THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

06/04/12 07:32AM EDT

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 4, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or -0.79% downside to 1268 and 1.72% upside to 1300. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 6/01NYSE -2193
    • Down from the prior day’s trading of -124
  • VOLUME: on 6/01 NYSE 999.49
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -24.72%
  • VIX:  as of 6/01 was at 26.66
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 10.81%
    • Year-to-date increase of 13.93%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 6/01 closed at 2.64
    • Up from the day prior at 1.74 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


USA – futures have gone from down 10 to down 3 and, more importantly, bond yields stopped falling – the 10yr is already up 5bps this morning vs Friday’s smack-down close; yield spread 5bps wider on that, which this market direly needs. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 41
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.06%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.49
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.45
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.24
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.21 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 9:45am: ISM New York, May (prior 61.2)
  • 10am: Factory Orders, Apr. est. 0.2% (prior rev. -1.9%)

GOVERNMENT: 

    • Pres. Obama attends fundraisers in New York with Bill Clinton
    • House, Senate in session
    • CFTC adopts Swap Dealer and Major Swap Participant Recordkeeping, Reporting and Duty rules

WHAT TO WATCH:  

  • EU said to prepare start of perm. bailout fund for July 9
  • ASCO conference continues; Conference preview
  • Spain calls on Merkel to further protect banks
  • Walgreen, Express Scripts agreed to dismiss contract claims
  • China non-manufacturing industries expand at slowest pace since March 2011
  • ISS recommends AOL shareholders vote for 2 Starboard Value nominees, 6 AOL nominees, as directors
  • Wal-Mart to release vote totals after all 16 board members were re-elected on Fri.
  • Yahoo, Facebook in talks to end patent disputes: AllThingsD
  • EFG-Hermes rejects $1.1b bid to pursue QInvest venture
  • Service industries probably kept growing: U.S. econ. preview 

EARNINGS:

    • Conn’s (CONN) 7am, $0.33
    • Dollar General (DG) 4:05pm, $0.60
    • Shuffle Master (SHFL) 4:05pm, $0.20 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • Hedge Funds in Longest Rout Since Global Recession: Commodities
  • Copper Drops to Five-Month Low in New York After Data From China
  • Gold Drops as Investors Seek Cash on Equities, Commodities Slump
  • Commodities Drop to 18-Month Low as Slowdown Concern Deepens
  • China’s Gold Imports From Hong Kong Climb to Record in April
  • Speculators Cut Bullish Oil Wagers Before Plunge: Energy Markets
  • Natural Gas Rebounds in New York After Drop on Cooler Weather
  • Palm Oil Slumps to Seven-Month Low Over Global Growth Concern
  • Waterway Petroleum Said to Buy ONGC Naphtha for Loading in June
  • Burundi in Talks With Foreign Investors to Boost Power Output
  • BP Exit From Russia Venture Seen Risking Investor Return: Energy
  • Commodities Slumping as China Sees Weaker Yuan: Chart of the Day
  • Nickel May Drop 3.7 Percent on Retracement: Technical Analysis
  • Funds in Longest Rout Since World Recession
  • Cotton Falls to 31-Month Low on Concern Global Glut Set to Swell
  • China’s Easing Grip on Gas Opening Door to North America Exports
  • Vitol Said to Buy July-Loading Gasoil From Mangalore Refiners

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CURRENCIES

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


EUROPE – shorting Spain and Italy on Friday didn’t work – both are green this morning; again, markets discount reality and these markets have been crashing for months, so be careful on the short side until we get the bounces; then study those. IBEX +1.7% this morning and the Euro actually has not moved at 1.24.

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ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – Asian stocks have been going down since Feb/Mar, so last night was more of an immediate-term capitulation more than anything else (Japan down -1.7% = down -19.1% from its March top); interesting that India almost closed flat (given that it was the 1st market to stop going up, it was the 1st to stop going down – for a day).

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team

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