TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 31, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 39 points or -1.39% downside to 1295 and 1.57% upside to 1334.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 5/30 NYSE -2264
- Down from the prior day’s trading of 1709
- VOLUME: on 5/30 NYSE 768.67
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 7.62%
- VIX: as of 5/30 was at 24.14
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 14.79%
- Year-to-date increase of 3.16%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/30 closed at 2.35
- Up from the day prior at 1.71
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 40
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.07%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.63
- Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.62
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.36
- Unchanged from prior day’s trading
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts (Y/y), May, (prior 11.2%)
- 8am: Fed’s Pianalto speaks on monetary policy in Cleveland
- 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, May, 150k (prior 119k)
- 8:30am: GDP (Q/q) (Annualized) 1Q S, est. 1.9% (prior 2.2%)
- 8:30am: Personal Consumption 1Q S, est. 2.9% (prior 2.9%)
- 8:30am: Core PCE (Q/q) 1Q S, est. 2.1% (prior 2.1%)
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, week of May 29, est. 370k (prior 370k)
- 9:45am: Chicago PMI, May, est. 56.8 (prior 56.2)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week of May 27, (prior -42)
- 10:00am: NAPM-Milwaukee, May, est. 53.4 (prior 52.9)
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- 10:30am: EIA natural gas change
- 11am: DOE inventories
- 11:00am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes in 2/15/2036 to 5/15/2042 range
GOVERNMENT:
- CFTC meets on hedge, market-making provisions of Volcker rule
- House in session, Senate holds pro forma session
- House Energy and Commerce panel hears from FCC Commissioner Robert McDowell on international proposals to regulate the Internet, 10am
- Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars holds forum on Chinese investment in North American energy, 9am
- Trial begins in Apple suit seeking to block Samsung products from U.S. market, before a judge at International Trade Commission; lasts through June 6
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Retailers report May sales data before market opens
- Euro-area inflation slowed more than economist est. in May
- CGI Group to buy Logica for $2.6b cash
- Oracle looked at Buddy Media before agreeing to acquire Vitrue
- Prudential Plc to buy Swiss Re’s SRLC for $621m
- German unemployment unchanged in May, adj. jobless rate falls
- Graff cancels $1b IPO in Hong Kong, citing falling stock mkts
- Maple provides update on plans for TMX Group at 12pm
- United to cut 1,300 jobs at Houston’s main airport
- U.S. stock exchanges propose changes to trading curbs
- Short sales of U.S. homes reached 3-yr high in 1Q: RealtyTrac
- Japan industrial production misses ests’ South Korea’s rises
- Australian business investment rises 6.1%, more than forecast
EARNINGS:
- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM CN), 5:50am, C$1.88
- Joy Global (JOY) 6am, $1.96; Preview
- Descartes Systems (DSG CN) 6am, $0.11
- Ciena Corp (CIEN) 7am, $(0.04)
- Movado (MOV) 7:30am, $0.25
- National Bank of Canada (NA CN) 7:45am, C$1.85
- Esterline Technologies (ESL) 4pm, $1.29
- Vera Bradley (VRA) 4:01pm, $0.29
- Ascena Retail Group (ASNA) 4pm, $0.36
- SAIC (SAI) 4:02pm, $0.33
- OmniVision (OVTI) 4:18pm, $0.22
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Nickel Slump Seen Ending as China Faces Ore Curbs: Commodities
- Gold Gains in London Trading as Weaker Dollar Bolsters Demand
- Oil Set for Biggest Monthly Drop in Three Years on Debt Crisis
- Copper Advances, Narrowing Monthly Decline, on German Figures
- Cocoa Rebounds on Speculation Lower Prices Will Spur More Demand
- Palm-Oil Shipments From Indonesia Seen Climbing on Ramadan
- China Plan to Open Metal Futures to Foreigners to Help LME
- Felda Targets $3.3 Billion in Biggest Share Sale Since Facebook
- PetroChina Seeks Oil Assets as Shale Gas Seen Years Away: Energy
- Soybeans Poised for Worst Month Since September on U.S. Planting
- Palm Oil Has Worst Monthly Loss Since 2009 on Europe Crisis
- Commodity, Stock Price Link Near 16-Year High: Chart of the Day
- Vale as Cheapest Miner Signals Buy to Aberdeen: Corporate Brazil
- Oil Set for Monthly Drop on Debt Crisis
- Marubeni to Borrow for Half of Gavilon Payment, Sell Assets
- Rubber Slumps to Six-Month Low on European Crisis: Tokyo Mover
- Dalian Soybeans May Drop on Bollinger Trend: Technical Analysis
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
