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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 17, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or -0.36% downside to 1320 and 1.98% upside to 1351. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 5/16 NYSE -1037
    • Down from the prior day’s trading of -926
  • VOLUME: on 5/16 NYSE 872.49
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 0.45%
  • VIX:  as of 5/16 was at 22.27
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 1.37%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -4.83%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/17 closed at 2.34
    • Down from the day prior at 2.35 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 37
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.77
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.76
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.48
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.47 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, week of May 12, est. 365k (prior 367k)
  • 8:30am: Continuing Claims, week of May 5, est. 3225k (prior 3229k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week of May 13
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, May
  • 10am: Philadelphia Fed., May, est. 10 (prior 8.5)
  • 10am: Leading Indicators, Apr., est. 0.1% from 0.3%
  • 10am: Freddie Mac 30-yr mortgage
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes in 2/15/2036 to 5/15/2042 range
  • 12pm IMF’s Blanchard speaks in Washington
  • 12:35pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks in Kentucky
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $13b 10-yr TIPS (reopening)
  • U.S. Treasury announces 2-, 5-, 7-yr auction sizes 

GOVERNMENT:

  • Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner discusses economy at Greater Baltimore Cmte. breakfast, 7:30am
  • Commerce Dept. issues final ruling on solar panel imports from China, may impose additional anti-dumping duties, 9am
  • Federal Mine Safety and Health Review Commission meets on whether safeguard notices sufficiently protect workers, 10am
  • Aubrey McClendon, CEO of Chesapeake Energy; and Thomas Farrell II, CEO of Dominion Resources, at Energy Central event, 2pm
  • SEC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 2pm
  • U.S. Postal Service announces plan for closing some mail- processing plants
  • President Obama’s schedule TBA
  • House, Senate in session:
    • House Financial Svcs holds hearing on settlement practices of U.S. financial regulators, 10am
    • Senate Finance holds hearing on whether the Social Security Administration is meeting its responsibilities, 10am
    • House Financial Svcs panel holds hearing on ability of U.S. insurance, reinsurance firms to compete internationally, 2pm 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Facebook IPO expected to price tonight; current range $34- $38-shr
  • Wal-Mart may show 1Q gross margin pressure in earnings report today
  • Japan’s economy grows a faster-than-expected 4.1% in 1Q
  • Companies mentioned at the Ira Sohn conference yday may move
  • Spain sells EU2.49 billion bonds, just below maximum target
  • JPMorgan’s trading losses have surged in recent days: NYT
  • Canadian Pacific proxy vote today as Bill Ackman seeks seats
  • Paulson says likes CVR Energy as Icahn may resell oil refiner 

EARNINGS:

    • Children’s Place Retail Stores (PLCE) 6am, $1.06
    • Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD) 6am, $(0.67)
    • Buckle (BKE) 7am, $0.76
    • Cato (CATO) 7am, $1.07
    • Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT) 7:04am, $1.04
    • Dangdang (DANG) 7:28am, $(0.22)
    • Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) 7:30am, $0.97
    • Precision Castparts Corp (PCP) 8am, $2.27
    • Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) 8:30am, $1.81
    • Computer Sciences Corp (CSC) 8:30am, $0.20
    • GameStop Corp (GME) 8:30am, $0.54
    • Ross Stores Inc (ROST) 8:30am, $0.93
    • Teekay LNG Partners LP (TGP) 8:30am, $0.51
    • Teekay Corp (TK) 8:30am, $(0.35)
    • Teekay Offshore Partners LP (TOO) 8:30am, $0.38
    • Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ) 4pm, $0.11
    • Gap Inc/The (GPS) 4pm, $0.45
    • Intuit Inc (INTU) 4pm, $2.48
    • Autodesk Inc (ADSK) 4:02pm, $0.47
    • Aruba Networks Inc (ARUN) 4:03pm, $0.16
    • Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) 4:04pm, $0.24
    • Brocade Communications Systems Inc (BRCD) 4:05pm, $0.12
    • Salesforce.com Inc (CRM) 4:05pm, $0.34
    • Aeropostale Inc (ARO) 4:15pm, $0.13
    • Youku (YOKU) 4:30pm, $(1.19)

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • Chalco Target as Mongolia Seeks to Bar State Deals: Commodities
  • Oil Trades Near Six-Month Low as ECB Curtails Greek Bank Lending
  • China Seen Toppling India as Biggest Gold Market on Demand
  • Gold Demand Fell 4.6% in First Quarter on Lower Jewelry Buying
  • Gold Rebounds as Slump to This Year’s Low Spurs Investor Buying
  • Copper Rises on Speculation About Further Fed Growth Measures
  • Wheat Set for Longest Winning Streak Since January on Dryness
  • London Metal Exchange Reports Net Income Declined 19% Last Year
  • Gas Breaks Oil Link as Gazprom Price Power Fades: Energy Markets
  • Cotton Stockpiling in China to Continue as Reserves Expand
  • CME Pulls Grain-Trade Plan Two Weeks After Bid to Match ICE
  • Gold May Beat Silver Rallying to $1,600: Technical Analysis
  • China Postal Express IPO to Fund Online-Shopping Push: Freight
  • Rubber Climbs Most in Four Months on Japanese Growth, Crude Oil
  • Oil Rises From Six-Month Low on Japan Data
  • Hong Kong Bourse Should Lose Monopoly If It Wins LME, Says Rival
  • First Indian Shale Gas Seen Four Years Off as China Output Nears

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

 US DOLLAR –get USD right, and you’ll get most other things big beta right. USD is immediate-term TRADE overbought as Gold, Oil, SPY, AAPL etc go immediate-term TRADE oversold. If you’re going to cover shorts and dip your toes on the long side of this thing, this is the spot (for a trade).


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS

SPAIN  - way oversold after it crashed; mean reversion bounces across Europe haven’t happened yet, but they will (if they don’t, our entire profession should just go to 100% cash and pray). Spanish stocks go green after the bond auction #encouraging, for a trade.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS

CHINA up +1.4% overnight after taking a good hard look at our 2336 TREND line of support and holding it; Shanghai Comp has outperformed SP500 by more than +1100bps since April 1st; that’s the most bullish thing we can tell you (next to down oil) for Global Growth.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team