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HedgeyeRetail: Chart of the Day

Personal income ticks down materially in conjunction with a weak jobs report. But personal consumption does not. Instead, the personal savings rate (down 40bps to 3.4% -- the lowest rate since 8/08) acted as a buffer and allowed Americans to execute on its most consistent behavioral pattern – spend regardless of changes in the day to day Macro climate. This story does not have a pretty ending.

 

 HedgeyeRetail: Chart of the Day  - Piggy bank chart of the day


VRA: Q1 Report Card

 

Conclusion:

 

The irony with VRA is that positives actually outweighed the negatives with this print – albeit modestly – and the stock is still down 10%. Apparently short interest as a percent of float at 47% was not a factor. Our long-term (which is evolving into intermediate term -- i.e. reality) concerns remain 100% in tact, and there was little in the quarter that we heard to change that. Consider the following:

 

On the plus side…

  1. The print came in ahead of our expectations. It was driven by costs, some of which was timing-related, some was not. Nonetheless, not what we will pay up for in looking at a name like VRA. A beat, yes. But not a clean one.
  2. The company is accelerating door growth at Dillard’s by nearly 2x. Initial plans were to add another 60 doors this year. VRA opened 41 new doors in Q1 alone and increased its plan to add 110 new doors (175 in total).
  3. In addition, VRA announced its second department store partnership with the mid-west chain Von Maur. With 27 stores, it’s not exactly a national retailer with incremental door expansion opportunity, but a net positive and vote of confidence from the department store channel and incremental boost to Indirect revenues.
  4. Inventories look good down -3% with the sales/inventory spread up +7pts to +19%. It turns out that timing artificially boosted this figure due to a ~$7mm push of inventory into 2Q. But even after adjusting for the event, the +12% spread looks good. 

On the negative side…

  1. The company continues to move at a feverish pace to open large wholesale accounts. We still think that the motherload for VRA will be in connecting with JCP for a shop-in shop. That would be a big channel fill/short squeeze event. It would also do wonders for eroding its relationships with 3,400 wholesale customers – and its salesforce that serves them.
  2. Indirect sales were up +1.3% at the low end of management’s guidance.While the growth at DDS is very real and sustainable, we remain concerned about contraction at VRA’s small independent retail account base – a trend that even increased growth in the department store channel will not be able to offset over the intermediate-term.
  3. Comps came in up +4.3% a bit shy of expectations of +4.8% reflecting a continued deceleration in both the 1Yr and 2Yr demand. This is perhaps the most concerning trend as the company looks to aggressively ramp distribution. The underlying demand is not as strong as we’d like to see for a company looking to grow as aggressively as VRA is planning.
  4. A timing shift in marketing spend pushed into Q2 likely added $0.02 in EPS to the quarter. These costs don’t simply go away and the SG&A outlook for Q2 suggests that management is still expecting higher costs through 1H. We expect higher costs to continue due in part to investments made in 2H that we don’t expect to lever until Q4.

We’re not sure if this is a positive or negative, but in an effort to drive demand, the company is starting to enter categories that it thinks make substantially more sense than its foray into rolling luggage – an incremental positive if it can pull it off. While VRA now offers cell phone covers, the more notable addition is its bigger bet in the baby category with an expanded line of bags, throws and comforters to be launched next year. This is a positive change on the margin and could help reinvigorate demand, BUT we’re still a year out from when this product will hit shelves and VRA is not helping scarcity value by accelerating door growth in the meantime. The ultimate key will be to spend the right dollars in the right places, and take on the right licensing partners under the right terms.

 

All in, we’re shaking out at $0.35 for Q2 and $1.65 and $1.67 in EPS for F13 and F14 respectively 17% below the Street next year (F14). While the company is beginning to expand into categories that make more sense for the brand (i.e. baby), internationally into Japan, and further in the department store channel, we think these efforts are not enough to offset the declining core wholesale business as it becomes cannibalized by VRA’s own retail stores. We think that the best way to ensure success will be to spend behind it, and we’re not convinced that this is happening. Our model has SG&A and capex climbing in 2H and 2013. 

 


What Drove the Beat?

Top-line sales came in modestly better than expected driven primarily by new store growth and e-commerce coupled with deferred spending resulting in the $0.02 EPS beat of $0.31 vs. $0.29E and our $0.27 estimate.

