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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 31, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 39 points or -1.39% downside to 1295 and 1.57% upside to 1334. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 5/30 NYSE -2264
    • Down from the prior day’s trading of 1709
  • VOLUME: on 5/30 NYSE 768.67
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 7.62%
  • VIX:  as of 5/30 was at 24.14
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 14.79%
    • Year-to-date increase of 3.16%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/30 closed at 2.35
    • Up from the day prior at 1.71 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 40
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.07%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.63
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.62
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.36
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts (Y/y), May, (prior 11.2%)
  • 8am: Fed’s Pianalto speaks on monetary policy in Cleveland
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, May, 150k (prior 119k)
  • 8:30am: GDP (Q/q) (Annualized) 1Q S, est. 1.9% (prior 2.2%)
  • 8:30am: Personal Consumption 1Q S, est. 2.9% (prior 2.9%)
  • 8:30am: Core PCE (Q/q) 1Q S, est. 2.1% (prior 2.1%)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, week of May 29, est. 370k (prior 370k)
  • 9:45am: Chicago PMI, May, est. 56.8  (prior 56.2)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week of May 27, (prior -42)
  • 10:00am: NAPM-Milwaukee, May, est. 53.4 (prior 52.9)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural gas change
  • 11am: DOE inventories
  • 11:00am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes in 2/15/2036 to 5/15/2042 range 

GOVERNMENT:

    • CFTC meets on hedge, market-making provisions of Volcker rule
    • House in session, Senate holds pro forma session
    • House Energy and Commerce panel hears from FCC Commissioner Robert McDowell on international proposals to regulate the Internet, 10am
    • Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars holds forum on Chinese investment in North American energy, 9am
    • Trial begins in Apple suit seeking to block Samsung products from U.S. market, before a judge at International Trade Commission; lasts through June 6 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Retailers report May sales data before market opens
  • Euro-area inflation slowed more than economist est. in May
  • CGI Group to buy Logica for $2.6b cash
  • Oracle looked at Buddy Media before agreeing to acquire Vitrue
  • Prudential Plc to buy Swiss Re’s SRLC for $621m
  • German unemployment unchanged in May, adj. jobless rate falls
  • Graff cancels $1b IPO in Hong Kong, citing falling stock mkts
  • Maple provides update on plans for TMX Group at 12pm
  • United to cut 1,300 jobs at Houston’s main airport
  • U.S. stock exchanges propose changes to trading curbs
  • Short sales of U.S. homes reached 3-yr high in 1Q: RealtyTrac
  • Japan industrial production misses ests’ South Korea’s rises
  • Australian business investment rises 6.1%, more than forecast 

EARNINGS:

    • Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM CN), 5:50am, C$1.88
    • Joy Global (JOY) 6am, $1.96; Preview
    • Descartes Systems (DSG CN) 6am, $0.11
    • Ciena Corp (CIEN) 7am, $(0.04)
    • Movado (MOV) 7:30am, $0.25
    • National Bank of Canada (NA CN) 7:45am,  C$1.85
    • Esterline Technologies (ESL) 4pm, $1.29
    • Vera Bradley (VRA) 4:01pm, $0.29
    • Ascena Retail Group (ASNA) 4pm, $0.36
    • SAIC (SAI) 4:02pm, $0.33
    • OmniVision (OVTI) 4:18pm, $0.22 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • Nickel Slump Seen Ending as China Faces Ore Curbs: Commodities
  • Gold Gains in London Trading as Weaker Dollar Bolsters Demand
  • Oil Set for Biggest Monthly Drop in Three Years on Debt Crisis
  • Copper Advances, Narrowing Monthly Decline, on German Figures
  • Cocoa Rebounds on Speculation Lower Prices Will Spur More Demand
  • Palm-Oil Shipments From Indonesia Seen Climbing on Ramadan
  • China Plan to Open Metal Futures to Foreigners to Help LME
  • Felda Targets $3.3 Billion in Biggest Share Sale Since Facebook
  • PetroChina Seeks Oil Assets as Shale Gas Seen Years Away: Energy
  • Soybeans Poised for Worst Month Since September on U.S. Planting
  • Palm Oil Has Worst Monthly Loss Since 2009 on Europe Crisis
  • Commodity, Stock Price Link Near 16-Year High: Chart of the Day
  • Vale as Cheapest Miner Signals Buy to Aberdeen: Corporate Brazil
  • Oil Set for Monthly Drop on Debt Crisis
  • Marubeni to Borrow for Half of Gavilon Payment, Sell Assets
  • Rubber Slumps to Six-Month Low on European Crisis: Tokyo Mover
  • Dalian Soybeans May Drop on Bollinger Trend: Technical Analysis 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team