IGT the big winner
In terms of ship share, we believe IGT was the only winner in 1Q 2012, on a sequential basis. The slot market remains super competitive with WMS and Konami particularly aggressive on pricing. Q1 replacements were down slightly YoY to an estimated 14,900 units but used units are accounting for a bigger % of sales. In Ohio, for example, ~15% of the units are used/participation. Casinos are increasingly putting caps on participation units and showing a preference for preferring fixed fee and 80/20 deals vs. % coin in (WAP) type games in an effort to improve margins in a low growth environment.
Here are the estimated CQ1 2012 market shares (based on shipped units):
- IGT: 33%, up from 30% in CQ1 2011
- WMS: 19%, down from 21% in CQ1 2011 despite aggressive pricing
- BYI: 14%, unchanged YoY
- KNM: 17%, down from 20% in CQ1 2011
- Konami was admittedly very aggressive on pricing in Q1
- We believe Konami growth is stalling and they will likely be a share donor this year
- MGAM: 2%, double the 1% in CQ1 2011
- ALL: 11%, unchanged YoY (our guess until the company reports next quarter)