 

VRA: Q1 Report Card - VRA S

 

Outlook: In order to properly measure performance relative to original expectations, we look at management’s Q1 results relative to management guidance as well as any updates to previously provided full year 2013 outlook:

 

VRA: Q1 Report Card - VRA MgmtOutlook

 

Highlights from the Call:

 

  • EPS $0.31
  • Revs +16%
    • +34% rev growth in Direct
    • Opened 5 full price, 1 outlet - new store showing some of strongest new productivity to date
    • Now have 53 full price; 9 outlets
    • E-comm +26%
    • Added 41 DDS locations
    • Expecting some near term revenue headwinds primarily in the indirect channel via the retirement of some carry over patterns

Product Launches:

  • Summer collection has been well received by customers
  • 2 fall releases : 1 in July with back to campus, 1 in August each with 3 styles and expanded assortment
  • Will launch Ribbons for breast cancer awareness in September and a winter collection in October
  • Recently launched cases for I phones currently featured in 100 Verizon stores nationwide in a licensing deal
  • VRA launching new Baby category next year

Indirect: +1.3%

  • Some of specialty retailers impacted by underperformance of carry over patterns which is impacting re order activity
  • Will continue to grow indirect segment through furthering relationship with specialty retailers to grow productivity

Department Stores:

  • Opened additional 41 DDS doors in Q bring current total to 106
  • Plan to accelerate the addition of DDS from 60 to 110 bringing the total to 170+ this year
  • New Partnership with Von Maur with 27 store footprint concentrated in the central US

Continue to be optimistic re long term opportunity in Japan

 

Direct: +34%

  • Significant growth across all channels
  • 51% of revs in Q1 vs. 44% LY
  • Sales +63% by owned stores
  • +4.3% comp increase
  • e-commerce +26% (19% of sales)
    • Driven by higher traffic and modest increase in conversion
    • Have reduced size and scope of markdowns as the channel shifts to a more full price model
  • Outlet revenues in line with expectations at $11mm

Gross Margin 55.7% in line with LY

  • Reflects higher cotton and labor offset by favorable channel mix

SG&A: deleveraged by 80bps due to F12 infrastructure investments made last year and a shift of marketing spend that will take place in Q2 of this year

 

BS:

  • Inventory: -4%
  • ~$7mm in inventory received in Q2 that was expected in Q1 accounting for 7pt difference inventory growth (would have been +3%)

 

F2013 Outlook:

 

2Q:

Revs $121-$123mm

MSD comp

Indirect revenue growth of LSD as VRA addresses issues of carry over inventory

GM in line with prior year as they work through remainder of high cost cotton

SG&A $48-49

Other income $1.5mm

EPS $0.34-$0.36

Tax 39%

Share count 40.5mm

 

3Q indirect sales growth expected to be LSD-MSD

 

Full year:

  • Net revs $535-$540mm
  • Included indirect growth of LSD
  • Expect 2H growth to be LSD-MSD as assortment changes
  • Comps MSD-HSD for the full year
  • GM expect to improve ~90bps for the full year up from previous guidance of 50bps
  • Better visibility in input costs
  • Favorable channel mix
    • EPS $1.68- $1.71
    • 39% tax rate
    • 40.5mm shares

 

Expected to open 19 stores

Capital spending remains at ~36mm

  

 

Q&A:

 

Revenue Guidance:

  • No expectation for higher churn in the channel
  • Primary reason is the weakness in spring product assortment and its impact on independent retailers working through carry over inventory
  • Reduction reflects reorder size vs initial orders

Back to College Strategy:

  • Optimistic re 2H due to marketing campaigns around back to college
  • Working hand in hand with partners to better understand the brand wide marketing that’s going on to help focus individual store marketing
  • Traditional marketing elements going to all doors

Direct Operating Margins:

  • Primary driver- earlier occupancy on some stores opening earlier expecting 8 stores in Q2, and 5 in Q3
  • Outlet sales - primary promotion is about $11mm welcoming loyal shoppers and moved through older inventory which impacted margins
  • Continue to strike the right balance of pricing in the outlet channel

Monthly Comp Cadence:

  • Nothing particularly dramatic

Indirect:

