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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 30, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or -1.23% downside to 1316 and 0.34% upside to 1337. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 5/29 NYSE 1709
    • Up from the prior day’s trading of 114
  • VOLUME: on 5/29 NYSE 714.24
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 19.91%
  • VIX:  as of 5/29 was at 21.03
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -3.35%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -10.13%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/29 closed at 1.71
    • Down from the day prior at 2.03 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


GROWTH – 1st Commodities, then Bonds, and now Stocks getting it; the Old Wall’s economists do not, yet – but they will; we’ve yet to see Hyman or Hatzius cut their US GDP Growth estimates to where we or the bond market has them (1.7-1.9% US GDP is our best case, for now). Looking for that consensus capitulation, blaming Europe.

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.68
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.74
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.40
    • Down from prior day’s trading at 1.46 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, week of May 25
  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly sales
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales (M/m), Apr., est. 0.0% (prior 4.1%)
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales (Y/y), Apr., est. 22.0% (prior 10.8%)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $4.5b-$5.25b notes in 8/15/2020 to 5/15/2022 range
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $25b 52-week bills
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4-week bills
  • 1:20pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks on economy in San Antonio, Texas
  • 1:30pm: Fed’s Dudley to speak on regional economy in New York
  • 4:30pm: Fed’s Rosengren speaks in Worcester, Mass
  • 5pm: API weekly petroleum inventories

GOVERNMENT:

    • House returns to work following recess; Senate out until Jun 4
    • President Obama signs U.S. Export-Import Bank reauthorization
    • Commerce Dept. announces level of wind tower import tariffs
    • Mitt Romney wins Texas, giving him enough delegates to clinch Republican nomination

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Euro-area economic confidence dropped more than est. in May
  • America Movil discussed cooperation with KPN before offer
  • Spain’s Ordonez says Bankia bailout terms still unknown
  • Pep Boys terminates $1b merger with Gores Group
  • Fiat to list in NY after CNH unit merger
  • Apple’s CEO says focus is TV, sees closer Facebook ties
  • Euro-area loans grew at slowest pace in 2 yrs. in April
  • Atlantic Broadband said to seek $1.4b sale
  • RIM shares plummet after surprise 1Q op loss
  • BankAtlantic must face SEC disclosure fraud lawsuit
  • Facebook’s Zuckerberg drops off Billionaires Index

EARNINGS:

    • Fresh Market (TFM) 6am, $0.36
    • Yingli Green (YGE) 6am, $(0.22)
    • CorVel (CRVL) 6:15am
    • Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) 7am, $0.40
    • Daktronics (DAKT) 7am, $0.03
    • RBC Bearings (ROLL) Bef-mkt, $0.63
    • TiVo (TIVO) Aft-mkt, $(0.16)
    • Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) Aft-mkt, $0.22

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Marubeni Follows Glencore to Boost Grain Trading: Commodities
  • Brent Falls to 5-Month Low as U.S. Supplies Seen at 22-Year High
  • Gold Falls a Second Day as Europe’s Debt Crisis Boosts Dollar
  • Copper Drops as Spain’s Credit Rating Revives Crisis Concern
  • Wheat Slides as U.S. Harvest Accelerates While Soybeans Decline
  • Cocoa Falls as Ivory Coast’s Mid-Crop Harvesting Gathers Pace
  • Felda Said to Seek $3.2 Billion in Year’s Second-Biggest IPO
  • Iraq Begins First Oil, Gas Exploration Auction Since Saddam Era
  • Japan Aluminum Buyers Said to Agree to Record Quarterly Fee
  • Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index Drops to Lowest Since October
  • Dollar’s Gold Backing Drops With Metal’s Price: Chart of the Day
  • Pakistan Seen Shipping 100,000 Tons Sugar by September on Prices
  • ONGC Plans Shale, Deepwater Strategy in Bid to Double Production
  • Oil Drops as U.S. Stockpiles Seen Rising
  • Rubber Inventory Climbing in China as Slowdown Cuts Demand
  • Rubber Drops as Rising Thai Supply Adds to Chinese Stockpiles
  • Palm Oil Set for Worst Monthly Loss Since 2009 on China Outlook

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


SPAIN – still crashing. IBEX down another -1.4% (immediate-term TRADE oversold) to a fresh new low (down -31% from the Feb top when Global Growth Slowing became readily apparent in our models); Russia down -27% from the March top and Italian bond yields ripping a move > 6.00% this morning; there is no “de-coupling” from this.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – but the rumors of Chinese stimulus have, at least for today; the Shanghai Comp backed off at an important TRADE line of resistance (2393) last night and the Hang Seng got crushed again, down -1.9% - no follow through from the USA day of no volume US Equity buying (US volumes down -26% vs our composite avg of the down days in May).

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team