President Obama's Reelection Chances Hold Steady at 60.6% -- Hedgeye Election Indicator


If the US Presidential election were held today, President Obama would stand a 60.6% chance of winning reelection, according to the Hedgeye Election Indicator (HEI). That level is unchanged from last week, and marks the seventh time in the past eight weeks that President Obama's reelection chances have stood above 60%, according to the HEI. Two factors that can contribute to a decline in the President's reelection chances, a stronger US dollar and a weaker performance in US stocks, were offset by other factors in the HEI model to keep the likelihood of the President's reelection chances the same as last week. 



President Obama's Reelection Chances Hold Steady at 60.6% -- Hedgeye Election Indicator  - HEI



Hedgeye developed the HEI to understand the relationship between key market and economic data and the US Presidential Election. After rigorous back testing, Hedgeye has determined that there are a short list of real time market-based indicators, that move ahead of President Obama’s position in conventional polls or other measures of sentiment.


Based on our analysis, market prices will adjust in real-time ahead of economic conditions, which will ultimately shape voters’ perception of the Obama Presidency, the Republican candidates and influence the probability of an Obama reelection.  The model assumes that the Presidential election would be held today against any Republican candidate. Our model is indifferent toward who the Republican candidate is as the sentiment for Obama and for any Republican opponent is imputed in the market prices that determine the HEI. The HEI is based on a scale of 0 – 200, with 100 equating to a 50% probability that President Obama would win or lose if the election were held today.



TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 8, 2012

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or -0.41% downside to 1364 and 1.34% upside to 1388. 











    • Up from the prior day’s trading of -1545
  • VOLUME: on 5/07 NYSE 754.30
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -8.60%
  • VIX:  as of 5/07 was at 18.94
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -1.15%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -19.06%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/07 closed at 1.31
    • Down from the day prior at 1.42 


  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.83
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.87
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.58
    • Down from prior day’s trading of 1.62 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:30am: NFIB Small Bus. Optimism, April: est. 92.3, prev. 92.5
  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly sales
  • 8:30am: ECB’s Draghi, Praet speak in Frankfurt
  • 9:45am: Fed’s Lacker meet with students at Greensboro Community College, North Carolina
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, May: est. 48, prev. 49.3
  • 10am: JOLTs Job Openings, March: prev. 3498
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 4-wk bills
  • 12pm: DoE short-term energy outlook
  • 12:45pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks on panel in Dallas
  • 1:00pm: U.S. to sell $32b 3-yr notes
  • 4:30pm: API inventories


    • House Financial Svcs panel, led by Rep. Ron Paul, holds hearing on changing mission, structure of Federal Reserve, 10am
    • House, Senate negotiators meet to discuss $109b highway bill, first multi-year transportation plan since 2005 3pm
    • Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia hold primary elections
    • Voters in Wisconsin pick Democrat to challenge Republican Gov. Scott Walker in June recall vote
    • FEC holds closed meeting on compliance matters, 10am
    • HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano;, GSA Acting Administrator Dan Tangherlini speak at Partnership for Public Service event on shrinking federal budget, 8:30am
    • Senate holds test vote to see whether support exists to debate bill to prevent student-loan interest rates from doubling
    • House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk speak at Council of the Americas conference, 10:30am
    • Senate Armed Services panel holds hearing on Pentagon aviation programs, 3pm
    • NRC advisory committee meets on reactor safeguards, 8:30am
    • FERC meets on environmental impact of facilities by Columbia Gas Transmission LLC in Maryland, 7pm    


  • America Movil offers to buy stake in KPN for $3.4b
  • Ally Finl. gets Treasury Dept. approval for ResCap bankruptcy
  • Yahoo! board members have met to discuss CEO Thompson
  • Morgan Stanley raised estimates for collateral and termination payments to $9.6b
  • FDA to release staff reports for May 10 advisory panels on Arena/Eisai’s weight-loss pill lorcaserin and Gilead’s Truvada to prevent HIV infection
  • Marubeni said close to buying U.S. grain trader Gavilon for $5b
  • SEC planning to hire investigator to review complaints about the agency’s internal watchdog unit
  • AMR’s local TWU leaders encourage workers against final contract offer
  • Movie-chain owner AMC Entertainment said to be in sale talks with Wanda Group, NYT says
  • HSBC Holdings 1Q pretax profit rose 26%, beating est.
  • Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman among speakers at Bloomberg Link “Canada Economic Summit” 


