in connection with the Company's previously owned property in Vicksburg, Mississippi, which was sold in July 2006.  We are appealing the judgment and plan to vigorously defend our position.
  • FY2013 Guidance 
    • D&A: $76-78MM
    • Cash income taxes: < $5MM (primarily related to state taxes)
    • Interest expense (net of capitalized interest): $83-85MM
    • Corporate & development expenses: $40MM (including stock comp)
    • Capex: $140-150MM (including approx $85MM spent on Cape Girardeau)
    • Pre-opening of $5.5MM related to Cape Girardeau
    • FY13 will have 52 vs. 53 weeks in FY12

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FNP/LIZ: Kate Japan Math


FNP’s is expected to take over ownership of its Japanese Kate Spade business later this year (Q4), which would add $1-$2 in value to one of our favorite longs near-term. While we expect the EPS impact to be a wash next year (+/- $0.02), it is likely to add $12-$17mm in EBITDA in F13 and up to $0.10 and $15mm-$30mm in EPS and EBITDA in F14. The bottom line is that we’ve never seen a higher-end brand take back control of its content and distribution and it not be a positive event – we expect this deal to be no different.


Consider the following:

  • With 52 points of distribution, Japan’s store/door productivity is ~$1.4mm/store ahead of where we expect China is running and at nearly half Kate’s current store productivity.
  • Given that sales are up ~20% despite the tsunami impact, we’d expect productivity and sales to continue growing at a double-digit rate and likely exceed that growth over the last 12-months as FNP continues to grow its store base.
  • With $71mm in sales as of August ’11 and 20% growth, we assume Kate Spade Japan will generate revenues of ~$90mm by year end when the company expects to take sole ownership of the business.
  • The profits from this business will shift from being recorded in the Other Income line to being incorporated into the P&L as it becomes wholly owned. With operating profit margins in the HSDs, we expect Kate Japan to add $12-$17mm of incremental EBITDA in F13 reflecting modest margin expansion and $15mm-$30mm in F14 as the company realizes further margin expansion by leveraging existing headcount and operations in Asia.
  • COH has over 170 locations in Japan compared to Kate’s 52 suggesting a substantial runway for long-term growth. When COH took over control of its Japan business in 2001, it had 76 locations and $40mm in revenues. Today COH generates more than $700mm in revenues in the region. We think 20-25 locations over the next two years and $150mm in revenues by F14 is reasonable if not conservative for Kate.
  • The incremental addition of Kate Japan will add ~6pts to revenue growth in F13 suggesting 23% total top-line growth in F13 on top of high-teens growth in F12 (pro forma).

All in, this notes offering pushes out the duration of FNP’s debt maturity six years while reducing P&L volatility with the elimination of existing Euro Notes and most importantly the company assumes control over the Kate Spade Japan business. While these deals often result in minimal financial impact in early years, we think the earnings impact will be neutral in Yr1, but the EBITDA contribution from Kate Spade which already accounts for over 50% of the total is worth $1-$2 in value immediately. FNP remains one of our top longs.

 

Casey Flavin

Director

FNP/LIZ: Kate Japan Math - FNP Japan EBIT

 

FNP/LIZ: Kate Japan Math - FNP SOTP w Japan

 

 


IDEA ALERT: LONG SAFM

This is a company with long term top line tailwinds, easing input costs, and a best-in-class balance sheet operating in an industry that is consolidating. Yesterday, Keith bought Sanderson Farms in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio. Favorable supply metrics are driving pricing in the chicken market higher.  Corn is also going lower.  We’ve seen in the past that these two factors occurring coincidentally tend to drive the stock to outperform the market.

 

There are seasonal factors to be aware of in terms of how the name trades, but SAFM is a strong trade idea (three weeks or less).  We defer to Keith’s quantitative model, but seasonality in the stock suggests that it may be worth keeping this one on a leash that stretches, at most, from here to late-June.

 

Fundamental Outlook


The key to our call on Sanderson Farms is chicken pricing and the supply dynamics within the chicken processing industry that largely drive that factor.  By tracking pullet placements, we can understand the supply cycle within the chicken industry and compare that to the performance of Sanderson Farms’ stock versus the broader equity market.  Chicken pricing responds positively to reductions in supply, as the chart below shows.  In general, when the chicken supply cycle goes into liquidation – as pullet placements turn negative, prices begin to recover, and the stock recovers along with it.  The long term correlation between Sanderson Farms’ stock and Whole Chicken Prices (1995 to present) is 0.91.

