• It's Here!

    Etf Pro

    Get the big financial market moves right, bullish or bearish with Hedgeye’s ETF Pro.

  • It's Here

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 9, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -1.08% downside to 1349 and 0.17% upside to 1366. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 5/08 NYSE -613
    • Down from the prior day’s trading of 252
  • VOLUME: on 5/08 NYSE 902.47
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 19.64%
  • VIX:  as of 5/08 was at 19.05
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 0.58%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -18.59%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/08 closed at 2.03
    • Up from the day prior at 1.31 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.82
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.84
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.57
    • Down from prior day’s trading of 1.59 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, week of May 4 (prior 0.1%)
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories, Mar., est. 0.6% (prior 0.9%)
  • 10am: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in Minneapolis
  • 10:30am: DoE inventories
  • 10:45am: Fed’s Pianalto speaks in Lexington, Kentucky
  • 12pm: Fed’s Plosser speaks in Philadelphia
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $24b 10-yr notes 

GOVERNMENT:

  • President Obama meets with NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen to finalize plans for NATO Summit in Chicago, 2:10pm
  • Chamber of Commerce holds quarterly economic briefing, 8:45am
  • Postal Service announces plan for smallest post offices, 10am
  • House lawmakers hold news conference calling for a special prosecutor to investigate the collapse of MF Global, 11am
  • House, Senate in session:
    • House Judiciary holds hearing on FBI oversight, with testimony from Robert Mueller, 10am
    • House Natural Resources hearing on offshore drilling, 10am
    • House Armed Services marks up defense authorization bill, 10am
    • House Financial Svcs subcommittee holds hearing on regulatory compliance costs for small financial institutions, 10am
    • Senate Banking panel holds hearing on need for long-term reauthorization of national flood insurance program, 10am
    • Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker; FDIC member Thomas Hoenig testify before Senate Banking panel on limiting federal support for financial institutions, 2pm
    • World Economic Forum takes place in Ethiopia 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • S&P 500, Dow index futures lower; Dow has dropped the previous five sessions amid concerns of political wrangling in Europe
  • Glaxo to begin hostile offer for Human Genome at $13/shr
  • Toyota forecasts profit will double to highest in five years
  • China passenger-vehicle sales rise 13%, exceeding estimates
  • Confidence among U.S. CEOs in 1Q reaches highest level in 3 yrs
  • Green Mountain Coffee removes chairman after stock sale
  • Verizon Wireless Airwaves purchase said to raise U.S. concerns
  • U.K. retail sales plunge by most in more than a year, BRC says
  • Commerzbank exceeds capital target as profit misses estimates
  • FDA advisory panel meets on PFE’s tofacitinib
  • Disney profit rises 21% on theme parks, says there will be “Avengers” sequel 

EARNINGS:

    • Spectrum Brands Holdings (SPB) 6am, $0.31
    • Quebecor Inc (QBR/B CN) 6am, C$0.68
    • Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group (DTG) 6am, $1.35
    • Agrium (AGU CN) 6:30am, $1.04
    • Enbridge (ENB CN) 7am, C$0.48
    • AOL (AOL) 7am, $0.17
    • Tim Hortons (THI CN) 7:30am, C$0.59
    • Dean Foods (DF) 7:35am, $0.21
    • Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) 7:35am, $(0.25)
    • Macy’s (M) 8am, $0.40; Preview
    • Priceline.com (PCLN) 4pm, $3.95
    • MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) 4:01pm, $(0.26)
    • News Corp (NWSA) 4:03pm, $0.31
    • Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) 4:03pm, $(0.41)
    • Cisco Systems (CSCO) 4:05pm, $0.47
    • Universal Display (PANL) 4:05pm, $0.04
    • Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 4:05pm, $0.04
    • Alterra Capital Holdings (ALTE) 4:05pm, $0.62
    • BMC Software (BMC) 4:05pm, $0.80
    • Tesla Motors (TSLA) 4:10pm, $(0.70)
    • Monster Beverage (MNST) 4:10pm, $0.38
    • CenturyLink (CTL) 4:25pm, $0.58
    • TELUS (T CN) post-mkt, C$1.04    

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

GOLD – no iQe4 upgrade option = down Gold, or at least that’s how Gold acts; its immediate-term TRADE correlation to the USD is also -0.85, so with the USD up for 6 consecutive days, if you didn’t know about the Correlation Risk, now you know. Ron Paul saying abolish Bernanke in DC yesterday and Tea Party win vs Lugar – there’s an American Zeitgeist out there called The People. 

  • Silver Forecasters Bullish as Hedge Funds Retreat: Commodities
  • Oil Falls Sixth Day in Longest Drop Since 2010; SocGen Says Buy
  • India to Rival Vietnam, Dethrone Thailand as Top Rice Seller
  • China Said to Plan Auction of 3 Million Tons of Soybean Reserves
  • Ex-Deutsche Securities Banker Plans Commodities Hedge Fund
  • Copper Declines for a Fifth Day as Euro Debt Crisis May Worsen
  • Gold Drops to Four-Month Low in London on Concern Euro to Weaken
  • Corn Drops as U.S. Planting Gains, Boosting Supply Prospects
  • Palm Oil Declines to Two-Month Low on Greece Political Impasse
  • Sugar Gains on Rising Thai Premiums, Ramadan Demand; Cocoa Falls
  • Gold to Rebound to $1,700 an Ounce This Year: Technical Analysis
  • Sino-Forest Debt Insurance Set to Pay Out 71 Cents per Dollar
  • Thai Rice Output From Main Crop Set to Gain 21% on State Buying
  • Gasoline Seen at Earliest Peak in U.S. Since ‘98: Energy Markets
  • Ex-Deutsche Banker Plans Commodities Fund
  • OPEC Crude Drops Below $110 for First Time Since January
  • Glencore Says Commodity Demand ‘Healthy’ as Production Increases

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


ITALY – we covered our short position in France yesterday; re-shorted Spain (down -2.3% this morning and continues to crash); and stayed short Italian stocks as we think they’ll be back in crash mode in no time (already down -18.9% from the YTD peak in March when most global Equity markets stopped going up, including the Russell2000).

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


 ASIA – you can blame Europe or Canada or whoever, but the fact of the matter is that we live in a globally interconnected economy that doesn’t “de-couple.” India moved to QE yesterday and the market there didn’t care; China finally had a down day of -1.6%; and Japan is getting wrecked, down -1.5% overnight (down 17 of the last 23 days during a 12% draw-down).

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team