    • Patriot Coal (PCX) 6am, $(0.34)
    • Keyera (KEY CN) 6:19am, C$0.25
    • Starwood Property Trust (STWD) 6:30am, $0.51
    • Quicksilver (KWK) 6:44am, $(0.04)
    • Fossil (FOSL) 7am, $0.92
    • International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) 7am, $1.00
    • Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) 7am, $2.06
    • Discovery Communications (DISCA) 7am, $0.60
    • NV Energy (NVE) 7am, $0.04
    • TransDigm Group (TDG) 7am, $1.45
    • Henry Schein (HSIC) 7am, $0.92
    • Apollo Global Management LLC (APO) 7am, $0.77
    • OfficeMax (OMX) 7am, $0.16
    • DIRECTV (DTV) 7:30am, $1.05
    • Tenet Healthcare (THC) 7:30am, $0.09
    • Health Care REIT (HCN) 7:30am, $0.88
    • Molson Coors Brewing Co (TAP) 7:30am, $0.43
    • Perrigo Co (PRGO) 7:47am, $1.21
    • Hecla Mining Co (HL) 8am, $0.08
    • Charter Communications (CHTR) 8am, $(0.32)
    • Wendy’s Co/The (WEN) 8am, $0.03
    • George Weston Ltd (WN CN) 8am, C$0.80
    • Liberty Interactive (LINTA) 8:30am, $0.16
    • Liberty Media - Liberty Capital (LMCA) 8:30am, $0.70
    • CI Financial (CIX CN) 11:17am, C$0.33
    • Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR) 4pm, $0.65
    • XL Group (XL) 4:01pm, $0.40
    • Solera Holdings (SLH) 4:05pm, $0.68
    • Walt Disney (DIS) 4:15pm, $0.55
    • Kinross Gold (K CN) 4:15pm, $0.21
    • Chesapeake Midstream Partners (CHKM) 4:15pm, $0.36
    • Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) 4:25pm, $0.44
    • Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) 4:27pm, $0.38
    • Franco-Nevada (FNV CN) 5:15pm, $0.32 



OIL – now some good news – Brent Oil has now snapped my long-term TAIL line of $113.87 support and is moving into a Bearish Formation. With the US Dollar up for 5 consecutive days, we’re seeing exactly what we should – Deflating The Inflation (this will be the new perma-bull chant) = good for Consumers, globally, on the margin. 

  • Soybean-Crop Bust Spurs China to Drain U.S. Supply: Commodities
  • Oil Declines for a Fifth Day After Al-Naimi Says Prices Too High
  • LME Says It Received ‘A Number’ of Proposals After Deadline
  • Copper Declines on Concern European Austerity Will Be Derailed
  • Gold Falls a Second Day as Stronger Dollar Cuts Investor Demand
  • Wheat Advances for Second Day as Demand Gains for U.S. Supplies
  • Palm-Oil Companies Boost Refining Capacity in Indonesia on Taxes
  • Marubeni Said to Be Close to Buying U.S. Grain Trader Gavilon
  • El Nino May Develop This Year, Australian Forecaster Says
  • China’s Gold Imports Jump as Country May Become Biggest User
  • Oil Supplies Expand for Seventh Week in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Miners Tap Junk Bonds to Rescue Stranded Projects: Canada Credit
  • Copper May Rise 11% on Fibonacci Retracement: Technical Analysis
  • Cocoa Rises in London After New York Climb; Robusta Coffee Gains
  • Record U.S. Chemical Exports Show Kirby Barges Now Full: Freight 









ITALY – total gong show across European Equities again this morning as hedge funds who covered on the “news” yesterday gave Italian and French stocks a no-volume bounce to lower-highs. We shorted Italy on that yesterday as the MIB remains in a Bearish Formation (see our intraday note), down -18% since March #GrowthSlowing.






INDIA – so they tried the Keynesian thing and now the Rupee is in free-fall; deficit also climbing as they import inflation; India down -0.9% overnight (down -9% from its Feb 2012 top) looks very different than China right now. We like China long (+11.3% YTD) as Deflating The Inflation (Commodities) helps countries with strengthening FX more.










The Hedgeye Macro Team



In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance.



OVERALL:  WORSE - Not only did Wynn miss in Las Vegas and Macau but poor hold played a smaller role than we previously thought, collections were worse, and the LV convention business disappointed.