  • The balance between EOPs and reorders if 50/50 - currently a little heavy in EOP vs reorder but would prefer EOP to be less than 50% of reoders
  • Some retailers have too much inventory and the wrong assortment in stores
  • 25% of retailers dealing with some level of too much inventory or assortment
  • At any given time with 3300 retailers there is always some level of the element in the channel
  • Underperformance of Fall and Winter has increased the impact to some degree
  • Some of the problems stem of independents trying to have every style in every color
  • Reorders: focusing on synching supply and demand to fulfill orders with shorter lead times into the indirect segment.
  • Q1 sales growth negative when excluding DDS stores

Dillard's:

  • Originally anticipated $5mm but have not updated guidance given incremental openings
  • Sales/foot productivity in line with direct performance

Von Maur – New Dept. Store Distribution:

  • Launching into all 27 of their stores in conjunction with July release
  • Roughly half of what is currently in Dillard's, not unlike the start at DDS
  • DDS roughly 150 square feet, will start under 100 at Von Maur
  • Von Maur not starting with Bedding but rather core assortment
  • Expecting the GM to be slightly below that of the specialty store but OM essentially the same given the lack of labor cost

Carry Over Patterns:

  • Those launched last July and September which collectively underperformed
  • Patterns challenged the indirect segment
  • Independents have a little too much
  • Working to make sure independents are buying into the top selling patterns

New Store Productivity

  • Have been getting more favorable real estate
  • Focusing on having the right teams to open the store
  • Please with performance of stores that have opened YTD

Inventory Levels:

  • Result of internal efforts to evolve supply chain processes
  • Comfortable with ability grow inventory in line with sales over the long term

Mother Day Performance in Direct Stores:

  • Pleased with Mothers day - in line with expectations

Expansion plans:

  • Goal of expanding into central US
  • Continue to see a lot of data points pointing to the opportunity in the western US
  • A lot of e-commerce traffic growth is coming from the central to west US
  • 4 of top 5 markets of  e-commerce traffic channel growth coming from West and Hawaii

Third Quarter sales Decline

  • For indirect only

Comp:

  • No major change in ticket
  • Core drivers traffic and conversion

Rolling Luggage category:

  • In line with expectations overall though still a small piece of the business
  • Have recently been brought into DDS and is not quite meeting expectations
  • Have new styles coming out in the Fall that should have positive impact

VRA Baby

  • A historical challenged with new categories has been channel of distribution
  • A number of independent partners are right for the category
  • The real opportunity for baby gifting items are partners like DDS and Von Mar
  • Dillard's showed a favorable response to seeing some of the baby product two weeks ago
  • Will drive excitement and full price selling in the e-commerce channel

DC under Construction

  • Currently all of the channels distributed out of current DC which is at capacity
  • New DC will create capability to serve all of the various channels in a more specialized way

 

 


ANALYZING THE JOBS REPORT THROUGH THE LENS OF THE GENERAL ELECTION: MAY 2012 EDITION

CONCLUSION: As we advance through the presidential debate and nearer to the NOV general election, the dismal state of the US labor market will likely become an increasingly positive catalyst for the USD as a result of it being a negative catalyst for the incumbent and his Weak Dollar political agenda. Incremental easing out of the Fed remains a risk to our Strong Dollar thesis, though not one we see materializing in the immediate term.

 

As we wrote in the APR edition of this series:

 

“As it relates to our intermediate-term outlook for US growth, there isn’t much analysis we can add to this morning’s Jobs Report beyond what has been signaled via the red on your screens today. In short, we continue to anticipate slowing economic growth domestically over the intermediate term.”

 

To echo Keith’s comments on our Daily Morning Macro Call (email if you don’t yet have access) a +69k MoM gain in US Nonfarm Payrolls (SA) is an “absolute disaster”. Perhaps the greater disaster was the consensus expectation of a +150k gain. Global growth data and various market-based indicators have been slowing/sounding the alarm bells for literally three full months. The US is not decoupling. Refer to our APR 13 2Q12 Key Macro Themes presentation for a refresher on our thoughts here.

 

To access the replay podcast and the presentation materials, please copy/paste the following two links into the URL of your browser:

As an aside, we find it critically important in an election year to dig into the employment statistics in order to handicap the presidential election odds – particularly given the potential for a political sea change and its impact on the USD, which remains paramount as a leading indicator in our model for helping our clients stay ahead of major asset price inflations/deflations globally.