 

IDEA ALERT: LONG SAFM - pullets v pricing

 

 

Corn prices are crucial for this company’s margins and the top line benefits of strong chicken pricing are best translated into profit growth when feed costs are favorable.  The chart below highlights the year-over-year decline in corn.  If the dollar continues to strengthen, corn is likely – at least in the near term – to continue to come down. 

 

IDEA ALERT: LONG SAFM - corn

 

 

Examining the trend in the annual change in pullet placements, we can break down the longer term cycle versus the relative performance of Sanderson Farms’ stock versus the broader equity market, or S&P 500.  As the first chart of this post highlighted, pullet placements declining typically drive higher chicken prices.  Historically, the liquidation stage of the chicken supply cycle has proven to be a prescient time to buy Sanderson Farms’ stock.  As the charts below indicate, buying SAFM as pullet placements contract can yield significant rewards relative to the S&P 500.

 

IDEA ALERT: LONG SAFM - pullets vs safm rel 97

 

IDEA ALERT: LONG SAFM - pullets vs safm rel 01

 

IDEA ALERT: LONG SAFM - pullets vs safm rel 07

 

IDEA ALERT: LONG SAFM - pullets safm rel 07 bad

 

The Tail (three years or less) View


The chart below highlights the potential for Sanderson Farms to outperform the S&P 500 over the next 2-3 years as the impact of supply contraction continues to drive pricing.  We have been cautious to tailor our view on Sanderson Farms to fit our macro team’s view on commodities and corn specifically.  If corn prices continue to move lower, we expect the benefits of higher chicken pricing to translate to improved earnings and stock price appreciation.  The beginnings of the current liquidation cycle has coincided with strong outperformance versus the S&P 500 (March 2011 to present) of 15% but we see further upside given the magnitude of the draw down in chicken supply and the implications of similarly large liquidations historically. A major difference between this liquidation cycle and prior cycles is that it is taking place in the midst of a much weaker economic period than prior cycles.  However, we believe that SAFM is a staple, certainly relative to the S&P 500, and expect this name to outperform significantly over the next two-three years.

 

IDEA ALERT: LONG SAFM - pullet vs corn SAFM outperf1

 

Quantitative Levels for SAFM

 

IDEA ALERT: LONG SAFM - SAFM levels

 

 

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 


INITIAL CLAIMS: TWO MONTHS TO GO

Claims Headwinds to Persist for Another Two Months

Initial jobless claims fell by 6k last week to 377k. Incorporating the 6k upward revision to the prior week's data (389k vs 383k), claims were lower by 12k. Four-week rolling claims rose 1.75k to 378k. For reference, rolling claims bottomed on a YTD basis at 355k on 2/25/12. The upward drift in the 3+ months since then has been 23k. We would expect another 10-15k in upward drift over the next two months before the trend begins to reverse. 

 

Overall, sentiment around employment remains weak. The most recent jobs report was unequivocally weak and the broader trend in claims has been negative. This trend will continue through July/August before reversing in September.

 

To be clear, the underlying trend in claims is positive. We look at the YoY trend in NSA claims to avoid the faulty seasonal adjustment factors. NSA claims continue to trend approximately 10% lower on a YoY basis. 

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: TWO MONTHS TO GO - Raw

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: TWO MONTHS TO GO - Rolling

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: TWO MONTHS TO GO - NSA

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: TWO MONTHS TO GO - NSA rolling

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: TWO MONTHS TO GO - S P

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: TWO MONTHS TO GO - Fed

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: TWO MONTHS TO GO - YoY NSA

 

Meanwhile, the Yield Curve Continues to Pancake

The 2-10 spread widened 5 bps versus last week to 140 bps as of yesterday.  The ten-year yield increased 4 bps to 166 bps. To put this in perspective, if spreads hold where they are now, the 3Q12 sequential change will rival what we saw in 3Q11, an ominous sign for bank margins. With Operation Twist set to end on June 30, all eyes will be on Bernanke at 10am this morning for clues on the next round of curve manipulation.

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: TWO MONTHS TO GO - 2 10

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: TWO MONTHS TO GO - 2 10 QoQ

 

Financial Subsector Performance

The table below shows the stock performance of each Financial subsector over four durations. 

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: TWO MONTHS TO GO - Subsector Performance

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: TWO MONTHS TO GO - Companies

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Robert Belsky

 

Having trouble viewing the charts in this email?  Please click the link at the bottom of the note to view in your browser.


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