    • WORSE:  1Q bad debt expense rose $8 million YoY (all in Macau) as a few large accounts went past 150 collection days.  Collections in 2Q are 'very stable and normal.'  Last quarter Wynn said bad debt reserve as a % of receivables would be flat and there was nothing alarming in terms of receivables.
    • WORSE:  WYNN spoke previously that they see 1Q convention channel revenue being flat.  1Q REVPAR actually came in 4% lower YoY as it was hurt by lower occupancy and two fewer conventions.
  • OKADA 
    • SAME:  No new news

real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.


Wynn misses at both properties. Low VIP hold in Macau was known, high Mass hold was not.




  • Business in Macau was fine.  They haven't felt any impact from competition. If they normalized hold they would have had an extra $15-18MM of EBITDA
  • They had a very difficult hold comparison in Vegas 
  • They expect to break ground in Cotai in a few weeks.  He is in final negotiations with contractors
  • No new Okada legal issues



  • Timetable for Cotai: 36-42 months until the opening of Cotai. Spent 28 months designing the property
    • Going down 90+ meters for pilings. It's going to take a few months to pile and lay foundation.  After that things will move quickly
    • There is also a lot going on in China and the Department of Public Works.  So labor is an issue.  However, once the government gives you the land concession they are helpful in getting you off the ground
  • March Junket RC volumes increased over Jan/Feb?
    • Nothing changed. Volumes are simply up YoY and customers may be coming back to "mama" now that they have sampled the competition
  • Special dividends are special. They do have very strong cash flow and a long lead time until construction spend gets expensive
  • Mass revs barely up - they transitioned a lot of their tables from Mass to VIP - they're just yielding their floor.
  • Increase in expenses in Macau: bad debt expense was up $8MM - all due to Macau. Had a few large account that went past 150 days due. They are 55% reserved right now
  • Cost pressures at Wynn Macau? 
    • Gave their employees a cost of living raise
    • Also approaching their 6th year of operations so they are doing some upgrading
  • Occupancy in Vegas is a bit low.  They are trying to hold the line on price/push price. They had non-gaming revenues grow despite have 24,000 less room nights. Had 2 conventions fall out that hurt them
    • Learned to live with a little less occupancy to get their right people their rooms
  • Their competition in Macau has raised the bar. They have taken that into their design of their project in Cotai. Will have pictures on their next call most likely. Prefers not to tip their hand to MGM and SJM but it's likely that they will get a peak at Wynn's design before getting their concessions announced or see what they have in mind
  • Galaxy has already started construction of Ph2. The other guys will do something sooner or later. Doesn't know when they will get their concessions.  It took 7 months from the time that Wynn entered into a contract and paid a deposit to the time they got gazetted. Doesn't mean it will take that long for everyone though. That's just the way it worked for them
  • 25-40% of the project will be equity financed.  They will get the rest of the package in place later this year.
  • Think that their competitor's free bees and giveaways attract more of the lower end of the market that they are interested in. Their Cotai property will have a convention component that is more sizable than what they can currently accommodate. They will also have a lot more rooms
  • Okada: Has no idea about Mr. Okada's desires on process. Mr. Okada's counter-suit is frivolous in his opinion. They have also instituted their own lawsuit based on his behavior while on the Board. They will prosecute their case of breaches in fiduciary duty and conflict of interest until its settled.  Their actions taken were really not optional according to their legal counsel. So they did what they had to do knowing that there would be a counter-suite. 
  • No updates on Japan. Progress on legalization has been stuccado at best
  • They are looking for a maximum price guarantee on the Cotai project
  • Their customers in China are sanguine. They seem to be enjoying their disposable income with the same gusto as before. Did over $1BN of sales in 50k SQFT of retail space and yields. LVMH just doubled their retail space. They did $150MM of sales last year
  • What you are seeing in China is people experiencing wealth for the first generation and they want to enjoy it - see the "good life"
  • They also wouldn't do a project for less than a 20% cash on cash ROI.  They would do 2 projects at once. Back when Singapore was in play he couldn't only had LV and a ton of debt


