TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 4, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or -0.79% downside to 1268 and 1.72% upside to 1300.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 6/01NYSE -2193
- Down from the prior day’s trading of -124
- VOLUME: on 6/01 NYSE 999.49
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -24.72%
- VIX: as of 6/01 was at 26.66
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 10.81%
- Year-to-date increase of 13.93%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 6/01 closed at 2.64
- Up from the day prior at 1.74
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
USA – futures have gone from down 10 to down 3 and, more importantly, bond yields stopped falling – the 10yr is already up 5bps this morning vs Friday’s smack-down close; yield spread 5bps wider on that, which this market direly needs.
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 41
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.06%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.49
- Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.45
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.24
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.21
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 9:45am: ISM New York, May (prior 61.2)
- 10am: Factory Orders, Apr. est. 0.2% (prior rev. -1.9%)
GOVERNMENT:
- Pres. Obama attends fundraisers in New York with Bill Clinton
- House, Senate in session
- CFTC adopts Swap Dealer and Major Swap Participant Recordkeeping, Reporting and Duty rules
WHAT TO WATCH:
- EU said to prepare start of perm. bailout fund for July 9
- ASCO conference continues; Conference preview
- Spain calls on Merkel to further protect banks
- Walgreen, Express Scripts agreed to dismiss contract claims
- China non-manufacturing industries expand at slowest pace since March 2011
- ISS recommends AOL shareholders vote for 2 Starboard Value nominees, 6 AOL nominees, as directors
- Wal-Mart to release vote totals after all 16 board members were re-elected on Fri.
- Yahoo, Facebook in talks to end patent disputes: AllThingsD
- EFG-Hermes rejects $1.1b bid to pursue QInvest venture
- Service industries probably kept growing: U.S. econ. preview
EARNINGS:
- Conn’s (CONN) 7am, $0.33
- Dollar General (DG) 4:05pm, $0.60
- Shuffle Master (SHFL) 4:05pm, $0.20
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Hedge Funds in Longest Rout Since Global Recession: Commodities
- Copper Drops to Five-Month Low in New York After Data From China
- Gold Drops as Investors Seek Cash on Equities, Commodities Slump
- Commodities Drop to 18-Month Low as Slowdown Concern Deepens
- China’s Gold Imports From Hong Kong Climb to Record in April
- Speculators Cut Bullish Oil Wagers Before Plunge: Energy Markets
- Natural Gas Rebounds in New York After Drop on Cooler Weather
- Palm Oil Slumps to Seven-Month Low Over Global Growth Concern
- Waterway Petroleum Said to Buy ONGC Naphtha for Loading in June
- Burundi in Talks With Foreign Investors to Boost Power Output
- BP Exit From Russia Venture Seen Risking Investor Return: Energy
- Commodities Slumping as China Sees Weaker Yuan: Chart of the Day
- Nickel May Drop 3.7 Percent on Retracement: Technical Analysis
- Funds in Longest Rout Since World Recession
- Cotton Falls to 31-Month Low on Concern Global Glut Set to Swell
- China’s Easing Grip on Gas Opening Door to North America Exports
- Vitol Said to Buy July-Loading Gasoil From Mangalore Refiners
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
EUROPE – shorting Spain and Italy on Friday didn’t work – both are green this morning; again, markets discount reality and these markets have been crashing for months, so be careful on the short side until we get the bounces; then study those. IBEX +1.7% this morning and the Euro actually has not moved at 1.24.
ASIAN MARKETS
ASIA – Asian stocks have been going down since Feb/Mar, so last night was more of an immediate-term capitulation more than anything else (Japan down -1.7% = down -19.1% from its March top); interesting that India almost closed flat (given that it was the 1st market to stop going up, it was the 1st to stop going down – for a day).
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team