 

The USD currently is in a Bullish Formation. To us, that is signaling some combination of a few key factors: 

  1. No iQE4 upgrade in the immediate term;
  2. Romney taking polling share from Obama, a proponent of monetary policy that augers heavily on US currency debasement; and
  3. Europe imploding. 

ANALYZING THE JOBS REPORT THROUGH THE LENS OF THE GENERAL ELECTION: MAY 2012 EDITION - 1

 

As it relates to point #1, it is our view that the Bernank is handcuffed in the immediate term due to the political risk associated with pursuing an asset price inflation just ahead of or during the general election debate. A necessary ingredient of further monetary easing is likely fear mongering. Will Obama support such dire messaging on the campaign trail? That’s an important question to debate at the current juncture, but in reality Obama probably needs to spin the economy as positively as possible.

 

In addition to this political headwind, the Fed’s own measure of inflation expectations remain fairly elevated relative to the last occurrences of QE; suggesting to us that there is more downside to come in asset prices before they can justify acting. Even still, as Keith pointed out on our morning call this AM, the Federal Reserve defying reasonable expectations and jumping the gun with more “stimulus” is not an improbable scenario. Key upcoming catalysts on this front include: JUN 5 – Chuck Evans speaks to money marketeers in NYC; JUN 7 – Bernanke testifies to Congress on the US economic outlook; and JUN 20 – FOMC Rate Decision.

 

ANALYZING THE JOBS REPORT THROUGH THE LENS OF THE GENERAL ELECTION: MAY 2012 EDITION - 2

 

To point #2, we’re already seeing this show up in the data. On our own proprietary index, Obama’s odds of securing a reelection victory in NOV have fallen -720bps from their MAR 26 peak to 54.8%. This is coincident with Romney’s presidential odds on Intrade making higher-lows. Slides 38-42 of the aforementioned slide deck walk through the implications of this phenomenon in greater detail.


ANALYZING THE JOBS REPORT THROUGH THE LENS OF THE GENERAL ELECTION: MAY 2012 EDITION - 3

 

ANALYZING THE JOBS REPORT THROUGH THE LENS OF THE GENERAL ELECTION: MAY 2012 EDITION - 4

 

To point #3, not much else needs to be added beyond Keith and Matt Hedrick’s consistent coverage of the ongoing crisis within the European Monetary Union. Rumors be what they may, but our research is are hard pressed to see the GOP signing off on providing the IMF with both consent and sufficient funding to bail out Spain – or any other country or financial institution for that matter. As recently as last month, Speaker Boehner (R-OH) was on CNBC firmly staking the Republican opposition to further bailouts, bazookas, etc. Furthermore, if Spain were going to be “saved” in the immediate term, you’d likely see it show up in various market based leading indicators, which, as of now, is not the case.

 

ANALYZING THE JOBS REPORT THROUGH THE LENS OF THE GENERAL ELECTION: MAY 2012 EDITION - 5

 

As we advance through the presidential debate and nearer to the NOV general election, the dismal state of the US labor market will likely become an increasingly positive catalyst for the USD as a result of it being a negative catalyst for the incumbent and his Weak Dollar political agenda. Incremental easing out of the Fed remains a risk to our Strong Dollar thesis, though not one we see materializing in the immediate term.

 

Jumping back to the MAY Jobs Report, in order to net out the effect of the now-infamous NSA Birth/Death Adjustment, we subtract the NSA B/D Adjustment from the NSA MoM NFP number and then take the YoY delta from that. On this metric, MAY registered a sequential acceleration from APR’s awful print:

 

ANALYZING THE JOBS REPORT THROUGH THE LENS OF THE GENERAL ELECTION: MAY 2012 EDITION - 6

 

Looking at the Unemployment Rate SA, the headline number ticked up to 8.2%. By our math, which accounts for dramatic shifts in the size of the Labor Force by using a 10yr average Labor Force Participation Rate (just above a 30yr low of 63.8% in MAY), the MAY Hedgeye-Adjusted Unemployment Rate came in at 11.0%, which ticked down sequentially from last month’s 11.3% reading:

 

ANALYZING THE JOBS REPORT THROUGH THE LENS OF THE GENERAL ELECTION: MAY 2012 EDITION - 7

 

The following four charts compare two Strong Dollar presidents vs. two Weak Dollar presidents in the context of reelection cycles. With the exception of the BLS headline number, President Obama’s employment scorecard improved, very marginally, MoM. That being said, the broader trend in each of our three metrics – which we feel is the “true” state of the US labor market – continues to track painfully in the wrong direction for the incumbent.

