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April gross gaming revenues (GGR) were flat MoM and increased 22% YoY to $3.13BN

April gross gaming revenues (GGR) were flat MoM and increased 22% YoY to $3.13BN.  The early start of Golden Week likely helped boost the numbers in the tail end of the month and slightly better YoY hold also contributed to the strong results this month.  We estimate that total direct play this month accounted for 6.4% of the market, same as in April 2011.  The total VIP market held at 3.01% vs. 2.94% in April 2011.  Accounting for direct play and theoretical hold of 2.85% in both months, April revenues would have increased 20% YoY.  

Encouragingly, Mass drove most of the growth as this higher margin segment increased over 41%.  VIP Rolling Chip only increased 13.5% YoY.  The last 3 months have been the slowest growing RC months since mid-2009.

The details are written in the section below but here are some company market share highlights:

Wynn Macau

  • Wynn slot share is getting hammered:  roughly 15.5% the last two months versus 19.4% for all of 2011
  • Wynn Mass share lowest since Feb 2010
  • Wynn Mass share 2012 ytd is 10.7%, down 140bps from 2011
  • Wynn VIP Rolling Chip share holding its own

MPEL

  • MPEL hits all-time high in Mass share – consistent up trend all year
  • MPEL Rolling Chip share stabilizing following Sands China’s junket push that began in Q4

MGM Macau

  • MGM getting beat up on Mass and Rolling Chip but slots have been surging

Galaxy

  • Galaxy held its own despite the opening of Sands Cotai Central

Sands China (LVS)

  • LVS share was disappointing: only 60bps above the average for the 5 months since they began the junket push
  • LVS Mass share up 190bps over TTM – should’ve been better since SCC added 4% to Mass table supply in Macau and was open for 2/3 of the month
  • Rolling Chip share was only up 40bps from the average since the junket push was instituted in November

THE DETAIL

 

Y-o-Y Table Revenue Observations

Total table revenue grew 22% YoY this month.  The slightly higher YoY hold helped contribute 2% of the growth in the month.  We also suspect that the earlier start to Golden Week this year helped the tail end of the month, but that’s harder to quantify.  Mass revenue growth of 41% was in-line with the 40+% growth rate we’ve seen in the market over the last 6 months.  VIP revenues grew 16%, while Junket RC increased 13%, both continuing the ‘slowing trend’ that we began to see in October.

LVS 

Table revenues grew 29% YoY, outpacing the market due to the opening of SCC and high hold at Four Seasons. We estimate that LVS’s properties held at 2.9% in April.  At 21%, LVS had the best VIP growth after Galaxy and ranked #3 behind Galaxy and MPEL for Mass table growth at 46%.

  • Sands generated a 32% YoY decline mostly due to low hold and a difficult hold comparison coupled with VIP volume declines.  This should be no surprise given the ‘cannibalization’/reallocation of tables to SCC.  The good news is that the entire YoY decline came out of the lower yielding VIP segment.
    • Mass was up 2%
    • VIP saw a huge 48% YoY decline.  We estimate that Sands held at 2.2% in April compared to 3.3% in the same period last year.  We assume $230MM/month of direct play or 11% (in-line with what we saw in 1Q12)
    • Junket RC was down 17%.  This was the 5th consecutive month of YoY declines in VIP RC at the property
  • Venetian table revenues decreased 2% YoY, driven by a big drop in VIP revenue which was offset by stellar growth on the Mass side
    • Mass had a great month, increasing 55%
    • VIP decreased 32% and junket VIP RC decreased 34%
    • Again the declines on the VIP side should be no surprise given the reallocation of tables to SCC / cannibalization.  Luckily Mass is doing great which will boost margins due to mix shift and soften the blow from losses on the VIP side.  That said, we may see a greater impact once the second Mass casino opens in 3Q this year.
    • Assuming 27% direct play in the quarter (in-line with 1Q12), hold was 2.73% compared to 2.76% in April 2011, assuming 22% direct play (in-line with 2Q11)
  • Four Seasons grew 347% YoY, driven by a huge Junket RC growth, high hold and an easy hold comparison
    • After 9 consecutive months of double digit growth, mass revenues decreased 11%
    • Junket VIP RC increased 4.24x YoY and VIP revenues soared 590%
    • Four Seasons is clearly seeing a benefit from LVS’s recent initiatives.  If we assume that monthly direct play volume of ~$660MM is in-line with 1Q12 absolute levels, that implies a direct play percentage of 23% and a hold rate of 3.62%.  In comparison, if April 2011 direct play was around 41% then hold is approximately 2.2%.
  • Sands Cotai Central opened on April 12th and during the first 18 days of operation, produced table revenue of $48MM. Given the partial opening of the property and poor luck in the few weeks of operating, it’s too early to draw many conclusions on the property’s performance.
    • Mass revenue of $19MM
    • VIP revenue of $29MM
    • Junket RC volume of $1,064MM
    • If we assume that direct play was 15%, hold would have been just 2.3%

