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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 8, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or -0.41% downside to 1364 and 1.34% upside to 1388. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 


EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 5/07 NYSE 252
    • Up from the prior day’s trading of -1545
  • VOLUME: on 5/07 NYSE 754.30
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -8.60%
  • VIX:  as of 5/07 was at 18.94
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -1.15%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -19.06%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/07 closed at 1.31
    • Down from the day prior at 1.42 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.83
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.87
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.58
    • Down from prior day’s trading of 1.62 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:30am: NFIB Small Bus. Optimism, April: est. 92.3, prev. 92.5
  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly sales
  • 8:30am: ECB’s Draghi, Praet speak in Frankfurt
  • 9:45am: Fed’s Lacker meet with students at Greensboro Community College, North Carolina
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, May: est. 48, prev. 49.3
  • 10am: JOLTs Job Openings, March: prev. 3498
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 4-wk bills
  • 12pm: DoE short-term energy outlook
  • 12:45pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks on panel in Dallas
  • 1:00pm: U.S. to sell $32b 3-yr notes
  • 4:30pm: API inventories

 GOVERNMENT:

    • House Financial Svcs panel, led by Rep. Ron Paul, holds hearing on changing mission, structure of Federal Reserve, 10am
    • House, Senate negotiators meet to discuss $109b highway bill, first multi-year transportation plan since 2005 3pm
    • Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia hold primary elections
    • Voters in Wisconsin pick Democrat to challenge Republican Gov. Scott Walker in June recall vote
    • FEC holds closed meeting on compliance matters, 10am
    • HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano;, GSA Acting Administrator Dan Tangherlini speak at Partnership for Public Service event on shrinking federal budget, 8:30am
    • Senate holds test vote to see whether support exists to debate bill to prevent student-loan interest rates from doubling
    • House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk speak at Council of the Americas conference, 10:30am
    • Senate Armed Services panel holds hearing on Pentagon aviation programs, 3pm
    • NRC advisory committee meets on reactor safeguards, 8:30am
    • FERC meets on environmental impact of facilities by Columbia Gas Transmission LLC in Maryland, 7pm    

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • America Movil offers to buy stake in KPN for $3.4b
  • Ally Finl. gets Treasury Dept. approval for ResCap bankruptcy
  • Yahoo! board members have met to discuss CEO Thompson
  • Morgan Stanley raised estimates for collateral and termination payments to $9.6b
  • FDA to release staff reports for May 10 advisory panels on Arena/Eisai’s weight-loss pill lorcaserin and Gilead’s Truvada to prevent HIV infection
  • Marubeni said close to buying U.S. grain trader Gavilon for $5b
  • SEC planning to hire investigator to review complaints about the agency’s internal watchdog unit
  • AMR’s local TWU leaders encourage workers against final contract offer
  • Movie-chain owner AMC Entertainment said to be in sale talks with Wanda Group, NYT says
  • HSBC Holdings 1Q pretax profit rose 26%, beating est.
  • Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman among speakers at Bloomberg Link “Canada Economic Summit” 

EARNINGS:

    • Patriot Coal (PCX) 6am, $(0.34)
    • Keyera (KEY CN) 6:19am, C$0.25
    • Starwood Property Trust (STWD) 6:30am, $0.51
    • Quicksilver (KWK) 6:44am, $(0.04)
    • Fossil (FOSL) 7am, $0.92
    • International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) 7am, $1.00
    • Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) 7am, $2.06
    • Discovery Communications (DISCA) 7am, $0.60
    • NV Energy (NVE) 7am, $0.04
    • TransDigm Group (TDG) 7am, $1.45
    • Henry Schein (HSIC) 7am, $0.92
    • Apollo Global Management LLC (APO) 7am, $0.77
    • OfficeMax (OMX) 7am, $0.16
    • DIRECTV (DTV) 7:30am, $1.05
    • Tenet Healthcare (THC) 7:30am, $0.09
    • Health Care REIT (HCN) 7:30am, $0.88
    • Molson Coors Brewing Co (TAP) 7:30am, $0.43
    • Perrigo Co (PRGO) 7:47am, $1.21
    • Hecla Mining Co (HL) 8am, $0.08
    • Charter Communications (CHTR) 8am, $(0.32)
    • Wendy’s Co/The (WEN) 8am, $0.03
    • George Weston Ltd (WN CN) 8am, C$0.80
    • Liberty Interactive (LINTA) 8:30am, $0.16
    • Liberty Media - Liberty Capital (LMCA) 8:30am, $0.70
    • CI Financial (CIX CN) 11:17am, C$0.33
    • Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR) 4pm, $0.65
    • XL Group (XL) 4:01pm, $0.40
    • Solera Holdings (SLH) 4:05pm, $0.68
    • Walt Disney (DIS) 4:15pm, $0.55
    • Kinross Gold (K CN) 4:15pm, $0.21
    • Chesapeake Midstream Partners (CHKM) 4:15pm, $0.36
    • Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) 4:25pm, $0.44
    • Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) 4:27pm, $0.38
    • Franco-Nevada (FNV CN) 5:15pm, $0.32 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

OIL – now some good news – Brent Oil has now snapped my long-term TAIL line of $113.87 support and is moving into a Bearish Formation. With the US Dollar up for 5 consecutive days, we’re seeing exactly what we should – Deflating The Inflation (this will be the new perma-bull chant) = good for Consumers, globally, on the margin. 

  • Soybean-Crop Bust Spurs China to Drain U.S. Supply: Commodities
  • Oil Declines for a Fifth Day After Al-Naimi Says Prices Too High
  • LME Says It Received ‘A Number’ of Proposals After Deadline
  • Copper Declines on Concern European Austerity Will Be Derailed
  • Gold Falls a Second Day as Stronger Dollar Cuts Investor Demand
  • Wheat Advances for Second Day as Demand Gains for U.S. Supplies
  • Palm-Oil Companies Boost Refining Capacity in Indonesia on Taxes
  • Marubeni Said to Be Close to Buying U.S. Grain Trader Gavilon
  • El Nino May Develop This Year, Australian Forecaster Says
  • China’s Gold Imports Jump as Country May Become Biggest User
  • Oil Supplies Expand for Seventh Week in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Miners Tap Junk Bonds to Rescue Stranded Projects: Canada Credit
  • Copper May Rise 11% on Fibonacci Retracement: Technical Analysis
  • Cocoa Rises in London After New York Climb; Robusta Coffee Gains
  • Record U.S. Chemical Exports Show Kirby Barges Now Full: Freight 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


ITALY – total gong show across European Equities again this morning as hedge funds who covered on the “news” yesterday gave Italian and French stocks a no-volume bounce to lower-highs. We shorted Italy on that yesterday as the MIB remains in a Bearish Formation (see our intraday note), down -18% since March #GrowthSlowing.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


INDIA – so they tried the Keynesian thing and now the Rupee is in free-fall; deficit also climbing as they import inflation; India down -0.9% overnight (down -9% from its Feb 2012 top) looks very different than China right now. We like China long (+11.3% YTD) as Deflating The Inflation (Commodities) helps countries with strengthening FX more.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team