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May YoY growth should come in at +4-6%.

While average daily table revenues (ADTR) increased 28% over last year for the same week, we would’ve expected better.  MTD table revenues were HK$20.9 billion.  Throw in slots and four more weekdays left in the month, GGR should come in between HK$24.5 and HK$25 billion, an increase of only 4-6% YoY.  This week’s ADTR of HK$711 million declined 2% sequentially and was below the MTD of HK$775 million and April’s HK$773 million.  Not much positive to say the last few weeks.

ANOTHER WEAK WEEK IN MACAU - macau1

No major changes in market share from last week.  Wynn improved a little but is still trending below its recent trend.  We think Wynn will post below normal hold this month and market share should improve in June.  LVS is still way below where it should be following the opening of Sands Cotai Central.  We think combined market share should be in the 19-20%.  It will get there in our opinion but will be a slow climb.  Given the precipitous drop in the share price, most of the disappointment appears to be discounted.  MPEL’s share climbed back up this past week close to where it should be with the new competition. 

ANOTHER WEAK WEEK IN MACAU - macau3