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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 5, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 25 points or -1.58% downside to 1258 and 0.38% upside to 1283. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 6/04 NYSE -452
    • Up from the prior day’s trading of -2193
  • VOLUME: on 6/04 NYSE 824.27
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -17.53%
  • VIX:  as of 6/04 was at 26.12
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -2.03%
    • Year-to-date increase of 11.62%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 6/04 closed at 2.19
    • Down from the day prior at 2.64

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


10yr (UST) – 2 consecutive days of selling on bonds give the 10yr +5bps per day this week to 1.55% this morning (vs 1.45% on the freakout Friday low); my new risk management range (immediate-term) for the 10yr is 1.45-1.69%. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 40
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.07%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.52
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading 
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.27
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: Fed’s Fisher to speak in Fife, Scotland
  • 10 am: ISM Non-Manf. Composite, May, est. 53.5 (prior 53.5)
  • 11:30 am: U.S. to sell 4-wk bills
  • 2:15pm: Fed’s Bullard to Speak on housing in St. Louis
  • 7:15pm: Chicago Fed’s Evans to speak to money marketeers in New York 

GOVERNMENT:

    • House meets at noon for morning hour debate, 2pm for legislative business
    • Senate will vote on the motion to invoke cloture on S.3220, to amend the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 to provide more effective remedies to victims of discrimination in the payment of wages on the basis of sex, 2:30pm
    • Walt Disney Chairman and CEO Robert Iger, First Lady Michelle Obama announce changes in Disney’s nutrition policies
    • World Bank hosts meeting of Intl. Corruption Hunters Alliance
    • Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett attends Economic Club of Washington’s 25th anniversary dinner
    • Governor Scott Walker, R-Wis., faces recall election
    • FDIC Advisory Committee on Community Banking meets, 8:30am
    • CFTC holds public roundtable to discuss proposed regulations for designated contract markets, 9:30am
    • California voters weigh $1 increase in cigarette tax 

WHAT TO WATCH:  

  • Spain calls for EU aid for banks to battle financial crisis
  • U.S. service industries probably held at a 4-mo. low
  • JPMorgan to report $4.2b trading loss, ISI forecasts
  • Apple denied ban on Samsung Galaxy tab during U.S. patent trial
  • MF Global bankruptcy trustee Freeh sees claims of $3b
  • J&J to stop selling vaginal implants after safety complaints
  • Wynn Macau plans to invest $4b for new casino resort
  • BlackRock’s Robert Doll to retire as chief equity strategist
  • Goldman Sachs said to cut <50 jobs as revenue outlook worsens
  • Amylin said to receive initial offers at $25-$29/shr 

EARNINGS:

    • Layne Christensen (LAYN) 6am, $0.26
    • JA Solar (JASO) 7am, $(0.60)
    • United Natural Foods (UNFI) 7:30am, $0.56
    • Saputo (SAP CN) 12pm, C$0.61
    • Guidewire Software (GWRE) 4pm, $(0.02)
    • Oxford Industries (OXM) 4pm, $1.07
    • Bob Evans Farms (BOBE) 4pm, $0.74
    • Ulta Salonmetics & Fragrance (ULTA) 4:01pm, $0.53
    • Mattress Firm Holding (MFRM) 4:01pm, $0.25
    • FuelCell Energy (FCEL) 6pm, $(0.05) 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • Rice Poised for Third Record Crop as Prices Retreat: Commodities
  • Gold Gains on Speculation of Stimulus Measures by Policy Makers
  • Oil Falls on Speculation Europe’s Debt Crisis Will Curb Demand
  • Mongolia’s Erdenes May Be Valued at $10.6 Billion, Frontier Says
  • Oil to Avoid Repeat of 2008 Collapse, Shell CEO Voser Says
  • Palm Oil Snaps Four-Day Losing Streak on Ramadan Demand Outlook
  • EON Will Lose Millions of Euros After ‘Irregularities’ by Trader
  • El Nino Seen Developing in Coming Months as Pacific Ocean Warms
  • Freeport’s Indonesian Workers Threaten Strike Amid Tension
  • Asia Buys $500 Billion Australian Gas With U.S. Flooded: Energy
  • Semafo Bets on Africa to Double Gold Output: Corporate Canada
  • Nestle Selling New Coffee Machines as Recipe for Growth: Retail
  • Oil Bailing Out Singh Seen Halting Rupee Slide: India Credit
  • Joy Global Tempts Komatsu With Cheapest Industry Deal: Real M&A
  • Gas Price Slump Unlikely to Halt Capacity
  • Copper Declines, Reversing Advance, as Dollar Rally Curbs Demand
  • Corn Declines on Crop Conditions After Gaining Most in Two Weeks 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


GERMANY – after printing another sequential decline in another high-frequency data pt (has been happening since March) w/ German Services PMI down to 51.8 (vs 52.2), German stocks lead on the downside for the 2nd consecutive day in Europe as PM’s just sell whatever was working; DAX down -17% now from the March top.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


AUSTRALIA -  per one of the only respectable central bankers in the world (he goes both ways, raising and cutting, so that he has bullets); Stevens cut by another 25bps last night reminding us that “the ongoing trend is unclear and could be dampened by slower Chinese growth” – don’t just blame Europe folks. Australia’s slow-down is nasty.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team