  • Wynn continues to work on the final Cotai project scope, timeline and budget. The land concession granted on May 2, was for 25 years.
  • Macau VIP win was low at 2.59% but mass held high at 30.3% vs. a normal range of 26-28%
    • Wynn Macau's historical hold rate has been 2.96%, excluding this quarter.  If we use their historical rate then hold impacted net revenue and EBITDA by approx. $87MM and $22MM, respectively
    • Using 27.5% as a normal hold rate for mass, we estimate Wynn Macau's revenue would have been $20MM lower and EBITDA would have been $12MM lower
    • On the net, low hold hurt Wynn Macau by $10MM - by our math
  • Las Vegas table hold was 22.8% (normal) but faced a difficult 30.4% comp in 1Q11
  • $0.50 cash dividend was approved today, payable on June 4th to holders of record on May 21
  • "Wynn Las Vegas, LLC issued $900 million in 5⅜% first mortgage notes due 2022, repaid all amounts outstanding under the term loan facilities totaling $370.9 million, reduced its revolving commitments to $100 million and Wynn Resorts issued a $1.94 billion, 2% promissory note associated with the redemption of the Aruze USA shares."
  • "Total cash balance at March 31, 2012 was $1.9 billion. Total debt outstanding at the end of the quarter was $5.5 billion, including $3.1 billion of Wynn Las Vegas debt, $440 million of Wynn Macau debt and a $1.94 billion promissory note at the parent company."
  • "Corporate expense was up approximately $12 million during the quarter, primarily resulting from expenses associated with the redemption of the Aruze USA shares."

Shorting Italy: Trade Update

Positions in Europe: Short Italy (EWI); Short France (EWQ); Long German Bonds (BUNL)

This afternoon Keith shorted Italy in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio with the etf EWI broken on its immediate term TRADE and intermediate term TREND levels (see chart below). Our thesis on Italy remains intact: the country’s public debt overhang will continue to compromise growth and reduce tax receipts. PM Mario Monti has followed through on a sizable austerity package and recently has been a strong voice for the camp that suggests Europe needs a Growth Pact (beyond fiscal consolidation) as it attempts to alleviate its sovereign debt and banking imbalances.


Shorting Italy: Trade Update - 11. italia


To date there’s been no mention of a public works projects, but we wouldn’t rule one out over the next months given the likelihood of politicians to cave in the face of riots and strikes against austerity. To this end, just this weekend European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn called for additional government spending on large-scale infrastructure projects, arguing there was insufficient demand in the private sector to create jobs.


Italian fundamentals continue to look extremely challenged: PMI Services declined substantially month-over-month to 42.3 in APR vs 44.3 in MAR and Manufacturing rolled heavily to 43.8 in APR vs 47.9 in MAR, and both have been under the 50 line (representing contraction) since JUN 2011. And we’ve seen similar downward trends across consumer and business confidence surveys. Less current but important indicators like the unemployment rate and inflation rate have remained sticky and high over recent months, currently at 9.8% and 3.8%, respectively.


We see Italy, much like Spain (EWP) and France (EWQ), as a potential short on equity market strength as there exists underlying imbalances (like high debt, deficits, and unemployment rates; banking leverage to housing and property prices that have further room to fall; and potential for further credit ratings downgrades and the inability to raise debt at manageable yields) that are not all priced in and may drag growth lower than forecast.


Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst

A Refreshed Look Upon Our Best Ideas Across Asia & Latin America

Open Virtual Portfolio Positions in the Regions: Long Chinese equities (CAF); Long Brazilian equities (EWZ).


Sometimes lost in our daily Global Macro research grind is a clear and comprehensive view of our highest-conviction longer-term (i.e. TREND and TAIL duration) ideas across a particular region or space. This is both intentional and unintentional to some degree. The former because we believe in keeping our content as topical as possible (i.e. not spamming you with stuff you may already be aware of); the latter because we prefer to focus on new idea generation, rather than cheerleading or dwelling on calls. Every position we’ve ever taken – fundamental or risk managed (there’s a huge difference) – is #TimeStamped on our website for all to see.


With that context, we thought we’d take a moment to briefly update you on our best fundamental ideas out of Asia and Latin America. For the sake of brevity, we are purposefully being succinct here – please feel free to reply with any follow-up questions and/or requests for any of the research notes listed below.



Chinese equities (CAF) – While admittedly boring, we continue view China as the safest place to be in the EM space over the intermediate term. Contrary to consensus storytelling about supply and demand for raw materials, we view incremental Deflating of the Inflation as supportive of the Chinese economy, as it will allow the PBOC, State Council and China Securities Regulatory Commission to continue to implement “fine tuning”, which are pro-growth (i.e. pro-liquidity; pro-investment) measures designed to buoy, but not dramatically stimulate, Chinese economic growth – which our models point to a critical inflection point here in 2Q12. 

