TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 30, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or -1.23% downside to 1316 and 0.34% upside to 1337.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 5/29 NYSE 1709
- Up from the prior day’s trading of 114
- VOLUME: on 5/29 NYSE 714.24
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 19.91%
- VIX: as of 5/29 was at 21.03
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -3.35%
- Year-to-date decrease of -10.13%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/29 closed at 1.71
- Down from the day prior at 2.03
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
GROWTH – 1st Commodities, then Bonds, and now Stocks getting it; the Old Wall’s economists do not, yet – but they will; we’ve yet to see Hyman or Hatzius cut their US GDP Growth estimates to where we or the bond market has them (1.7-1.9% US GDP is our best case, for now). Looking for that consensus capitulation, blaming Europe.
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.68
- Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.74
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.40
- Down from prior day’s trading at 1.46
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, week of May 25
- 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly sales
- 10am: Pending Home Sales (M/m), Apr., est. 0.0% (prior 4.1%)
- 10am: Pending Home Sales (Y/y), Apr., est. 22.0% (prior 10.8%)
- 11am: Fed to purchase $4.5b-$5.25b notes in 8/15/2020 to 5/15/2022 range
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell $25b 52-week bills
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4-week bills
- 1:20pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks on economy in San Antonio, Texas
- 1:30pm: Fed’s Dudley to speak on regional economy in New York
- 4:30pm: Fed’s Rosengren speaks in Worcester, Mass
- 5pm: API weekly petroleum inventories
GOVERNMENT:
- House returns to work following recess; Senate out until Jun 4
- President Obama signs U.S. Export-Import Bank reauthorization
- Commerce Dept. announces level of wind tower import tariffs
- Mitt Romney wins Texas, giving him enough delegates to clinch Republican nomination
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Euro-area economic confidence dropped more than est. in May
- America Movil discussed cooperation with KPN before offer
- Spain’s Ordonez says Bankia bailout terms still unknown
- Pep Boys terminates $1b merger with Gores Group
- Fiat to list in NY after CNH unit merger
- Apple’s CEO says focus is TV, sees closer Facebook ties
- Euro-area loans grew at slowest pace in 2 yrs. in April
- Atlantic Broadband said to seek $1.4b sale
- RIM shares plummet after surprise 1Q op loss
- BankAtlantic must face SEC disclosure fraud lawsuit
- Facebook’s Zuckerberg drops off Billionaires Index
EARNINGS:
- Fresh Market (TFM) 6am, $0.36
- Yingli Green (YGE) 6am, $(0.22)
- CorVel (CRVL) 6:15am
- Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) 7am, $0.40
- Daktronics (DAKT) 7am, $0.03
- RBC Bearings (ROLL) Bef-mkt, $0.63
- TiVo (TIVO) Aft-mkt, $(0.16)
- Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) Aft-mkt, $0.22
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Marubeni Follows Glencore to Boost Grain Trading: Commodities
- Brent Falls to 5-Month Low as U.S. Supplies Seen at 22-Year High
- Gold Falls a Second Day as Europe’s Debt Crisis Boosts Dollar
- Copper Drops as Spain’s Credit Rating Revives Crisis Concern
- Wheat Slides as U.S. Harvest Accelerates While Soybeans Decline
- Cocoa Falls as Ivory Coast’s Mid-Crop Harvesting Gathers Pace
- Felda Said to Seek $3.2 Billion in Year’s Second-Biggest IPO
- Iraq Begins First Oil, Gas Exploration Auction Since Saddam Era
- Japan Aluminum Buyers Said to Agree to Record Quarterly Fee
- Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index Drops to Lowest Since October
- Dollar’s Gold Backing Drops With Metal’s Price: Chart of the Day
- Pakistan Seen Shipping 100,000 Tons Sugar by September on Prices
- ONGC Plans Shale, Deepwater Strategy in Bid to Double Production
- Oil Drops as U.S. Stockpiles Seen Rising
- Rubber Inventory Climbing in China as Slowdown Cuts Demand
- Rubber Drops as Rising Thai Supply Adds to Chinese Stockpiles
- Palm Oil Set for Worst Monthly Loss Since 2009 on China Outlook
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
SPAIN – still crashing. IBEX down another -1.4% (immediate-term TRADE oversold) to a fresh new low (down -31% from the Feb top when Global Growth Slowing became readily apparent in our models); Russia down -27% from the March top and Italian bond yields ripping a move > 6.00% this morning; there is no “de-coupling” from this.
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – but the rumors of Chinese stimulus have, at least for today; the Shanghai Comp backed off at an important TRADE line of resistance (2393) last night and the Hang Seng got crushed again, down -1.9% - no follow through from the USA day of no volume US Equity buying (US volumes down -26% vs our composite avg of the down days in May).
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team