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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 16, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 34 points or -0.50% downside to 1324 and 2.05% upside to 1358. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 5/15 NYSE -926
    • Up from the prior day’s trading of -2114
  • VOLUME: on 5/15 NYSE 868.62
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 8.20%
  • VIX:  as of 5/15 was at 21.97
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 0.46%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -6.11%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/15 closed at 2.35
    • Down from the day prior at 2.50 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.77
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.50
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Apps., week of May 11 (prior 1.7%)
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, Apr., est. 685k (prior 654k)
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts (M/m) Apr., est. 4.7% (prior -5.8%)
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, Apr., est. 730k (prior 764k, revised)
  • 8:30am: Building Permits (M/m) Apr., est. -4.5% (prior 4.5%)
  • 8:30am: ECB monetary policy conference; participants include President Mario Draghi
  • 9:15am: Industrial Prod., Apr., est. 0.6% (prior 0.0%)
  • 9:15am: Capacity Util., Apr., est. 79.0% (prior 78.6%)
  • 9:15am: Manufacturing (SIC) Production, Apr
  • 10:30am: DOE Inventories
  • 12:30pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks on economy in Kentucky
  • 2pm: Minutes of April FOMC Meeting 

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate in session:
    • Senate Health holds hearing on health care delivery systems, with Coastal Medical, Humana officials, 10am
    • Senate Commerce holds oversight hearing on FCC, with Chairman Julius Genachowski, 2:30pm
    • House Financial Services subcommittee holds hearing on effects of Dodd-Frank Act, 10am
    • House Ways and Means panel holds hearing on tax-exempt organizations, 10am
    • House Financial Services subcommittee holds hearing on market access for U.S. financial firms in China, 2pm
    • House Financial Services panel holds hearing on FDIC oversight with Lennar Corp. CEO Stuart Miller, 2pm
    • House Small Business holds hearing on U.S. trade agenda, 1pm
    • World Bank President Robert Zoellick speaks at Economic Club of Washington, 12pm 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • FOMC releases minutes of April 24-25 meeting
  • Facebook said to increase size of IPO to 421m shrs
  • Housing starts in U.S. probably rebounded from five-month low
  • Euro-region inflation slowed in April, March exports dropped
  • U.K. unemployment unexpectedly falls in sign of stabilization
  • Greek leaders meet on new election after European stocks fall
  • Carlyle said to seek $3.5 billion for fourth Asia buyout fund
  • Berkshire Hathaway took new stakes in Viacom, General Motors
  • Verizon in $63 billion faceoff with AT&T over family plans
  • Investor Whitworth holds $610m PepsiCo stake, meets w/ co.
  • GE to buy U.S., Australian mining-equipment cos.
  • Australian consumer confidence stagnates near year’s lows
  • Soros, Eton Park raised gold ETP holdings before price drops
  • House Financial Services subcommittee holds hearing on effects of Dodd-Frank Act
  • NYSE Euronext removed from bidding for London Metals Exchange
  • EADS 1Q profit misses est.; raises 2012 EPS outlook 

EARNINGS:

    • Staples (SPLS) 6am, $0.30
    • ValueVision (VVTV) 6:30am, ($0.19)
    • Chico’s FAS (CHS) 6:55am, $0.30
    • Deere & Co (DE) 7am, $2.53
    • Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF) 7am, $0.01
    • Sears Canada (SCC CN) 7am, C$0.03
    • Target (TGT) 7:30, $1.01
    • Brady (BRC) 8am, $0.57
    • Eagle Materials (EXP) 8:30am, $0.24
    • Hot Topic (HOTT) 4pm, $0.08
    • Ltd Brands (LTD) 4:30pm, $0.40
    • Ctrip.com (CTRP) 5pm, $0.17
    • Netease.com (NTES) 6pm, $1.01 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COMMODITIES – definitely seeing some capitulation in Bernanke’s Bubbles (our Top Macro Theme issued in April) – Gold finally oversold at -14% from its YTD high; Copper getting spanked -1.7% to immediate-term oversold (-12% from its Feb Growth Slowing high). 

  • Commodities Drop Near Five-Month Low on Greek Euro Exit Concern
  • Gold Eclipsed by Dollar Haven as Goldman Sees Rally: Commodities
  • Palm Oil Slumps Most in 14 Months in Record Volume on Euro Debt
  • BHP Won’t Meet $80 Billion Spending Target as Minerals Fall
  • Gold Tumbles Into Bear Market on Concern Greece May Leave Euro
  • Copper Drops for Fourth Day as Greece Remains Without Government
  • Corn Declines as U.S. Planting Nears Completion, Lowering Risks
  • Sugar Falls as Brazil’s Weaker Currency May Accelerate Exports
  • NYSE Euronexit Is Removed From Bidding for London Metal Exchange
  • Crude Palm-Oil Futures Volume Reaches Record 63,019 Contracts
  • Soros, Eton Park Raised Gold ETP Holdings Before Price Drop
  • Seaway No Guarantee for Goldman’s WTI-Brent Bet: Energy Markets
  • Eni Follows BG, Anadarko With More Gas Finds off Eastern Africa
  • Inmet Capitalizes on Junk Demand for Copper Mine: Canada Credit
  • GSCI Index Decline to Near Five-Month Low
  • Oil Drops to Six-Month Low on Rising Stockpiles, Greek Crisis
  • Rubber Falls to Four-Month Low as Greek Woes May Cut Demand

 THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


EUROPE – we don’t see Greece “leaving the Euro” anytime soon (pundits might, but the market doesn’t either or the Euro would catch a bid – weakest stores (countries) stay in the currency base and Euro goes to $1.22); what we do see is capitulation (immediate-term) to oversold lows in Spain and Russia this morning (crashing markets, down -26% and -22% from their YTD tops).