 

ANALYZING THE JOBS REPORT THROUGH THE LENS OF THE GENERAL ELECTION: MAY 2012 EDITION - 8

 

ANALYZING THE JOBS REPORT THROUGH THE LENS OF THE GENERAL ELECTION: MAY 2012 EDITION - 9

 

ANALYZING THE JOBS REPORT THROUGH THE LENS OF THE GENERAL ELECTION: MAY 2012 EDITION - 10

 

ANALYZING THE JOBS REPORT THROUGH THE LENS OF THE GENERAL ELECTION: MAY 2012 EDITION - 11

 

Lastly, the following table highlights the nominal and percentage amount of job creation that has occurred in the US economy under each president’s watch through an equivalent point in their respective terms. Through his 40thfull month in office, Obama has grown US employment by +0.1%. This is only lagged by Bush’s -0.9% growth through his 40th month in office.

 

ANALYZING THE JOBS REPORT THROUGH THE LENS OF THE GENERAL ELECTION: MAY 2012 EDITION - 12

 

Have a great weekend, 

 

Darius Dale

Senior Analyst


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Short Covering Opportunity: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

POSITIONS: Long Utilities (XLU), Short Industrials (XLI)

 

I think it’s safe to say that consensus now agrees with Hedgeye on Growth Slowing. Now we have to deal with cleaning up their mess. Alongside immediate-term capitulation, we’re finally seeing a Short Covering Opportunity.

 

Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most: 

  1. Intermediate-term TREND resistance = 1369
  2. Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1315
  3. Long-term TAIL support = 1283 

In other words, we’re right there – right on the TAIL line. And I am making my call to start covering your shorts. Our gross long exposure to this market remains very low.

 

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Short Covering Opportunity: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - SPX


EMPLOYMENT DATA MIXED FOR RESTAURANT INDUSTRY

Employment data released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was mixed for the restaurant industry. Employment by age indicated that employment growth data continue to bode favorably for the quick service sector.  Food service industry hiring growth, however, is showing signs of rolling over.  A second sequential monthly decline in Leisure & Hospitality jobs in May is an important takeaway.

 

Employment by Age

 

As the chart below shows, all of the age cohorts we track showed positive growth in employment during the month of May.  Additionally, with the exception of the 25-34 YOA cohort, all of the data points registered sequential acceleration in the rate of employment growth from April to May.  Continuing strength in employment growth for the 20-24 YOA cohort is a positive for QSR.  We have favored quick service over casual dining for some time and, while that view is becoming more consensus, we still have more confidence in our favorite QSR names like JACK and SBUX than we do in our favorite casual dining names with the negative economic headwinds more likely to impact the more discretionary side of the restaurant industry.

 

EMPLOYMENT DATA MIXED FOR RESTAURANT INDUSTRY - Employment by Age

 

 

Industry Hiring

 

As implied by the Leisure & Hospitality employment data, which leads the specific food service data by one month, April saw year-over-year employment growth in the limited and full-service restaurant sectors slow sequentially.  The Leisure & Hospitality data for May implies flat-to-slightly up on a sequential basis for employment growth in the food service sector. However, May also saw the Leisure & Hospitality industry lose 9k jobs versus April.  This second successive month of job losses in the industry is a departure from the 20-40k job additions we saw from September through March.  In fact, this is the first time we have seen two consecutive months of job losses in Leisure & Hospitality since January 2010.

 

EMPLOYMENT DATA MIXED FOR RESTAURANT INDUSTRY - restaurant employment

 

EMPLOYMENT DATA MIXED FOR RESTAURANT INDUSTRY - leisure   hospitality

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 

 


It's Done

This note was originally published at 8am on May 18, 2012. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“I never see what has been done; I only see what remains to be done.”

-Buddha

 

I’ll have to differ with Buddha on the first part of that thought this morning. I can definitely see what has been done out there. After a -8.1% swan dive in the SP500 (-10.9% in the Russell) and a +71% rip in the VIX since the perma-bull March top, It’s Done.

 

Done. As in way oversold in the immediate-term done.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

We understand, fundamentally, why Asian, European, and US stocks have been going down since February-March. We understand, mathematically, why Commodity prices (and the Equities that track them) have been annihilated.

