TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 17, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or -0.36% downside to 1320 and 1.98% upside to 1351.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 5/16 NYSE -1037
- Down from the prior day’s trading of -926
- VOLUME: on 5/16 NYSE 872.49
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 0.45%
- VIX: as of 5/16 was at 22.27
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 1.37%
- Year-to-date decrease of -4.83%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/17 closed at 2.34
- Down from the day prior at 2.35
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 37
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.77
- Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.76
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.48
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.47
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, week of May 12, est. 365k (prior 367k)
- 8:30am: Continuing Claims, week of May 5, est. 3225k (prior 3229k)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week of May 13
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, May
- 10am: Philadelphia Fed., May, est. 10 (prior 8.5)
- 10am: Leading Indicators, Apr., est. 0.1% from 0.3%
- 10am: Freddie Mac 30-yr mortgage
- 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes in 2/15/2036 to 5/15/2042 range
- 12pm IMF’s Blanchard speaks in Washington
- 12:35pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks in Kentucky
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $13b 10-yr TIPS (reopening)
- U.S. Treasury announces 2-, 5-, 7-yr auction sizes
GOVERNMENT:
- Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner discusses economy at Greater Baltimore Cmte. breakfast, 7:30am
- Commerce Dept. issues final ruling on solar panel imports from China, may impose additional anti-dumping duties, 9am
- Federal Mine Safety and Health Review Commission meets on whether safeguard notices sufficiently protect workers, 10am
- Aubrey McClendon, CEO of Chesapeake Energy; and Thomas Farrell II, CEO of Dominion Resources, at Energy Central event, 2pm
- SEC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 2pm
- U.S. Postal Service announces plan for closing some mail- processing plants
- President Obama’s schedule TBA
- House, Senate in session:
- House Financial Svcs holds hearing on settlement practices of U.S. financial regulators, 10am
- Senate Finance holds hearing on whether the Social Security Administration is meeting its responsibilities, 10am
- House Financial Svcs panel holds hearing on ability of U.S. insurance, reinsurance firms to compete internationally, 2pm
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Facebook IPO expected to price tonight; current range $34- $38-shr
- Wal-Mart may show 1Q gross margin pressure in earnings report today
- Japan’s economy grows a faster-than-expected 4.1% in 1Q
- Companies mentioned at the Ira Sohn conference yday may move
- Spain sells EU2.49 billion bonds, just below maximum target
- JPMorgan’s trading losses have surged in recent days: NYT
- Canadian Pacific proxy vote today as Bill Ackman seeks seats
- Paulson says likes CVR Energy as Icahn may resell oil refiner
EARNINGS:
- Children’s Place Retail Stores (PLCE) 6am, $1.06
- Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD) 6am, $(0.67)
- Buckle (BKE) 7am, $0.76
- Cato (CATO) 7am, $1.07
- Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT) 7:04am, $1.04
- Dangdang (DANG) 7:28am, $(0.22)
- Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) 7:30am, $0.97
- Precision Castparts Corp (PCP) 8am, $2.27
- Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) 8:30am, $1.81
- Computer Sciences Corp (CSC) 8:30am, $0.20
- GameStop Corp (GME) 8:30am, $0.54
- Ross Stores Inc (ROST) 8:30am, $0.93
- Teekay LNG Partners LP (TGP) 8:30am, $0.51
- Teekay Corp (TK) 8:30am, $(0.35)
- Teekay Offshore Partners LP (TOO) 8:30am, $0.38
- Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ) 4pm, $0.11
- Gap Inc/The (GPS) 4pm, $0.45
- Intuit Inc (INTU) 4pm, $2.48
- Autodesk Inc (ADSK) 4:02pm, $0.47
- Aruba Networks Inc (ARUN) 4:03pm, $0.16
- Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) 4:04pm, $0.24
- Brocade Communications Systems Inc (BRCD) 4:05pm, $0.12
- Salesforce.com Inc (CRM) 4:05pm, $0.34
- Aeropostale Inc (ARO) 4:15pm, $0.13
- Youku (YOKU) 4:30pm, $(1.19)
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Chalco Target as Mongolia Seeks to Bar State Deals: Commodities
- Oil Trades Near Six-Month Low as ECB Curtails Greek Bank Lending
- China Seen Toppling India as Biggest Gold Market on Demand
- Gold Demand Fell 4.6% in First Quarter on Lower Jewelry Buying
- Gold Rebounds as Slump to This Year’s Low Spurs Investor Buying
- Copper Rises on Speculation About Further Fed Growth Measures
- Wheat Set for Longest Winning Streak Since January on Dryness
- London Metal Exchange Reports Net Income Declined 19% Last Year
- Gas Breaks Oil Link as Gazprom Price Power Fades: Energy Markets
- Cotton Stockpiling in China to Continue as Reserves Expand
- CME Pulls Grain-Trade Plan Two Weeks After Bid to Match ICE
- Gold May Beat Silver Rallying to $1,600: Technical Analysis
- China Postal Express IPO to Fund Online-Shopping Push: Freight
- Rubber Climbs Most in Four Months on Japanese Growth, Crude Oil
- Oil Rises From Six-Month Low on Japan Data
- Hong Kong Bourse Should Lose Monopoly If It Wins LME, Says Rival
- First Indian Shale Gas Seen Four Years Off as China Output Nears
CURRENCIES
US DOLLAR –get USD right, and you’ll get most other things big beta right. USD is immediate-term TRADE overbought as Gold, Oil, SPY, AAPL etc go immediate-term TRADE oversold. If you’re going to cover shorts and dip your toes on the long side of this thing, this is the spot (for a trade).
EUROPEAN MARKETS
SPAIN - way oversold after it crashed; mean reversion bounces across Europe haven’t happened yet, but they will (if they don’t, our entire profession should just go to 100% cash and pray). Spanish stocks go green after the bond auction #encouraging, for a trade.
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – up +1.4% overnight after taking a good hard look at our 2336 TREND line of support and holding it; Shanghai Comp has outperformed SP500 by more than +1100bps since April 1st; that’s the most bullish thing we can tell you (next to down oil) for Global Growth.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
