In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance.



OVERALL:  WORSE: RevPAR was healthy and top-line was fine, but EBITDA missed expectations due to high SG&A growth and a higher contribution of occupancy to RevPAR than rate.  

    • SAME: 2013 and 2014 bookings are still looking good with most of the strength on the rate side. 
  • SG&A
    • WORSE: even excluding the one-time costs, SG&A was far higher than previous expectations
    • BETTER: Close-in bookings continued to be strong.  In the quarter for the quarter bookings were up 20% with equal contribution from rate and occupancy.  In the quarter for the year bookings were up 30% YoY, driven primarily by rate.  Rate strength was driven by group bookings and higher corporate rates.  They are still seeing a lot of activity come in that 90-day window.
    • BETTER: Hyatt was pleased with their progress and results of their renovations.  Renovations from their big five hotels contributed 190bps in margin improvements QoQ.
    • SAME: Hyatt continues to expect over 20 hotel openings in 2012
    • SAME: The company's long term outlook remained bullish.  The city seems to be absorbing new supply just fine with projected RevPAR growth in the mid-to high single digit range.  Both transit and group demand is up. 
    • SAME: On schedule and hope to open before 2016 Olympics, pre-opening development costs will continue. They still plan on engaging potential partners to complete the project down the road.
  • M&A
    • SAME: Hyatt purchased an asset in Mexico City and remain active in pursing M&A opportunities.  They have yet to see a strong pickup in the transactions market yet.
  • CAPEX:
    • SAME: 2012 guidance was raised from $350MM to $360MM due to the recently announced construction of Hyatt Place Omaha Downtown/Old Market.

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This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

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7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

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Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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