President Obama’s Reelection Chances Fall to 54.2% -- Hedgeye Election Indicator

If the US Presidential election were held today, President Obama would stand a 54.2%  chance of winning, according to the Hedgeye Election Indicator (HEI). That marks the lowest reading in about five months, and reflects a weakening US stock market and a strengthening US stock market.



President Obama’s Reelection Chances Fall to 54.2% -- Hedgeye Election Indicator  - HEI



Hedgeye developed the HEI to understand the relationship between key market and economic data and the US Presidential Election. After rigorous back testing, Hedgeye has determined that there are a short list of real time market-based indicators, that move ahead of President Obama’s position in conventional polls or other measures of sentiment. Based on our analysis, market prices will adjust in real-time ahead of economic conditions, which will ultimately shape voters’ perception of the Obama Presidency, the Republican candidates and influence the probability of an Obama reelection.  


The model assumes that the Presidential election would be held today against any Republican candidate. Our model is indifferent toward who the Republican candidate is as the sentiment for Obama and for any Republican opponent is imputed in the market prices that determine the HEI. The HEI is based on a scale of 0 – 200, with 100 equating to a 50% probability that President Obama would win or lose if the election were held today.


Hedgeye releases the HEI every Tuesday at 7am ET until the election November 6

HedgeyeRetail: Chart of the Day; Nike/Umbro

Wall Street will think of Umbro accretion/dilution in terms of earnings and EBITDA. What they aren’t getting is the value of owning the rights to reproduce the ‘kit’ for each’s team’s colors.


Umbro’s most valuable football asset – by a long shot -- is Manchester City.  MC is officially no longer the ‘Other Manchester’ after it beat Man United and later took the Premier League title for the first time in 44 years (the equivalent of the Mets beating the Yankees) on April 30.


Now Nike is selling the Umbro brand. Tough loss of the ManCity kit. Or is it? Interestingly enough, on May 5, just six days after beating Manchester United, and despite being only 3 years into a 10-year deal, Nike renegotiated Umbro’s contract with the club such that ManCity will don the Swoosh next year.


Eight days later, ManC won the Premier League crown.


The timing is no coincidence. 


HedgeyeRetail: Chart of the Day; Nike/Umbro - chart1


HedgeyeRetail: Chart of the Day; Nike/Umbro - Table 1


  • CCL’s P/E valuation premium over RCL has widened to its highest level since Carnival’s acquisition of Princess in 2002.
  • Historically, CCL has a 2-3x premium over RCL on P/E valuation.  That spread has risen sharply in the past few months after narrowing in the midst of the Costa Concordia tragedy.
  • We expect the spread to narrow in the intermediate term due to RCL’s pricing outperformance for the rest of CY 2012.   



Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.52%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.67%


CONCLUSION: We are suspending our bearish bias on rupee-denominated assets – particularly Indian equities – on the event that INR-supportive inflows pick up in the immediate-term ahead of a potential rate cut. Further, higher lows in the rupee has the potential to develop into a sustainable TREND, making the risk/reward on shorting India from here a lot less asymmetric than it has been recently.


Over the weekend, RBI Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn explicitly confirmed a shift in the central bank’s policy bias to growth-supportive, rather than constrained by ever-present inflationary pressures stemming from infrastructure bottlenecks, elevated food and energy prices, and, of course, the central government’s bloated fiscal budget.


Into and through the event, India’s interest rate swaps market went from pricing in no monetary policy changes over the NTM (a core component of our bearish thesis) to pricing in -39bbps of easing, suggesting to us that the market has taken this rhetorical shift quite literally.




International inflows to India’s INR-denominated debt market are picking up as well, as Global Macro investors attempt to get ahead of pending rate cuts, etc. India’s 10yr sovereign debt yields have declined -30bps over the past month, 19bps of which occurred in the past week.