  1. #GrowthSlowing
  2. #DeflatingTheInflation
  3. #BernankeBubbles

Instead of banging your head against the wall trying to trade Facebook this morning, call up those hash tags on Twitter, and you’ll see that we’ve been leading on these topics for at least 3 months.

 

Way too many people confused Ben Bernanke’s January 25thPolicy To Inflate (commodities and stocks) as growth. Short-term pops in asset price inflation is not growth. It’s precisely that food and energy price inflation that perpetuated Growth Slowing.

 

If you get the Slope of Growth right, you’ll get a lot of other things right. If you get the slope (sequential direction) of both Growth and the US Dollar right, at the same time, you’re done.

 

Done as in, done selling high – going to Cash, done.

 

You can have the best bottom-up “ideas” in the world, but when The Correlation Risk goes to 1.0, that’s when almost everything you are long is done too. Done, as in the bad kind of done.

 

As of last night’s closing prices, here’s the immediate-term TRADE correlation between the big stuff and the US Dollar Index:

  1. SP500 = -0.98
  2. Euro Stoxx600 Index = -0.99
  3. CRB Commodities Index = -0.94

There is no “de-coupling.” There is no risk management in the broken sources who have led you over these cliffs in Q1 2008, 2010, 2011 … and now, again in 2012, either. “Again!” (Herb Brooks)

 

How many times do we have to allow our profession’s consensus brain-trust miss plainly obvious forecasts of rain while the macro data was soaking wet?

 

The short answer is that they are done too. The People don’t trust the Old Wall anymore. And they shouldn’t. It’s going to take a long time before we, as a profession, earn The People’s trust (and inflows into Equities) back.

 

On a cheerier note, this morning I’ll open with our lowest Cash (64%) and highest Equity (36%) positions in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model since January (over the course of the Growth Slowing cycle, we’ve moved from 0% US Equities to 24%, and maintained a 0% allocation to Commodities).

 

To be crystal clear on duration, I’m playing this for the bounce. When markets are viciously oversold like this on our immediate-term TRADE duration, that’s just what we do. It’s no different than when I was shorting the SP500 in March-April at immediate-term TRADE overbought signals. We aren’t perma anything. Risk works both ways. The risk now is to the upside.

 

Looking at immediate-term ranges in the LONG positions in the Hedgeye Portfolio, here’s where I stand in terms of immediate-term upside/downside in all 14 of our current positions:

  1. SP500 (SPY) = 1303-1344
  2. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) = $42.29-43.74
  3. US Healthcare (XLV) = $36.32-37.07
  4. Apple (AAPL) = $528-560
  5. China (CAF) = $19.41-20.44
  6. Brazil (EWZ) = 50.77-55.34
  7. Melco (MPEL) = 11.84-13.33
  8. Nike (NKE) = $104.14-107.79
  9. Lifepoint (LPNT) = $34.93-36.66
  10. Hologic (HOLX) = 16.81-17.71
  11. HCA Holdgings (HCA) = $25.21-26.19
  12. Urban Outfitters (URBN) = $25.46-27.26
  13. Liz Claiborne (FNP) = 11.78-13.11
  14. Starbucks (SBUX) = 51.63-56.14

It’s Done. I bought a handful of these positions in the last 2-days. #TimeStamped like any position you have taken. I don’t run from them at the lows. I buy them on red. All the while I’m trying to understand each and every factor of each position with my Research Team so that we can handicap the probability of where prices move within our ranges, across durations.

 

These ranges are immediate-term TRADE durations. From an intermediate-term (TREND) to long-term (TAIL) perspective, our models generate wider ranges of risk.

 

Generating good “ideas” is what every good research team in this business should be doing – both long and short. But having great performance on those ideas is highly dependent on getting the timing right. You’ll need a repeatable risk management process for that.

 

Our Research Team, led by our Director of Research, Daryl Jones, has just published their work on Facebook. If you’d like a copy, please email sales@Hedgeye.com. We won’t have a risk managed view of the stock until it opens and starts giving us price, volume, and volatility data.

 

Our immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, EUR/USD, and the SP500 are now $1521-1628, $106.78-111.52, $80.49-81.84, $1.26-1.28, and 1303-1344, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

It's Done - Chart of the Day

 

It's Done - Virtual Portfolio


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