  • History – With a few tweaks here and there as price and expectations have changed, this is essentially the same thesis we’ve had since initially being bullish (and wrong) on Chinese stocks in APR ’11. We were then off of that train by the end of SEP ’11 and subsequently back on again at the end of DEC ’11.
  • Recent Relevant Research – 9/28/11: Goodbye China; 12/30/11: Sneaking One Past the Goalie – CAF Trade Update; 1/17/12: China, 2/21/12: China Lowers RRRs – Now What?; With Context; 3/9/12: Triangulating Asia – Divergence In Monetary Policy: Decidedly Dovish Camp; 4/10/12: China Is Boring


Brazilian equities (EWZ) – In short, we view Brazil as the country in the EM space with the most probable upside from an economic growth perspective over the intermediate term. That, in conjunction with the potential erosion of what has been a dramatic idiosyncratic headwind on the FX front with a marginally-hawkish shift to neutral out of the central bank, mean reversion upside risk and increasingly bearish sentiment (“Unfortunately the future looks less bright [in Brazil] than before.” – European Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht on MAY 7), make Brazil a contrarian way to play the other side of our Deflating the Inflation thesis – Reflating the Growth. Still, the Bovepsa is a market that is exposed to energy and basic materials names, so timing will be ultra-critical here. Thankfully, Brazil has developed a tendency to cyclically trough well ahead of other global equity markets (OCT ’08, MAY ’10 and early AUG ’11). While we anticipate that the worst is in the rear view mirror, an accelerated resolve out of Brazilian policymakers to weaken the BRL and/or deter foreign investment will promptly get us to change our positioning here. 

  • History –  After leading the bear debate on Brazil from NOV ’10 through AUG ’11, we’ve been fundamentally in support of Brazilian equities on the long side since SEP ’11.
  • Recent Relevant Research – 9/1/11: Eye On Brazilian Policy – “Oh No You Didn’t”; 12/2/11: Weekly Latin America Risk Monitor – All Eyes On Brazil; 1/23/12: Weekly Latin America Risk Monitor – All Eyes On Brazil Part II + A King Dollar Update; 2/23/12: Triangulating Latin America – Does the Rally In Brazilian Equities Have Legs?; 3/26/12: Hedging the Inflation Trade – EWZ & EWA Combo Trade Update; 5/3/12: What the Heck Is Going On In Brazil?


Filipino equities (EPHE) – The Philippines continues to be this boring little country in SE Asia just humming along from an economic perspective (both growth and inflation are trending in the right direction). Additionally, monetary and fiscal policy have been and look to remain supportive of economic growth, but not so much so that its currency – the Philippine peso – has or should materially suffer (vs. the USD, relative to other EM currencies) over the intermediate term. “Sober” and “well-managed” are two phrases that immediately come to mind regarding the Philippines. 

  • History –  We’ve been bullish on Filipino equities since AUG ’11, with no deviation from this view.
  • Recent Relevant Research – We don’t publish frequently on the Philippines, as it is too small for many of our clients to care on. That said, however, for those of you looking to get up to speed on the fundamental background behind our thesis, refer tour 8/31/11 not titled, “Philippines – One of the Better Stories in Global Macro”.



Japanese yen (FXY) – In the context of what we view as heightened sovereign debt event risk (VAT hike discussions; potential ratings downgrades), we think the Bank of Japan will grow increasingly resolute in pursuing its 1% inflation target over the long term – especially as key monetary policy board seats are turned over. While an increasingly politicized expansion of the BOJ balance sheet is highly likely over the long-term TAIL, we are cognizant of the near-term risks to being short the yen vs. the USD – a cross that has historically been driven by S/T interest rate spreads that look to continue narrowing (in the yen’s favor) over the intermediate term

  • History – We were fundamentally bullish on the Japanese yen in MAY ’11 through the end of SEP ’11 (though occasionally shorting it in our VP to get ahead of proactively predictable interventions). Since then, we've been fundamental yen-bears – a thesis best highlighted by our MAR ’12 seminal piece: Japan’s Debt, Deficit and Demographic Reckoning.
  • Recent Relevant Research – 5/16/11: Time To Press? – Revisiting Japan From a Secular Perspective; 8/24/11: Change A’Cometh In Japan; 8/30/11: Noda Wins! Bullish On Japan?; 3/2/12: Japan’s Debt, Deficit and Demographic Reckoning; 3/6/12: Shorting the Pursuit of Inflation – FXY Trade Update; 4/3/12: Digging Deeper Into Japanese Sovereign Debt Risk; 4/11/12: Will Pressure Bust Pipes In Japan?; 4/26/12: Ichiro’s Coming Out Of Left Field