Indian equities, still decidedly in a Bullish Formation, flashed a critical positive divergence overnight, closing up +15bps with most of the other major markets in the region down 2-4% on the day. If the tide on Global Macro sentiment turns in the coming weeks – particularly on the heels of politicized action out of the Fed or ECB – India could potentially test its TRADE and potential TREND lines of resistance. Importantly, this would coincide with the RBI lowering rates by 25-50bps at its JUN 18 meeting.




Our proprietary G/I/P analysis suggests that it would be imprudent to for the RBI to streamline the current disinflationary forces they point to as supportive of adopting an easing bias. In fact, our models point to limited downside in Indian inflation over the intermediate term, a finding supported by the recent peaking of the disinflationary tailwind that is Deflating the Inflation (commodities) due to measured weakness in the rupee (-12.3% vs. the USD from its YTD peak).






To the RBI’s credit, however, the decline in crude oil prices does reduce inflationary pressure stemming from the fiscal deficit, as it allows the gov’t to reduce subsidy expenditures on capping gasoline and diesel prices.




Net-net-net, with the RBI now shifting to a growth-supportive policy stance, you could actually see capital inflows accelerate in the short term (positive for the INR vs. the USD); whether or not this becomes a sustainable trend remains the key question – we’ll let the market tell us what to do here. We’ve said all along that Deflating the Inflation would be a bullish factor for the global economy (India included), but also that getting from point A to point B required short-term pain from a financial market perspective. India, which was one of the first major equity markets to start breaking down in the YTD, may indeed signaling to us that “point B” has gotten incrementally closer from a domestic perspective.


All told, we would be reckless to fight the whims of Indian policymakers, who are eschewing vigilance on inflation (currently 270bps above their unofficial target) in favor of adopting a growth-supportive monetary policy bias. As such, we are suspending our bearish bias on rupee-denominated assets – particularly Indian equities – on the event that INR-supportive inflows pick up in the immediate-term ahead of a potential rate cut.


Darius Dale

Senior Analyst

European Banking Monitor: French and German Bank Risk Widens

Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".  If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email .

Key Takeaways:


* European Sovereign CDS mostly widened along with European Bank CDS. French and German banks widened across the board.  


 If you’d like to discuss recent developments in Europe, from the political to financial to social, please let me know and we can set up a call.


Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst




European Financials CDS Monitor – Bank swaps were wider in Europe last week for 26 of the 39 reference entities we track. The median widening was 7 bps.  


European Banking Monitor: French and German Bank Risk Widens - aa. banks


Euribor-OIS spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread widened by 1 bps to 40 bps.


European Banking Monitor: French and German Bank Risk Widens - aa. euribor


ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB.  Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system.  An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB.  In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.  The latest overnight reading is €784.97B.


European Banking Monitor: French and German Bank Risk Widens - aa. ecb facility


Security Market Program – For a twelfth straight week the ECB's secondary sovereign bond purchasing program, the Securities Market Program (SMP), purchased no sovereign paper for the latest week ended 6/1, to take the total program to €212 Billion.


European Banking Monitor: French and German Bank Risk Widens - aa. SMP


Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst

Shorting EUR/USD (FXE): Trade Update

Positions in Europe: Short FXE

Off of a bounce towards our immediate term TRADE resistance line of $1.25 Keith shorted the EUR/USD via the etf FXE in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio as we’re looking for the cross to test $1.22 on the downside. As we show in the chart below, our TRADE and intermediate term TREND levels of support are both at $1.22. Our call remains that if $1.22 breaks, look out below! We’re not EUR parity folks because we see Eurocrats stepping in to prevent it; however we see a runway of uncertainty until the June 17th Greek elections that should put significant downside risk in play.


Shorting EUR/USD (FXE): Trade Update - 11. eur


This cross remains incredibly shifty driven on the backs of Eurocrat posturing, including on the main topics of Eurobonds, a Pan-European Deposit Guarantee facility, another LTRO, and the reach of the ESM. We’ll be highly sensitive to price as we manage risk around this position. 


Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst

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