• It's Here!

    Etf Pro

    Get the big financial market moves right, bullish or bearish with Hedgeye’s ETF Pro.

  • It's Here

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

 

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 1, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or -1.25% downside to 1294 and 0.36% upside to 1315. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 5/31 NYSE -124
    • Up from the prior day’s trading of -2264
  • VOLUME: on 5/31 NYSE 1327.72
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 72.73%
  • VIX:  as of 5/31 was at 24.06
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -0.33%%
    • Year-to-date increase of 2.82%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/31 closed at 1.74
    • Down from the day prior at 2.35 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


#GrowthSlowing – pick your high-frequency data pt this week from the bomb of Pending US Home Sales (-5.5% Apr) to yesterday’s US PMI of 52 (down -7.4% vs last month) to South Korean exports being negative in May (3rd consecutive month of y/y declines) to UK PMI of 45.9 in May (vs 50.5 in April); the concept of “de-coupling” is as dead as Keynes in 2012. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 40
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.06%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.53
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.56
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.28
    • Down from prior day’s trading at 1.30 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Nonfarm Payrolls, May, est. 150k (prior 115k)
  • 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, May, est. 8.1% (prior 8.1%)
  • 8:30am: Avg Hourly Earning (M/m), May, est. 0.2% (prior 0.0%)
  • 8:30am: Avg Weekly Hours, May, est. 34.5 (prior 34.5)
  • 8:30am: Personal Income, Apr., est. 0.3% (prior 0.4%)
  • 8:30am: Personal Spending, Apr., est. 0.3% (prior 0.3%)
  • 8:30am: PCE Core (M/m), Apr., est. 0.2% (prior 0.2%)
  • 8:58am: Markit US PMI (final), May, (prior 53.9)
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, May, est. 53.8 (prior 54.8)
  • 10am: ISM Prices Paid, May, est. 57 (prior 61)
  • 10am: Construction Spending (M/m), Apr., est. 0.4% (prior 0.1%)
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Senate not in session, House meets at 9am
    • Former Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush testifies at House Budget hearing
    • House Financial Svcs. panel holds hearing on cyber threats to capital markets, corporate accounts, 9:30am

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Payrolls in U.S. probably picked up from smallest gain in 6m
  • Toyota, Honda may post biggest rises in monthly auto sales
  • Euro-area unemployment reaches record 11% led by Spain, Italy
  • China manufacturing expands at weakest pace since Dec.
  • Disney names ex-Warner executive as film operation chairman
  • Wal-Mart holds its annual meeting today
  • ASCO conference this weekend; watch for data on J&J’s Zytiga
  • Goldman CEO Blankfein to be witness at Gupta’s trial, U.S. says
  • BP to pursue sale of $20b stake in Russian producer TNK-BP
  • Thomas H. Lee Partners said to be in lead to buy Party City
  • Acer, Toshiba said to unveil Windows 8 tablets to challenge IPad
  • German note yield drops below zero for first time
  • Liberty tells regulators it wants control of Sirius XM radio
  • Google loses court case to dismiss claims over digital books
  • Bernanke, China Inflation, Diamond Jubilee: Week Ahead June 2-9 

EARNINGS:

    • No major earnings reports scheduled for today 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

Bernanke’s Bubbles – this remains our short Commodities (long Dollar) call for Q2; oil is capitulating to immediate-term TRADE oversold this morning ($84.68 WTIC), but oil is also crashing (down -23% from the Feb high). There are plenty of large exposures to Oil, Gold, etc in the asset management community to be very aware of here. 

  • Mittal’s Price Squeezed in $960 Billion Steelmaking: Commodities
  • Brent Oil Falls Below $100 a Barrel for First Time Since October
  • Gold Falls in London as Stronger Dollar Curbs Investor Demand
  • Copper Falls Amid Signs European Crisis Is Hurting Economies
  • Commodities Drop to Lowest Level Since October on China, Europe
  • Copper Bears Rise to Eight-Month High as Hedge Funds Bet on Drop
  • Commodity Revenues at Top Banks Decline as Volatility Drops
  • BP to Pursue Sale of TNK-BP Shares as Billionaire Partners Bid
  • China’s Lead-Battery Exports May Fall as Output Capacity Cut
  • Palm Oil Slumps to Five-Month Low as Chinese Demand Set to Fall
  • LME Said to Get Assurance From Bidders on Keeping U.K. Base
  • Barry Callebaut Says Cocoa Bean Processing May Decline in Europe
  • Corn Futures to Extend Slump to 20-Month Low: Technical Analysis
  • Commodities Extend Fall on China Slowdown
  • China May Resume Nuclear Plant Approvals as Cabinet Passes Plan
  • Rubber Falls to Six-Month Low as China’s Output Decelerates
  • Thailand, Indonesia Agree Steps Needed to Halt Rubber Decline 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – we sold our China long position last month because our research was signaling an immediate-term acceleration in China’s growth slowing pattern; this morning’s PMI of 50.4 (vs 53.3 in April) confirms that – all of Asia was weak (has been since Feb/Mar), and consensus is now forced to agree.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team