WYNN

Wynn table revenues fell 7% in April, exhibiting the worst table decline of all 6 concessionaires. Wynn’s hold was normal but last year’s comparison was difficult so that didn’t help.  Wynn’s average growth table growth over the last 6 months has slowed to an average of 5%.

  • Mass was up 15% offset by an 11% drop in VIP
  • Junket RC increased 3%
  • Assuming 10% of total VIP play was direct (in-line with 1Q12), we estimate that hold was 2.95% compared to 3.43% last year (assuming 8% direct play – in-line with 2Q11)

MPEL

MPEL table revenue fell 4%, driven by a drop off in Altira revenues driven by a drop in junket volume, low hold and a difficult hold comparison.  On MPEL’s earnings call earlier today, the company did point out that they had moved some tables out of Altira and into CoD’s new junket rooms. On the bright side, Mass continued to be very strong, growing 65% YoY and exhibiting growth second to only Galaxy in this segment.

  • Altira revenues fell 29%, due to a 35% decrease in VIP that was slightly offset by strong Mass growth.  Altira revenues have declined 4 of the last 6 months, averaging a YoY decline of 7%.
    • Mass revenues increased 56%
    • VIP RC decreased 35%; over the last 6 months, VIP revenues have averaged a 10% YoY decrease
    • We estimate that hold was 2.8%, compared to 3.3% in the prior year
  • CoD table revenue was up 10%, driven by 67% growth in Mass, offset by a 5% decline in VIP
    • Junket VIP RC fell 11% despite the addition of 3 junkets and 23 new tables in the month of April
    • Assuming a 16% direct play level, hold was 3.2% in April compared to 3.1% last year (assuming 13% direct play levels in-line with 2Q11)

SJM

Table revenue grew 5%

  • Mass was up 12% and VIP eked out an 1% of growth
  • Junket RC was down 1.9%, implying 2.72% hold across the company’s properties.  Last April’s hold rate was also low at just 2.63%.  May has a much tougher comp to 3.2% last year.

GALAXY

For the 11th month in a row, Galaxy posted table revenues growth north of 100% - at 175%. Mass soared 333%, while VIP grew 155%.

  • StarWorld table revenues grew 27%
    • Mass grew 37% and VIP revenue grew 26%
    • Junket RC grew 7%
    • Hold was high at 3.1% and had an easy comp of just 2.6% last April
  • Galaxy Macau's total table revenues were $329MM – coming close to the property’s high set during October 2011’s Golden week of $339MM.  Revenues were up 5% sequentially.
    • Mass table declined 8% MoM to $71MM, which was still the property’s second best month
    • VIP table revenue grew 9% MoM to $258MM, the second best month since October 2011
    • Hold was 3.44% - the property’s 3rd highest since opening
    • RC volume of $7.5BN was down 5% MoM and compares to a peak of $8.3BN in October

MGM

Table revenues grew 12%

  • Mass revenue growth was 12%
  • VIP revenue grew 11%
  • Junket RC increased 7%
  • If direct play was in-line with 1Q12 levels of 6%, then hold in April was 3.2% compared to 3.1% in April 2011

Sequential Market Share

LVS

LVS was the largest share gainer in April, closing the month with 17.8% share vs. 16.5% in March.  This compares to a 6 month trailing market share of 17.3% and 2011 average share of 15.7%.

