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December was a tough month in Macau and even tougher for Wynn Macau. Following a fairly strong start to Q4, Wynn Macau has struggled and lost share in a declining market in November and December. For Q4, on a year over year basis, we estimate Wynn is flattish in both its mass market and rolling chip business (revenue). However, the month of December was likely down around 10% in both segments. Obviously, this is not a favorable sequential trend. The downturn appears to be related mostly to volume and not hold percentage.

The consensus Wynn Macau EBITDA estimate is around $115 million for Q4. I believe the property could miss this number by $15-20 million. I doubt Wynn Las Vegas will make up the difference. Rather, Wynn Las Vegas may also miss the consensus projection of $65m. Only abnormally good luck at Wynn Las Vegas over the New Year’s celebration can save the quarter.