Aussie dollar (FXA) – The Australian dollar continues to be a currency with an awful lot of mean reversion risk to the downside over the long-term TAIL, as it remains the poster child for Bernanke’s Bubbles in the FX space (up over +35% vs. the USD since Bernanke took office as the Federal Reserve Chairman and up nearly +70% from its 2008 low). Continued Deflating of the Inflation and a secular shift in the Chinese growth model will likely erode Australia’s already-poor current account dynamics and domestic employment situation. This and an increasingly subdued outlook for the Australian property market should force Aussie interest rates lower over the long term. One very key positive here is Australia’s pristine fiscal position and the country’s parliamentary resolve to return the country to a budget surplus in the next fiscal year. 

  • History –  We’ve been fundamentally bearish on the Aussie dollar and trading it with a bearish bias since APR ’11, with a brief inflection from JAN 25, 2012 through mid-MAR in an attempt to take advantage of the Bernank’s Policy To Inflate on the long side of this commodity currency.
  • Recent Relevant Research – 4/6/11: Aussie Dollar – Getting Long in the Tooth?; 5/19/11: Aussie Dollar – Dancing ‘til the Music Stops; 10/11/11: Shorting the Aussie Dollar; 12/13/11: Shorting the Aussie Dollar – Trade Update; 3/9/12: Triangulating Asia – Divergence In Monetary Policy: Decidedly Dovish Camp


Indian equities/rupee/rupee-denominated debt (IFN, INP, ICN) – India remains a country that can’t seem to get out of its own way from a monetary, fiscal and regulatory policy standpoint. An increasingly questionable long-term growth outlook and persistently elevated rates of inflation form a colorful backdrop for consistent “misses” relative to the country’s budget deficit, growth and inflation targets. India remains dramatically short of both capital and crude oil – having to import both in size at steep costs to the economy. As detailed in our recent work, India’s latest budget fiasco has set the country up for a repeat of our 2010-11 Nasty Trifecta thesis. 

  • History – We’ve been bearish on Indian equities since early NOV ’10 and the country’s L/C bond and currency markets since MAY ’11.
  • Recent Relevant Research – 11/9/10: India’s Two Big Problems; 1/6/11: India’s Two-Factor Squeeze; 1/26/11: Top Emerging Market Short Ideas – Indian Equities; 2/28/11: India – Missing Where It Matters Most; 5/3/11: India’s Nasty Trifecta; 10/21/11: Weekly Asia Risk Monitor – Global Bankruptcy Cycle?; 11/28/11: Weekly Asia Risk Monitor – The Many Faces Of King Dollar; 1/20/12: Weekly Asia Risk Monitor – Stress-Testing Asian Risk; 1/9/12: Awful Fundamentals – Out Updated Thoughts On India and Shorting INP Trade Update; 2/17/12: Triangulating Asia – Is It Time for India To Take a Breather?; 3/5/12: Triangulating Asia – Policy Ping Pong Sets Indian Equities Up For a Sustainable Breakout or Breakdown; 3/30/12: India Strikes Out Again; 4/17/11: Is India Out of Bullets?


Argentinean equities/peso (ARGT) – Argentina remains one of the few countries in the reasonably investable universe of emerging markets that has been consistently mismanaged to a greater degree than India. A breakneck trend of oft-maligned schemes of financial repression have temporarily disguised the underlying current of capital flight out of the Argentinean economy. Heighted default risk has been appropriately priced into both the CDS and cash markets for Argentine sovereign debt, as a continued unwind of Bernanke’s Bubbles will threaten the country’s solvency over the long-term TAIL. 

  • History –  We’ve been bearish on Argentine equities and the peso since early NOV ’10, with no deviation from this view.
  • Recent Relevant Research – 11/4/10: Is Argentina Signaling a Cyclical Peak In Emerging Market Asset Values?; 8/22/11: Weekly Latin America Risk Monitor; 8/29/11: Weekly Latin America Risk Monitor; 9/26/11: Weekly Latin America Risk Monitor; 11/3/11: Weekly Latin America Risk Monitor; 11/14/11: Weekly Latin America Risk Monitor – Credit Markets Get It/Equity Markets Do Not; 1/10/12: Weekly Latin America Risk Monitor – Argentina’s Making Noise; 3/7/12: Triangulating Latin America – Default Or Hyperinflation: Argentina’s Tough Choice; 4/18/12: Argentina, Imploding


Have a great week,


Darius Dale

Senior Analyst

the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.