EYE ON BANKRUPTCIES

While the obvious states are being hit by retail bankruptcies (CA, TX, FL, NY), when we adjust by population it shows greatest damage in the states with the lowest (but creeping higher) unemployment.

By my math, 28 retailers have gone bankrupt since Jan 1, 2008. That’s no shocker to anyone that has not been locked in a closet for the past year. But we tore through the number of stores affected by state for the companies that filed, and came away with some interesting call-outs…

1) If I were to ask 100 retail analysts which 5 states were most impacted by bankruptcies, I’d bet that 90 would say “California, Texas, Florida, New York, and Arizona.” Four out of five of these states made the cut. Arizona was shockingly low on the list at 44 out of 50. That one caught me by surprise. Number five was Pennsylvania. If Bon-Ton files, then PA would make it to number 2 or 3.

2) There are a thousand ways to shred apart this list. One of the biggest is that the most populous states will naturally have the most stores, and therefore the most closures. So I weighted the store count by state population, and the only one that made the list of top five with disproportionate impact relative to its population was California (no surprise). What is interesting is that the other states in the top ten include states such as North Dakota, Vermont, New Mexico, and Nebraska. These are also the states with the lowest – but steadily increasing -- unemployment rates (sub 4%). Could things get worse before they get better?

Zach Brown
Brian McGough

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more