TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 7, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 25 points or -0.37% downside to 1364 and 1.45% upside to 1389.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 5/04 NYSE -1545
- Down from the prior day’s trading of -1194
- VOLUME: on 5/04 NYSE 825.24
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -2.24%
- VIX: as of 5/04 was at 19.16
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 9.11%
- Year-to-date decrease of -18.12%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/04 closed at 1.42
- Down from the day prior at 1.57
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 40
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.85
- Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.88
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.60
- Down from prior day’s trading of 1.63
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 3-mo, $28b 6-mo bills
- 3pm: Consumer Credit, Mar., est. $9.75b (prior $8.735b)
- 7:15pm: Fed’s Lacker speaks in Greensboro, North Carolina
GOVERNMENT:
- President Obama officially started his re-election bid yesterday in the swing states of Ohio and Virginia
- Presidential nominee Mitt Romney campaigns in Cleveland
- House, Senate in session:
- House Budget Committee holds markup of sequester legislation. 2 p.m.
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Treasury Department to sell $5b of AIG stock at $30.5-shr
- Yahoo under pressure from Third Point to dismiss CEO
- Facebook gets first buy recommendation from Wedbush Securities
- Microsoft to claim Motorola is unfairly demanding $4b/year in patent royalties in federal court in Seattle today
- Avengers has record $200.3m in opening-wknd ticket sales
- Voters in France, Greece challenge austerity plans
- Falcone’s LightSquared gets another week from creditors
- Micron to invest 300b yen in Japan’s Elpida, Nikkei says
- Buffett says he’s focusing more on Asia to boost sales
- MLM blocked for 4 months from making hostile bid for rival Vulcan by judge ruling
- Preview of week’s U.S. economic reports
EARNINGS:
- Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) 6 a.m., $0.79
- Dish Network (DISH) 6 a.m., $0.70
- EchoStar (SATS) 6 a.m., $0.02
- Towers Watson & Co (TW) 6 a.m., $1.35
- Cinemark Holdings (CNK) 6:36 a.m., $0.35
- Frontier Communications (FTR) 7 a.m., $0.06
- HollyFrontier (HFC) 7 a.m., $1.21
- Tyson Foods (TSN) 7:30 a.m., $0.39
- Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) 8 a.m., $(0.15)
- Sysco (SYY) 8 a.m., $0.43
- Coeur d’Alene Mines (CDE) 8 a.m., $0.43
- Dendreon (DNDN) 4 p.m., $(0.64)
- Rackspace Hosting (RAX) 4 p.m., $0.17
- Wesco Aircraft Holdings (WAIR) 4 p.m., $0.26
- Electronic Arts (EA) 4:01 p.m., $0.16
- Pitney Bowes (PBI) 4:01 p.m., $0.50
- Vivus (VVUS) 4:01 p.m., $(0.13)
- Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) 4:05 p.m., $(0.18)
- ProAssurance (PRA) 4:05 p.m., $1.41
- Wynn Resorts (WYNN) 4:05 p.m., $1.41
- Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) 4:06 p.m., $1.51
- Dun & Bradstreet /The (DNB) 4:14 p.m., $1.32
- Avis Budget Group (CAR) 4:15 p.m., $(0.01)
- Hillenbrand (HI) 4:20 p.m., $0.50
- Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) 4:30 p.m., $1.02
- Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) 4:55 p.m., $1.77
- Uranium One (UUU CN) 5:01 p.m., $0.02
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Hedge Funds Bet Wrong Before Biggest Slump in 2012: Commodities
- Copper Declines on French Election Outcome, U.S. Payroll Figures
- Malaysian Palm-Oil Output Probably Rose Most in Seven Months
- Commodities Close to Erasing 2012’s Gains on Europe, U.S. Data
- Corn Buying by China Seen Rising 35% on Chicken, Pork Demand
- Soybeans Decline on Forecast U.S. Farmers May Expand Planting
- Gold Imports by China From Hong Kong Post Increase in March
- China Needs U.S. Corn to Meet Rising Shortage, Shanghai JC Says
- Dalian Commodity Exchange Starts Options Trading Simulation
- Gold Declines as French, Greek Election Results Weaken the Euro
- Record Gas Use by U.S. Utilities Fails to Drive Up Price: Energy
- Oil Slumps to Four-Month Low on European Elections, U.S. Jobs
- NYSE Euronext Said Willing to Maintain LME Ring in Takeover Bid
- UN Sees Risk of Unrest From Food Costs Above 10-Year Average
- Malaysia Seen Countering Indonesia’s Palm-Oil Export Tax Reform
- South African Gold Mine Deaths Fall to a Record Low in April
CURRENCIES
US DOLLAR – get the USD and the slope of US Growth (slowing) right, and you’ll get a lot of other things right. USD up for the 4th consecutive day on Friday and the SP500 fell for its 3rd consecutive day. The immediate-term Correlation Risk to Strong Dollar vs SPX remains north of -0.8, so that has left a mark. Ultimately its take down oil prices, which is bullish for Consumers, globally.
EUROPEAN MARKETS
FRANCE – no need for a consensus check here; France down another -1.3% this morning isn’t as much the story as the CAC being down -13% now from its YTD high on March 16th. Mean reversion matters, and now you’re seeing Spain, France, and Greece drag German stocks down with them (DAX down -10% from the same March 16th high; Spain and Greece crashing, again).
ASIAN MARKETS
JAPAN – Japanese stocks continue to get rocked, down hard last night (-2.8%) and down for the 16th trading day out of the last 21. The interconnected risk associated with Japan’s fiscal/debt crisis remains well under the consensus radar.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team