  • Sands' share dropped 120bps to 3.2%, marking an all-time low for the property.  For comparison purposes, April share was below 2011's share of 4.6% and 6M trailing average share of 4.2%.
    • Mass share fell 90 bps to an all-time low of 5.7%
    • VIP rev share decreased 1.4% to an all-time low of just 2.2%
    • RC share decreased 20bps to just 2.8%, above the all-time low of 2.4% set in Feb 2012
  • Venetian’s share dropped 20bps to 7.4% - the lowest market share in 8 months.  2011 share was 8.4% and 6 month trailing share was 8.2%.
    • VIP share decreased 40bps to 4.6% - only 10bps above the all-time low set in August 2011
    • Mass share increased 30bps to 15.2% - the property’s best share in 6 months and nicely above their 6 month average of 14.4%
    • Junket RC fell 20bps to 3.9% setting an all-time property low
  • FS gained 1% share to 5.1%.  This compares to 2011 share of 2.2% and 6M trailing average share of 4.2%.
    • VIP share increased 1.3% to 6.4%.  This marks the 3rd consecutive month where FS VIP revenues exceeded those of Venetian and the 4th month in a row where they exceed Sands’ revenue.
    • Mass share increased 10bps to 1.6%
    • Junket RC improved 10bps to 4.2%.  April marked the 3rd month where RC share at Four Seasons exceeded that of Venetians’ and 5th month where volumes exceeds those of Sands Macau.
  • Sands Cotai Central achieved table market share of 1.6% during their first 18 days of operation
    • Mass share of 2.5%
    • VIP share of 1.3%
    • Junket RC share of 1.6%

WYNN

Wynn was the second largest share gainer in a month that saw relatively little movement.  Wynn’s share increased 60bps to 12.9%, which was in-line with its 6 month trailing average share of 12.9% and well below its 2011 average share of 14.1%.  We expect Wynn’s share to continue to struggle in the face of a ramping Sands Cotai Central.

  • Mass market share fell 20bps to 8.9%; just 10 bps better than the property’s all-time low
  • VIP market share improved 90bps to 14.1%
  • Junket RC share fell to 13.9%, a 1.4% MoM decline

MPEL

MPEL lost 60bps of share in April to 13.7% which was in-line with their 6 month trailing share of 13.7% but below their 2011 share of 14.8%.  Interestingly, this was the 3rd month in a row where MPEL’s Junket RC share exceeded that of Sands.

  • Altira share fell 1.1% to 3.5%, which was below the property’s 2011 share of 5.3% and 6M trailing share of 4.1%
    • Mass share ticked up 10bps to 1.7%
    • VIP declined 1.6% to 4.2%, the properties’ lowest level since July 2007
  • CoD’s share improved 50bps to 9.9%; above its 2011 share of 9.3% and 6M trailing share of 9.4%
    • Mass market share increased 50bps to 11.5% hitting an all-time property high
    • VIP share increased 60bps to 9.4%
    • Junket RC increased 40bps to 7.9%

SJM

SJM was the biggest share loser in April.  SJM’s share fell 1.3% to 25.3%, well below their 6-month trailing average of 26.8% and 2011 average of 29.2%.  SJM is likely to continue to be in a position of a share donor as SCC ramps up.

  • Mass market share fell 50bps to an all-time low of 31.8%
  • VIP share fell 1.3% to 24.0%
  • Junket RC share was flat at 28.4%

GALAXY

Galaxy’s share ticked up 20bps in April to 20.5%, which was above their 6-month trailing average of 19.2%

  • Galaxy Macau share increased 50bps to 11%, above its 6-month trailing average of 10.1%
    • Mass share fell 60bps to 9.0%
    • VIP share increased 90bps to 11.8%, marking an all-time property high
    • RC share increased 20bps to 11.0%, in-line with its all-time high set in October
  • Starworld share fell 40bps to 8.6% but was still above its TTM average share of 8.2%
    • Mass share fell 20bps to 2.7%
    • VIP share fell 50bps to 10.7%
    • RC share was flat at 11.0%

MGM

MGM share ticked down 10bps to 9.9%. April share sits a little below MGM’s 2011 and 6-month trailing average share of 9.9%. We expect that MGM’s share will continue to be under pressure for the balance of the year and the first half of 2012

  • Mass share fell 1% to 7.0%
  • VIP share ticked up 10bps to 10.4%
  • Junket RC ticked down 20bps to 9.4%

Slot Revenue

Slot revenue totaled $142MM in April, with growth accelerating to just 32% YoY.  Two concessionaires hit records this month.

  • As expected, GALAXY slot revenues grew the most with 393% YoY to $14MM
  • MGM slot revenues had the second best growth at 68% YoY to $25MM; a record for the property
  • LVS slot revenues grew 22% YoY to $39MM
  • MPEL slot revenues grew 15% YoY to $27M; a new record for the company
  • WYNN slot revenues grew 9% YoY to $22MM
  • SJM came in last with growth of just 1% to $15MM