TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 22, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 42 points or -2.13% downside to 1288 and 1.06% upside to 1330.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 5/21 NYSE 2143
- Up from the prior day’s trading of -1586
- VOLUME: on 5/21 NYSE 798.10
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -31.32%
- VIX: as of 5/21 was at 22.01
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -12.31%
- Year-to-date decrease of -5.94%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/21 closed at 1.58
- Down from the day prior at 2.08
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.76
- Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.74
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.47
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.46
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 6:15am: Atlanta Fed President Lockhart talks in Hong Kong
- 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook retail sales
- 10am: Richmond Fed, May, est. 11 (prior 14)
- 10am: Existing Home Sales, Apr., est. 4.62m (prior 4.48m)
- 10am: Existing Home Sales (M/m), Apr., est. 3.0% (prior -2.6%)
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4-week bills
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $35b 2-yr notes
- 4:30pm: API inventories
GOVERNMENT:
- Republican presidential primaries in Arkansas, Kentucky
- Senate in session, House meets in pro forma session, 10am
- Senate Banking holds a hearing on derivatives rules required by Dodd-Frank; CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler, SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro will testify
- Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner attends Financial Stability
- Oversight Council mtg
- Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, Bureau of Safety and
- Environmental Enforcement Chief Jim Watson conduct forum on oil-well blowout preventers, federal oversight, 8am
- NRC advisory panel subcommittee on Fukushima meets to review guidance documents on task force recommendations, 8:30am
- FDIC Acting Chairman Martin Gruenberg speaks at American
- Securitization Forum’s annual meeting, 9am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- OECD said Europe’s debt crisis risks spiraling, damaging world economy; cuts 2012 euro-area GDP forecast to -0.1% from 0.2%
- Facebook fell 11% to $34.03 in 2nd day of trading
- U.S. antitrust regulators told EBay, Yelp to provide information on whether Google is competing unfairly, speeding up a probe that began a year ago, people familiar said
- Accor agreed to sell Motel 6 hotel chain to Blackstone- managed fund for $1.9b
- Fitch cuts Japan L-T ratings to A+; outlook negative
- U.S. sales of existing homes probably rose in April for 1st time in 3 months to 4.61m annual rate
- CFTC to release clearing proposal for index swaps, Gensler says
- Merkel, Hollande head for showdown on debt at EU summit
- U.K. inflation slowed more than economists forecast in April
- IMF says U.K. needs more monetary stimulus, possible tax cuts
- Former Yahoo! executive, former mutual fund manager at a unit of Ameriprise pleaded guilty to insider trading, the U.S. said
- MetLife seen scaling back annuities as CEO Kandarian unveils his plan to improve returns
- Spain borrowing costs rise at 6-month bill auction
- KKR said to be close to raising $2b for second Asia fund
- IAEA, Iran reach agreement on atomic inspections
- No IPOs expected to price today
EARNINGS:
- Williams-Sonoma (WSM) 6am, $0.32
- Express (EXPR) 7am, $0.49
- AutoZone (AZO) 7am, $6.25
- DSW (DSW) 7am, $0.90
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) 7am, $0.75
- Medtronic (MDT) 7:15am, $0.98
- Best Buy (BBY) 8am, $0.59
- Ralph Lauren (RL) 8am, $0.85
- Collective Brands (PSS) 4pm, $0.44
- Analog Devices (ADI) 4pm, $0.51
- Universal (UVV) 4pm, NA
- Dell (DELL) 4:01pm, $0.46
- PetSmart (PETM) 4:02pm, $0.73
- Guess? (GES) 4:04pm, $0.26
- Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) 4:05pm, $(0.54)
- Avago Technologies (AVGO) 4:05pm, $0.63
- Compuware (CPWR) 4:13pm, $0.14
- HEICO (HEI) 4:30pm, $0.37
- Qihoo 360 (QIHU) 5pm $0.15
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Diamond-Seller Choksi Takes on World With Bollywood: Commodities
- Wheat Falls as Rain in Russia and Ukraine May Aid Parched Crops
- Oil Drops as OECD Cuts Europe Growth, Iran Agrees to Inspection
- Gold Declines as Rally Prompts Sales and Physical Demand Falls
- Copper Falls 0.5% in New York Trading, Declines 0.2% in London
- Palm Oil Climbs for Fourth Day as 10% Drop Lures Investor Demand
- Robusta Coffee Falls in London on Speculation Price Rose Too Far
- U.S. Said to Oppose Easing Oil Sanctions at Iran Nuclear Talks
- Oil Supplies Grow as Seaway Relief Valve Looms: Energy Markets
- GrainCorp Climbs After Raising Full-Year Forecast to Record
- Cotton May Drop 23% by Year-End on Inventories: Chart of the Day
- Flint Hills Has Release at Corpus Christi Plant, NRC Filing Says
- BHP ‘Chopping Block’ Looms for Nickel, Aluminum Assets Amid Cuts
- Ships Deter Pirate Stalkers by Signaling Armed Guards’ Presence
- Indonesia May Cut June Palm Oil Export Tax to 18%: Association
- Brazil Set to Lose Out as Thailand Meets Chinese Sugar Demand
CURRENCIES
US DOLLAR – we bought back our bullish position in the US Dollar on red yesterday and still think it offers the most asymmetry to the upside of almost any big Global Macro trade; the fallout, if we continue to be right on that, will be in the Commodities – we re-shorted Gold yesterday as its immediate-term correlation to the USD is -0.89.
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
JAPAN – our bearish call on Japan is starting to pick up a broader audience (launched it in March); Fitch downgrades Japan to A+ this morning for some of the wrong reasons, but who actually reads what they say anyway? bottom line is that Japan has huge fiscal/debt issues; we re-shorted Yen on Friday and that’s reacting negatively on the Fitch headline, down -0.54% (vs USD).
INDIA – nope, it’s not all about Greece/Europe folks – India’s stock market stopped going up in February and now their fiat currency is in freefall (Rupee); Sensex failed at its 1st line of (16341) resistance last night and is down -12% from its Feb top. India is not China.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team