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – probably the most misunderstood and under-reported situation in the world right now is Japan (Nikkei down 21 of the last 28 days = -14.2% draw-down) and the BOJ just saw the lowest demand (1st shortfall vs the 600B they wanted to issue) for JGBs since Oct 2010. Greece is nothing compared to this.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


JCP: Making the Call on Air

Conclusion: This story is playing out like it should fundamentally. That’s no surprise to us. What did come as a shocker was how management approached the quality of its results, and seemed to add every bit of opacity within its grasp. Is Ullman still there? There’s a long time to wait for any signs of momentum (on the upside) here. In the meantime you’re paying 15.2x a made-up non-GAAP EPS number that might or might not materialize before 2014.

 

 

As big as this event seems to be for JCP, it was really written in the cosmos. We didn’t exactly have a soft stance on this one.

 

June 11, 2011: HedgeyeRetail on The Closing Bell with Maria Bartiromo “The Street is at $2.77 [in 2013]. I think they’ll be lucky to earn a buck.”

 

June 11, 2011 Interview on "The Closing Bell" 

 

What are we looking at today? After assuring the investment community that JCP would earn adjusted EPS of $2.16 (estimates had been coming down from $2.77), and GAAP EPS of $1.59, today he pulled the GAAP number. Earnings are going to come in closer to a buck.

 

The message he left us with is “We’ll still get to adjusted earnings of $2.16 – which is excluding all restructuring charges – but we’re not going to tell you what our GAAP target is. We’ll include restructuring benefits in our results, but not the costs associated with those benefits. As our results change each quarter, we’ll call the delta between what we report and the $2.16 a ‘restructuring charge’."

 

Seriously Ron…we’d expect this from your predecessor’s administration. But you? With your high-class pedigree? Someone is giving you bad advice.

 

Let us hit on a couple of items we liked in the quarter.

1) The dividend cut: The reality is that JCP has no business paying a dividend. 1Q Cash from Operations was –($577mm). Last year it was +$52mm. That's a $629mm hole. Its cash balance was down $928mm yy. JCP HAD to cut the dividend. In fact, we’d be concerned had they not.

2) It would be disingenuous for us not to state – flat out – that the store concept sounds very exciting. With dedicated shops from brands like Nike, Liz Claiborne, Tourneau, Levi’s, DC Shoes and about 95 other ‘higher-end-than-KSS and even Macy’s brands, this concept has teeth. We still don’t think that the goal of ‘a store for everybody’ is achievable in any way, shape or form. But the store as it is described today certainly has mid-upper mass appeal.

3) We still like the bargaining power JCP will have with vendors as it goes about its strategy. Johnson at one point made a comment like “even Gold Toe (Gildan) wants a shop in shop.” They also noted that there will be a very large Levi’s presence, indicating that VFC’s Lee and Wrangler did not make the cut, or play the price cut game required to secure the business. In the end, this is good for JCP. (We still think that the supply chain implications for the rest of the industry are extremely negative).

 

What we did not like…

1) From the very start of the presentation, management’s attitude was surprisingly cagey. They took the few statistics they they were willing to share , such as average spend and conversion, and attempted to twist them around to suggest that comping down 18.9% had some kind of positive read through. Let’s face some facts, comping down 20% and putting up a 28% decline in internet sales when Macy’s reported 33% growth in e-tail is just flat-out embarrassing.

2) It would have been so much better for them if he stood up and said “Hey everybody. Let’s get right to the heart of the matter. I realized this quarter that the forecastability of near-term customer behavior and competitive response in this business is much harder than what I am accustomed to. I’m pulling guidance accordingly because I don’t want our team focused on the wrong metrics. I’m going to quantify for you what deviated from my expectations, what I learned, and how I’m changing it.” For a guy with Johnson’s level of integrity, this could have taken an otherwise awful quarter and flipped it 180.

3) Though we like the concept in theory as noted above, we have major concerns about execution, capital investment needed to achieve the goals, and the duration mismatch between Johnson and investors (he gets paid in 6 ½ years when his warrants vest – few investors have that luxury).

4) The company identified additional cost saves – we’re guessing about another $50mm above the previously stated $900mm run rate JCP should achieve by year end (they indicated north of just $10-$20mm). Mind you, this means that it could get to this run rate on Jan 31, and would be a FY14 earnings event. Nonetheless, when a company puts up one of the most miserable top lines in recent memory, we rarely want to see Retail Austerity to sustain earnings. Management probably reads a statement like this and says ‘c’mon Wall Street…you want earnings and now you tell me not to cut costs?’  Our answer is “Yes. Some people want earnings via cost-cuts today, and they could care less about tomorrow. We’d rather you invest today and crush Kohl’s and Macy’s tomorrow.”

5) We have to point out the irony of management’s statement about employee morale, and how “it has never been better” since they switched from a commission to a salaried workforce. So let me get this straight, the employees are happy with sales down 21%? Wow…  Johnson’s point is a good one. A salaried workforce leads to happier workers, which leads to better service, more customers, and perhaps better conversion (though we could argue against that one). In the end he thinks it is a big positive. He’s probably right. But again, we’d note that it is a positive within his 7-year duration – not the 2-3 year horizon by the average long-term investor.

6)      The shop in shop rollout will take time. Johnson is planning on rolling out 2-3 shops per month through December 2015 until JCP has reached 100 overall. Right now, we know ~30 of these shops (see matrix below). Additionally, there seems to be no shortage of applicants as JCP received 110 applications from brands interested in partaking in the new concept. Though the actual rollout may consist of 2-3 brands per month, our sense is we will be introduced to those participating in the "shops" in larger groups well ahead of their actual rollout not unlike we were yesterday. Assuming JCP maintains the 2-3 shop schedule, the rollout and ensuing change to the merchandise assortment could looking something like the roadmap below with 100% of the assortment refreshed come 2015 (47% will be changed by this August). 

 

JCP: Making the Call on Air - Shops cube

 

JCP: Making the Call on Air - Merchandising Roadmap

 

We’re at $1.00 for the year, and $1.75 in 2014. Timing is a very important consideration. If the company gets closer to $2.16 in 2014, then people will look towards a number above $3 another year out as the excitement around a big comp rebound and associated leverage ensues. That would, in fact, be an exciting story. But the absolute earliest there will be any form of visibility into any such rebound happens well into 2013. In the meantime you’re paying 15.2x a made-up non-GAAP EPS number that might or might not materialize before 2014. We can think of dozens of other places we’d rather be.

 

 

Brian P. McGough
Managing Director

 

 

 

 

Below are the highlights from managements presentation last evening:

 

"If I were to write the headlines for today, here is what I’d say. Our first 90 days are a little tougher than we expected. We expected the sales to be down, double-digit. They at the low end to that range, of our expectation, but the good news is, the transformation from my perspective is way ahead of schedule." - Ron Johnson, CEO

 

Progress to Date

  • 2012 is the year of transformation; 2013 to be the year when takeoff starts, currently on day 105
  • Expect to earn "good money" this year

 

 

First Quarter Results

 

"This has been a very tough quarter for us, but not necessarily unanticipated." - Michael Kramer, COO

 

  • Revenues down 20%, comps down 18.9%
  • GAAP EPS loss of $0.75
  • Adjusted EPS of -$0.25
  • Feb sales down 21%, saw 300 bps improvement in back half of the Q
  • Continue to expect the back half of the year to be better
  • Traffic down 10%
  • Traffic down 6% Monday-Thursday
  • Traffic down 12% on the weekends
    • Conversion: 21% this year vs. 22% last year
    • Average spend per visit $46 this year vs. $48 LY
    • Primary issue is traffic due to like of couponing- 40% of last years transactions not only included a product on sales but had an additional coupon

 

Gross Margin -290 bps (270 bps due to selling margin reduction)

 

 JCP: Making the Call on Air - GM chart 1

 

JCP: Making the Call on Air - GM chart 2

 

 

Expense Savings:

  • Incurred $76mm in restructuring charges in Q1

 

 JCP: Making the Call on Air - restructuring charges

  • For the quarter, saved $121mm of SG&A YoY
  • Now Committed to more than $900mm run rate of savings in 2013

 

3 opportunities to reduce costs

 

Inventory management: moving more to chase mode allowing merchants to really go after hits and misses

  • Uncovered 17 weeks of inventory
  • Department stores typically operate 15-18 weeks of inventory
  • Some hard goods operate closer to 10-13 weeks (WSM)
  • Feel JCP can get this to 13 weeks of inventory
  • Had way to many skus with excessive weeks of supply
  • By the end of 2012, this will free up $500mm of working capital

 

Legacy Systems: Streamlining internal systems

  • 492 unique applications
  • JCP should be operating around roughly 100 systems
  • 88% of the applications were customized
  • Translates to 90% of IT spend goes to maintenance
  • 10% goes to strategic initiatives

 

Simplify Processes: Eliminating false sense of precision

  • Extra processes create false precision
  • Of the $900mm, have already identified and are executing on $650mm of it

 

Progress Update:

  • Starting to act like a startup- need to be nimble and fast
  • Marketing is gaining a lot of mindshare but is not communicating the pricing message and driving traffic
  • Marketing is entertaining but not doing the hard work
  • Now running the "Do the Math" advertising

 JCP: Making the Call on Air - do the math

  • Need to convey JCP still has promotions, just not 500
  • Started doing ROPs in major publications last week highlighting month long values
  • Will be running ads like this every Thursday or Friday going forward
  • Changed marketing to the "Big Deal" starts today
  • Working harder from moving marketing from building a brand to convey pricing
  • Did not have enough impact in the store for pricing

 

Strengthened the team:

  • Added 41 people at the VP, SVP, EVP team level
  • 20 internal promotions
  • 6 new EVPs
  • Team is dramatically different

Simplified the structure

  • Had 92 buying teams to start the year, now 60
  • Have eliminated commissions

Customer:

  • Customers love what they see when they come to the store
  • Customer Survey Improvements:

 JCP: Making the Call on Air - customer survey

  • Changes in brand perception:

 JCP: Making the Call on Air - brand perception

  • Love the everyday price (67% product bought at highest point price)
  • Best price purchases representing 15% of sales

 

 JCP: Making the Call on Air - pricing breakdown

  • Have established a Predictable sales pattern
  • Doing this with pricing strategy as the customer shops on their terms
  • Only had 1 week with sales more than 10% outside of the range

 JCP: Making the Call on Air - predictable sales pattern

 

Fashion Apparel Performing:

  • Problems selling basics
  • Home/basics men women kids remain weak
  • On fashion, customers want better merchandise- Best performing retailers have fashion with credibility for great product

New Store design ahead of schedule:

  • Have a 60,000 square foot warehouse, working on new store design which will be discussed in August

Shop strategy:

  • March 15th, posted application for shops, got 110 shop applications excluding those already in discussion
  • Now in a position for more choices in content than space

Product Update:

  • Beginning in august, will have transformed 47% of content through new brand launches and improving current brands

New Brands launching the Fall

  • JCP brand rolled out in August to both men's and women's
  • Dream Pop for ages 7-14
  • Betsyville by Betsy Johnson- handbags and accessories in 4Q
  • LULU Guinness
  • Vivienne Tam debuting in the Fall
  • Royal Velvet- heritage brand for bed and bath, expanding exclusive license into furniture window and tabletop
  • DC will be a foundational element of young mens
  • Monet- categories like handbags and footwear

Powering up existing brands:

  • Liz Claiborne, goal is to return LIZ to its heritage of well designed collection for working women
  • Puma- athletic footwear and active wear, growing assortment dramatically in the back half of the year
  • Xersion- Americas favorite active wear brand for the family
  • Nike- have had partnership in footwear- introducing broader assortment of men's and women's
  • St John's Bay- restoring the brand to it's roots, outdoor brand
  • Worthington- one of the top 10 women's brands in America focusing on the modern career women
  • Stafford- improving design, styling and fabrication

10 new shops announced in January

  • Arizona Jeans- creating assortment of fashion denim for men's and women's in all new shop
  • IZOD
  • Liz Claiborne- honoring the customers ability to pull together a look with ease
  • JCP brand- in addition to having fashion basics, will have a men's/women's shop rolling out in September of this year in all stores
  • Levis- opening shops for both men and women for BTS season but will represent the most innovative  Levi experience in the US

Spring Update:

  • Corner stone of home will be Martha Stewart by March 1st, 2013

 JCP: Making the Call on Air - home shop

  • Partnerhsip with Jonathan Adler called "Happy Chic"
  • Michal Graves Design
  • Bodum
  • Design by Conran
  • Lamour by nanette lepore (13-19 year old crowd)
  • Georgina Chapmen expected to be in stores by Feb 2013
  • Licensing agreement with William Rast- premium denim and sportswear apparel beginning in the Spring
  • Nike- Building out men's/women's Nike Shops, most inspiring collection outside of Nike Freestanding stores
  • Watchgear by Torneau for JC Penney

 JCP: Making the Call on Air - watch shop

 

Guidance:

  • Adjusted EPS of $2.16
  • Taking off $1.59 GAAP guidance due to additional restructuring expenses
  • Increased Marketing and 47% change in merchandise expected to drive traffic
  • Shops will have a big impact on the business going forward
  • Discontinuing dividend
  • Will generate over a $1bn in cash before capex- plan to invest cash in the business which will be a better return than a dividend

 

August Meeting Agenda:

2Q results

Merchandise strategy

New technology platform

New store design

 

 

Q&A:

 

Inventory:

  • Have done best valuation on aged inventory
  • Have removed aged inventory
  • Goal is to get inventory turning faster which will generate a profound amount of cash
  • Reduced inventories will help push margins over 40%

Cost Savings

  • $900m net run rate by year end
  • Do anticipate increased investing

Merchandise priorities

  • Those introductions shared today reflect gaps that JCP has had in the past
  • Expect to see a thoughtful review of legacy and heritage brands that will be restored in shop environment as well as newness in all categories within the store
  • Have had the goal to reach younger customers without sacrificing heritage customers

Shops in Stores

  • Goal is to get shops in as many stores
  • At launch, shops will go into A, B, C stores (about 700) with sizing varying
  • Largest stores are called stores (2000 square feet) done selectively
  • Shops minimum 500 square feet
  • 3rd is boutique, 300 square feet which may not have all the walls

Store performance:

  • Best performance was in the smallest small town stores
  • Took the time to really understand the pricing strategy
  • Performance across all other markets was virtually identical within 1%
  • Continue to expect to operate all stores vs. any closures
  • A new priority is to work and reevaluate the store portfolio but this hasn’t been focused on early on

Customer Demographic

  • Are seeing that JCP has been engaging a younger customer
  • Hard to say with precision how the mix is changing this early
  • Will provide greater detail in August through enhance analytics

Merchandise Selection

  • With all of the shops, engineering all of the shops to be in line with expectations of the consumer
  • Torneau will help open the doors to all of the brands like Sephora did for makeup
  • Can do large brands like Nike, Levis, etc.
  • Have yet to enter certain categories, food, beverage, hardlines, etc.

$1bn in cash flow

  • This is before capex
  • During the transformation will still generate cash

Guidance

  • No Comp guidance
  • Expect sales to improve throughout the year
  • Half of the assortment will be new
  • Changes in content will update the fashion with fewer key items
  • Inserting freestanding shops will help drive volume

Employee Morale

  • Difficult to know customer morale from the top
  • Store employees have embraced the change, easier to take care of customers, stores are cleaner, less recovery
  • Most employees were thrilled with commission changes
  • Non commission force will create a better customer service experience overall

Market Share

  • Keeping the customer is job number 1
  • Currently losing customers
  • Customer has not gone to primary long term competitors, i.e KSS comping essentially flat
  • M said in some markets against JCP have gained share but comps have slowed
  • Believe a great deal of the slowdown is lack of refilling basics
  • Customer is clearly buying less- want to earn him/her back

Basics

  • Plan on winning in basics
  • Configured basics for a promotion strategy (bulk)
  • Dinnerwear- JCP selling 72 piece innerwear sets- need to reconfigure the basics
  • Working to get merchandise aligned with new strategy
  • Gold Toe wanted to put in a Gold Toe shop

Competition:

  • No major competitive response to changes at JCP
  • TGT had better performing spring apparel
  • TJX had strong results
  • Old Navy improving
  • Those succeeding are using an EDLP strategy vs. the promotional strategy

Category issues

  • Overall, opportunity to better communicate value proposition
  • 3 categories: fine jewelry, home, basics (towels, underwear, socks)
  • Fine jewelry: lowered in March all of fine jewelry prices
  • In April, made jewelry pricing better everyday

Traffic

  • Will learn more in August about new store design that is about creating traffic outside of the product
  • The old way of driving traffic was a coupon or a sale

Impact of SG&A savings on sales

  • Have to take a look at the base
  • Historically over the past 5 years of sales decline JCP has not been reducing labor force in stores
  • Have had an over managed over processed labor force in stores- working to simplify that base
  • Want to develop a high service model
  • Conversion was hardly effected thus far

 


FL: A Much Needed Beat

 

Conclusion: We expect a solid beat driven by strong domestic sales through Q1, which should offset continued weakness in Europe. Near-term the stock is at a precarious level as it is just below a convergence in both its TRADE and TREND lines. The percent move down on a penny miss will likely exceed stock upside on a penny beat. If we’re wrong on the quarter, Friday won’t be fun. But we have enough confidence in the FL story to use that as an opportunity to get in to a name that ran-up 35% leading up to its analyst day back in March.

 

FL Risk Management Levels

 

FL: A Much Needed Beat - FL TTT
 

TRADE (3-Weeks or Less):

We’re at $0.81 for FL headed into Friday’s print before the open ahead of Street estimates at $0.74E.

  • April sales in the Athletic Specialty channel came in better than we expected up +8%. This implies the Feb-Apr quarter was up a robust +12.5%. Based on the Hedgeye FL Comp index below, which has proven to be a strong indicator, we expect comps up +9% vs. +6.7%E to drive sales up +11% vs. +6.7%E.
  • Offsetting strong domestic sales will be European weakness, which started off the quarter down HSD. Our sense is that trends out of Europe likely deteriorated further during the quarter and will come in down low double-digit resulting in a 3-4pt drag on aggregate comp. This offset is the reason why we expect FL to underperform our comp index for the first time in the last seven quarters and is the greatest variable regarding Q1 comps. If Europe came in down HSD in the quarter, we could see FL post a double-digit comp and upside to numbers.
  • Assuming robust top-line sales, we are modeling +100bps of gross margin improvement driven primarily by occupancy leverage up +90bps and a +10bps contribution from merchandise margin. We are also modeling SG&A up +7.5% considerably higher than consensus (+2.5%E) reflecting 9% growth in core SG&A including $8mm in incremental marketing spend offset by a $3-$4mm reduction in Fx.

TREND (3-Months or More):
The company is focused on driving both growth and operational improvements over the intermediate-term in the form of store presentations and net growth (primarily in Europe) for the first time in five years. We think the biggest opportunity is in the women’s and apparel businesses. We like to see FL driving store growth in Europe when it should be able to strike favorable lease terms; however, near-term it will likely moderate new store productivity. In addition, with tough comps again next quarter, we think upside earnings surprises will be limited for another quarter before easing in 2H. The risk would be if higher pricing out of Nike sticks with FL, but not the consumer, or that the pressure we expect to see in the mid-tier softlines space bleeds into the athletic specialty channel. But we don’t think either of those is likely. 


TAIL (3-Years or Less):

After delivering on his 5-year plan 3-years ahead of schedule, Hicks recently outlined his latest 5-year plan in March. The focus will remain on the next leg of improving apparel assortment and mix, growing the international store footprint (more productive than domestic base), and expanding its digital platform. Some of these efforts (i.e. women’s, apparel, and kids) are likely to gain traction sooner than others, but the bottom-line is that we like the earnings visibility here over the next 12-24 months. We’re shaking out at $2.40 for the year above the Street at $2.28E and $2.75 for 2013 vs. $2.50E. 

 

The biggest risk here is definitely the Euro, not from a translation standpoint as much as what would fundamentally change in the business if a draconian break-up of the Eurozone comes to fruition. Remember that FL is a pan-European retailer, with a common banner in each country. That’s a double edge sword. On one hand, it makes it easier to assort, operate and serve stores in each country. One currency certainly has made that easy.  We’re not going to make a call on FL via ‘Euro Break Up Risk’. But from a risk management perspective, just keep in mind that it is a quarter of profits that could be under fire from multiple Macro angles that management has never had to consider.


Casey Flavin

Director

 

FL: A Much Needed Beat - FL Comp

 

FL: A Much Needed Beat - Monthly FW 1 yr growth

 

FL: A Much Needed Beat - Monthly FW category sales T3W 1yr chg

 

Below is our key takeaways following FL’s investor day on March 6th regarding our intermediate-to-longer term view:


We attended FL’s headquarters analyst meeting to review Ken Hicks’ report card on the 2010-2014 Plan and to walk through his goals for the next 5-years. We came away with essentially the same view that we walked in with. The stock has a favorable risk/reward profile and trades at a reasonable multiple if not at a discount, but faces increasingly tougher comps in the 1H at the same time growth out of Europe is slowing limiting upside surprises to earnings over the intermediate-term. As a result, we think there will be a more attractive opportunity to get involved in the stock at lower
prices.


Not surprisingly, many of the key initiatives of Hicks’ new 2012-2016 Plan were layovers from two years ago given the opportunity for further progress. The two new initiatives include an increased focus on both the customer as well as high-growth businesses (i.e. Women’s, Apparel, Kids, & Team). The bigger callout on the day was the introduction of Hick’s
long-term targets (see below), which were higher than we expected suggesting $3.50 in earnings power at a 14% CAGR over the next five years.


Naturally, we take a critical look at targets like this and ask if we think they’re achievable. However, given Hick’s track
record at JCP and now FL, where he hasn’t missed a number, perhaps the better question is WHEN, not IF these goals will be met. Here’s a look at the latest key objectives compared to the 2010 plan as well as the key takeaways from the
meeting:


FL: A Much Needed Beat - FL 5YrPlan

 


Key Takeaways:

  • There are multiple operational systems that the company currently has in various stages of testing and implementation that are at the core of the first initiative in Hicks’ new plan. These include systems for planning product allocations, labor management, measuring shelf productivity, as well as heat mapping technology for use in tracking traffic flow. We think each will play a role in not only improving the customer experience, but also driving incremental sales productivity and margins (objective #5). The potential timing of these systems are less certain, but the labor management piece will be rolled out this Spring and is expected to start yielding results as early as this fall.
  • Customizing locally relevant assortments is another key element to better address customer needs from urban to suburban locations down to specific differences in cross town purchasing preferences. While there are systems currently in place that enable management to tailor assortments, improved data mining from additional tools will increase the impact of these efforts and productivity particularly as it relates to apparel product assortments (think colorways, team preferences, etc.).
  • We think the high-growth opportunities with the greatest upside are women’s and apparel. Management sized each as an incremental $100mm opportunity along with kid’s and Team. It’s important to note that these aren’t mutually exclusive efforts. In fact, Hicks suggested that women’s stores will start to look more like an apparel store than its traditional footwear format. This could translate into a mix of 75/25 apparel to footwear shown in store resulting in sales of roughly 50/50. Whatever the mix shakes out, Hicks stated emphatically that FL will significantly step up its commitment in apparel. In addition to working with a new design firm to test formats, Lady Foot Locker will be undergoing transformational change in 2012/2013. 
  • Besides ramping net store growth for the first time since 2006, FL is also testing new store formats at Champs, Lady Foot Locker and Kid’s Foot Locker. New store formats at Champs include a change in presentation with apparel on the walls and footwear on floor on bleacher-like shelving. Make no mistake, it’s not a coincidence that FL is taking a page right out of Nike’s retail efforts. One of the pleasant surprises in terms of unexpected detail on the day was slide #32 showing apparel/accessories penetration as a percent of sales at 24% today compared to 31% back in 2003. While the firm’s selling strategy was decidedly different then and referred to as ‘when they sold cotton by the pound,’ if management can get apparel share up 3pts it would equate to nearly $200mm in incremental revenues.
  • The growth opportunity in Europe remains a key element of management’s brand expansion strategy. This includes both stores in new underpenetrated markets in Eastern Europe as well as a new banner concept altogether. The company is currently testing a new banner called the Locker Room in the UK that features performance product (e.g. cleats, sticks, uniforms, shoes, etc.) in a larger 4,000 sq. ft. footprint compared to the average 2,900 sq. ft. European store with two more slated to be open in time for the 2012 London Olympics in July and August. The majority of FL’s new store growth (60-70 net openings annually) will continue to be European based.
  • Within stores, House of Hoops remains an important brand expanding initiative. There are now 50 House of Hoops shops up from just 10 at the start of 2010 and management sees an opportunity for over 100+ in total globally with the potential to add an incremental $50mm. Assuming a similar rate of growth, House of Hoops rollouts could add 40-50bps to top-line growth in each of the next two years.
  • With a strong balance sheet including $850mm in cash at year end, it is clear that management is committed to investing in growth, but at a measured pace. While the company could accelerate store openings, it plans to thoroughly test new formats before committing the capital to support it. Importantly, the company just raised the dividend by 9% and announced a new $400mm SRA where it can put excess FCF to work.

 

All in, there were few surprises. There is clearly a substantial opportunity for further development of initiatives that
are already in progress, which should ultimately help to drive earnings towards $3.50 overtime.


In the meantime as we look out over the next twelve months, year-end results came in right in-line with our expectations.
The two biggest deltas were a stronger than expected start to Feb up mid-teen on a tough comp and incremental weakness in Europe (down -9% in Q4). Net net, we are shaking out at $2.25 in EPS for this year. We like the name over the long-term TAIL duration (3-Years or Less), but think that the later could limit upside surprises to earnings over the intermediate-term and present a more attractive opportunity to get long FL stock.

 

 FL: A Much Needed Beat - FL LTTgts


 

 


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Worse Than Bad Champagne . . . The Coming Debt Hangover

Conclusion: The long term impact of debt-to-GDP over 90% is protracted periods of below average economic growth with a meaningfully negative impact on cumulative GDP.


We often write about the impact of debt-to-GDP north of 90% and its detrimental impact on growth.  This ratio and level was popularized by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff in their seminal work, “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.”  In their research, Reinhart and Rogoff analyze over 200 years of data from a group of more than 60 advanced economies.  The results are summarized in the table below, but the key takeaway is that at or north 90% debt-to-GDP, of which there are 352 observations, economic growth slows to 1.7% on average versus 3.4% growth on average at lower debt levels.

 

Worse Than Bad Champagne . . . The Coming Debt Hangover - chart1

 

In a subsequent paper published last month, Reinhart and Rogoff consider the impact of longer term periods in which debt-to-GDP remains above 90%.  They define these as “debt overhangs as economic episodes where the gross public debt / GDP exceed 90% for five years or more.”  In their research, Reinhart and Rogoff identify 26 debt overhang periods in 22 countries going back to the early 1800s.  This data currently excludes the unfolding cases of Belgium, Iceland, Ireland, Portugal, and the United States.

 

Not surprisingly based on Reinhart and Rogoff’s prior work, periods of debt overhang lead to below trend line economic growth for extended periods.  In fact, of the 26 observations of debt overhang periods, only three observations resulted in above average growth (Belgium from 1920 – 1926, Netherlands from 1932 to 1954, and the U.K. from 1830 to 1868).  Collectively, the average growth for debt overhang periods is 2.3% per annum versus 3.5% per annum for period in which debt-to-GDP is below 90%. 

 

Clearly, then, economies with more debt grow at a slower pace, but the more concerning issue is the cumulative impact.  The average duration of a debt overhang period is twenty-three years.  If we extrapolate the impact of 1.2% growth per annum over twenty-three years, the cumulative impact is substantial.  In this paper, Reinhart and Rogoff use a baseline analysis and show that at the end of the average debt hangover, real GDP is 24% lower than in periods where debt-to-GDP is below 90%.

 

Worse Than Bad Champagne . . . The Coming Debt Hangover - chart2

 

Interestingly, as the chart below highlights, the current period may shortly become the most indebted period of the last century.  The chart shows gross public debt-as-a-percentage-of-GDP for 70 advanced and emerging countries.  The 22 nations considered advanced economies are, in fact, at their most indebted ever and exceed the indebtedness of the emerging markets by a ratio of greater than 2:1. Logically, then, we may be entering the most meaningful and lengthy debt hangover in modern economic history.

 

Worse Than Bad Champagne . . . The Coming Debt Hangover - chart3

 

The common refrain from many who support more aggressive government spending and higher government debt levels is that interest rates continue to allow funding.  In effect, if markets are not concerned about solvency risks, why should policy makers care?  Firstly, they should care because of the impact to long-term growth.  Secondly, in 11 of the 26 examples of debt overhang, real interest rates were lower, and therefore did not prove an adequate predictor of future economic performance, or risk.

 

In a typical hangover scenario, we’d recommend comfort food, vitamins and a lot of water.  The more realistic scenario for nations experiencing a debt hangover is to endure the short term economic pain of reducing government debt.  As we are seeing in Europe though, in a highly politicized world that is often easier said than done.

 

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 


TJX: 1Q13 Report Card

We continue to be extremely concerned about the inventory/margin setup for retail in 2H – which plays right into the countercyclical nature of TJX. No surprise that its 1Q metrics look so good. With inventories rising at SKS, JWN and M, earnings are likely to improve from here. TJX will look expensive, and it should.

 

Conclusion:

Inventory growth continues to be a key concern/theme out of 1Q12 results, which is good for off-price retailers like TJX. As we indicated in our earlier note "Retail: Complacency Today, Hope Tomorrow", while we’ve been seeing inventory growth outpacing sales in the mid-tier (KSS and Macy’s mid-tier business), we’re now seeing sharp negative sales/inventory moves out of the upper tier department store players as well; both JWN & SKS sales/inventory spreads deteriorated sequentially in Q1. TJX and ROST have been on a tear, but the reality is that as long as there are signs of inventory building out there, it will be a bullish set-up for them over the next 12 months.  In fact, TJX is at a point in its cycle where it is clearing at high margin (revs +11.3% vs inventory -3%), and we think will revert soon enough to buying higher-priced, higher quality goods that need to find a home (ie Polo and Armani in TJ Maxx). While TJX’s revised guidance remains $0.03 below consensus at the high-end, comp expectations of 2-3% appear conservative. This will likely continue to be like Chinese water torture for the bears, as both earnings, and the stock should grind higher.

 

What Drove the Beat?

After having originally guided 1Q13 comps to +2-4%, TJX over delivered +8% (which came out on Sales day). This additional $200m+ in sales disproportionately flowed through to gross margin with little incremental SG&A resulting in 90bps expense leverage. 1Q top line resulted from significant improvements in traffic with a slight benefit from an increase in average ticket. FX contributed a favorable 40 bps to the 220bps operating margin expansion. The remaining 180bp was driven by improved merchandise margins, and the remainder was buying and occupancy leverage off an 8% comp.  TJX ended the quarter with inventories (-3%) overall and (-7%) on a per store basis resulting in a meaningful 11 point sequential improvement in the sales/inventory spread (now +15%).

 

TJX: 1Q13 Report Card - TJX SIGMA

 

Deltas in Forward Looking Commentary?

 

In order to properly measure performance relative to original expectations, we look at management’s first quarter results relative to management guidance as well as any updates to previously provided full year 2013 outlook:

 

TJX: 1Q13 Report Card - TJX delta

 

Highlights from the Call:

 

Comps: +8% driven by significant increases in traffic with average ticket up slightly

  • Above plan sales and record flow through resulted in record profitability
  • Saw significant increases in traffic across every division
  • Warm weather boosted demand though sales remained strong in regions driven less by weather
  • International momentum remains strong

Divisional performance

US Marmaxx comp +8%

US Home goods +9%

 

TJX Europe: highest first quarter segment profit in history

  • Broad based strength in Europe from UK and Ireland, Germany and Poland
  • See lots of room for further improvement
  • Remain the only major off price retailer in Europe

TJX Canada: comps +6%

  • Segment profit improved significantly
  • Opened another 6 Marshalls stores in the quarter

 

SG&A 90bps leverage

  • Driven by expense management on above plan comp
  • Added very little incremental SG&A to 200mm+ revenue outperformance

EBIT Margin: +220bps

  • Strong flow through of above plan sales
  • 40 bps due to positive FX impact
  • 8% comps would typically drive 120 bps improvement, drove 180 bps increase ex FX
  • Merchandise margins drove 90 bps of the 180bps improvement ex FX
  • Some buying and occupancy leverage

Inventories: down 7% per store vs. 12% increase last year

 

Operations:

  • Customer transactions have increased mid teens over the past 3 years
  • Research shows TJX attracting younger customers
  • Market penetration still well below most US department stores
  • E-Commerce remains an opportunity to draw customers in the future (E-commerce will not be top line accretive in 2012)
  • Plan to grow square footage by 4-5% annually over the next 2 years
  • More than 100 markets where there is a TJX or Marmaxx and no Homegoods creating opportunity
  • Maintaining 10-13% annual EPS growth guidance

Guidance:

  • May is off to a strong start

2012

EPS: $2.27-$2.37; 14% to 19% increase over $1.99 last year (Increase do primarily to 1Q outperformance)

Comps +2-3% vs. original guidance of 1-2%

Pre tax margins 11.1%-11.5% 20-30 bps above original guidance

Share Repurchase: $1.2-$1.3bn in FY13 including $250mm in Q1

 

2Q guidance

EPS: $0.47-$0.50 cents ($0.01 benefit from FX)

Top line: $5.7-$5.8bn range based on comps +2-4%

May: comps planned to increase 5%,  June: flat to up 1%, July: +1-3 %

Gross Margins: 27.2%-27.4%; down 10bps to +10bps YoY, merchandise margins expected to be up, -10bps impact from FX

SG&A: 16.8%-17% range, down 10bps to +10bps YoY (reflects 30 bps of incremental growth investments)

EBIT Margin: 10%-10.4%, down 20bps to +20bps (includes 10bps negative FX impact)

Tax Rate: 38.5% (higher than last year)

Net interest 8m-9m range

Share count of 752 mm shares

 

Q&A

 

Marketing and Advertising Spending in 2012:

  • Pretty flat though impressions are up leveraging corporate marketing initiatives
  • Will be more prominent in 2H
  • Have kicked it up for gift giving in Q4

Investment Spending

  • Slight increase in 2Q but investments are on plan for the full year
  • Corporate expense +$13mm in 1Q, planned to be up 20mm in 2Q with majority in investment spending
  • 1H increases in 30-33mm but back half in +10mm range
  • Able to leverage SG&A slight in 2H on flat to +1% comp to due timing of investment spending

Debt

  • Long term debt ($775mm) with nothing due near term
  • No plans at this point in time to increase leverage but remain open

Traffic Increases

  • Are seeing new customers in that average age is decreasing a bit
  • Large percent of new customers are younger (18-35 range)
  • Maintaining the older customer as well

Marmaxx segment margins:

  • Improvements coming across the board with new stores and old stores
  • Across the country in all demographics

Sourcing:

  • High percent of sourcing done in Europe- very specific by country
  • Have learned what the mix needs to be by country
  • Adding countries to improve assortments- currently 700 people in merchandising department
  • 6 or 7 main sourcing offices around the world with additional satellite offices
  • Will be growing sourcing team through new hubs and additional buying persons in main offices
  • Sourcing team is constantly traveling

Europe:

  • Only off-price vehicle in Europe
  • Europe has a long runway of opportunity
  • Merchants overall in Europe are more seasoned than a year ago which has benefitted
  • High increases in traffic patterns in Europe
  • More and more opportunity to increase store count- taking advantage of current real estate opportunity
  • Now guiding Europe to a 5.2-5.8% segment margin on a 53 week basis, 280-300 bps improvement over last year on a 4-5 comp
  • Pleased with current momentum in Europe
  • Learning from Europe E-commerce in terms of working online in the off priced sector- learning about average order, basket, communication, etc.
  • E-commerce business getting stronger and stronger
  • TJX does not perform better in a weaker macro setting

Segment margins hitting record highs

  • Planning comp conservatively, every comp is about $0.05
  • Strive to beat plan

Category Drivers

  • Apparel and Home have been terrific
  • Tremendous color changes in fashion this year
  • Mens/kids strong against the board
  • Buying structure allows team to take advantage of changes in fashion, weather, etc.

Comp Drivers

  • Planning for average ticket to be up slightly with most of comps driven by traffic 

Rural & Urban type stores

  • See more and more possibility for additional stores in rural and urban markets
  • Continue to learn and can improve on real estate targeting
  • Opportunity for home goods to have urban and rural stores as well- volume of stores is less than chain avg but margin is in line

Homegoods

  • Results from buying team executing on the merchandising side
  • Starting to see a younger customer with the store being a great vehicle for younger customers getting their first apartment

 


APRIL CPI DATA SHOWS CONTINUED NARROWING OF FOOD VALUE SPREAD

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released CPI data for the month of April this morning.  The spread between CPI for Food at Home and Food Away from Home continues to narrow.

 

We have long been calling out this trend; the advantage that restaurants enjoyed over grocers in 2011, in terms of lower price increases year-over-year, continues to fade.  Grocers were forced to raise prices in line with inflation to protect margins during 2011; we believe that restaurants benefitted from that.  Last year, restaurants’ strong top-line trends helped the industry mitigate the impact of inflation on margins.

 

Ahead of the next CPI report, we will be publishing some work specific to several companies in the restaurant and food retail spaces and their comparable sales growth through inflationary and deflationary cycles. 

 

Looking ahead, we believe that the restaurant industry’s ability to lap difficult comps during the summer months may be negatively impacted if the “food value spread” turns negative.  Management teams at McDonald’s and Jack in the Box, among others, have highlighted this metric as being instrumental in their thinking about pricing. 

 

APRIL CPI DATA SHOWS CONTINUED NARROWING OF FOOD VALUE SPREAD - cpi home away from home

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst


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