Could eke out growth in April despite calendar setback
April may have rebounded from an unlucky March on the Strip. We're projecting April Strip gaming revenues to be up low to mid-single digits (+1 to +5%), assuming normal hold percentages. McCarran Airport traffic in April grew 2.7% while taxi trips fell 3.2% YoY. With April 2012 having two fewer weekend days than April 2011, any growth in the month should be seen as encouraging.
As always, baccarat is a wildcard. Baccarat volume and hold have been quite volatile the last few months but if we assume normal bacc hold along with an easy volume comp (-29%), bacc revenues could rebound in April. We expect modest slot revenue growth, driven by a low slot hold comparison (6.8%) and a continuation of the recent slot volume strength (YoY growth in 10 out of the last 12 months).
Here are our projections: