TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 2, 2012

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or -1.05% downside to 1391 and 0.65% upside to 1415. 












    • Up from the prior day’s trading of -665
  • VOLUME: on 5/01 NYSE 771.45
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -9.45%
  • VIX:  as of 45/01 was at 16.60
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -3.21%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -29.06%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/01 closed at 1.74
    • Down from the day prior at 1.92


  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.93
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.94
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.68
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications (prior -3.8%)
  • 8am: Fed’s Tarullo to speak in New York at the CFR
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, April, est. 170k (prior 209k)
  • 9:45am: ISM New York, April (prior 67.4)
  • 10am: Factory Orders, March, est. -1.7% (prior 1.3%)
  • 10am: U.S. Treasury makes quarterly refunding announcement
  • 10:30am: DOE inventories
  • 12:30pm: Fed’s Lacker speaks on economy in Norfolk, Virginia
  • 6:30pm: Fed’s Evans speaks in Chicago 


    • NRC meets to discuss post-Fukushima recommendations on fires, flooding at power plants caused by earthquakes, 1pm
    • FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski discusses broadband adoption, job creation at National Cable & Telecommunications Assoc, 3pm
    • President Obama scheduled to return to the U.S. after a surprise visit to Afghanistan
    • House, Senate not in session
    • Commerce Dept. advisory panel meets to vote on recommendations to improve U.S. competitiveness in exporting renewable energy, energy efficiency products and services, 10am
    • China, U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Beijing 


  • Carlyle consults buyout playbook to price IPO at 62% discount; IPO expected to price this evening
  • Facebook said to begin marketing share sale as soon as next wk
  • Chinese manufacturing index rose in April to 49.3 vs prelim. 49.1 reported April 23, signaling rebound
  • ADP report may show U.S. added 170k jobs in April after 209k in March
  • U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Neal Wolin said opponents of the Dodd-Frank Act will fail in efforts to roll back part of the regulatory overhaul
  • Genworth Financial’s CEO resigned after an 80% stock plunge since the end of 2006
  • Goldman Sachs said a proposed Fed rule seeking to limit links between banks could cut U.S. economic growth by as much as 0.4 percentage point
  • News Corp.’s Rupert Murdoch may be prompted to lower or sell his 39% stake in BSkyB
  • BP Gulf of Mexico spill trial shouldn’t be delayed until after a proposed hearing on a settlement of most private- party claims, U.S. tells judge
  • Euro-region manufacturing shrank for a 9th month in April
  • Twitter said to have considered buying mobile-photo app Camera+ 


    • AMERIGROUP (AGP) 6am, $0.56
    • Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) 6am, $0.57
    • Macerich (MAC) 6am, $0.69
    • CVS Caremark (CVS) 6:45am, $0.63. Preview
    • Barrick Gold (ABX CN) 6:55am, $1.09; Preview
    • Comcast (CMCSA) 7am, $0.43; Preview
    • El Paso Electric (EE) 7am, $0.12
    • Energizer Holdings (ENR) 7am, $1.08
    • Time Warner (TWX) 7am, $0.64; Preview
    • AllianceBernstein Holding (AB) 7:09am, $0.24
    • Devon Energy (DVN) 7:30am, $1.43
    • IAC/InterActive (IACI) 7:30am, $0.46
    • IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) 7:30am, $2.02
    • Och-Ziff Capital Management Group (OZM) 7:30am, $0.13
    • Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) 7:30am, $0.67
    • Cooper Industries (CBE) 8am, $1.00
    • Loblaw (L CN) 8am, $0.49
    • Mastercard (MA) 8am, $5.30
    • Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) 8am, $0.96
    • Rowan (RDC) 8:15am, $0.34
    • Allete (ALE) 8:30am, $0.77
    • Franklin Resources (BEN) 8:30am, $2.22
    • Clorox (CLX) 8:30am, $1.03; Preview
    • Marathon Oil (MRO) 8:30am, $0.87
    • Allergan (AGN) 9am, $0.87; Preview
    • Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) 9am, $0.39
    • PG&E (PCG) 9:04am, $0.72
    • Edison International (EIX) 4pm, $0.51
    • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc (GMCR) 4pm, $0.64
    • DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc (DWA) 4:01pm, $0.09
    • Kim Realty (KIM) 4:01pm, $0.30
    • Sunoco (SUN) 4:01pm, $ (0.08)
    • Whole Foods Market (WFM) 4:03pm, $0.59
    • Allstate (ALL) 4:05pm, $1.12
    • JDS Uniphase (JDSU) 4:05pm, $0.11
    • Symantec (SYMC) 4:05pm, $0.38
    • Visa (V) 4:05pm, $1.51
    • ValueClick (VCLK) 4:05pm, $0.34
    • ON Semiconductor (ONNN) 4:05pm, $0.09
    • Prudential Financial (PRU) 4:07pm, $1.72
    • Lincoln National (LNC) 4:10pm, $0.98
    • Boston Beer (SAM) 4:10pm, $0.41
    • Continental Resources (CLR) 4:15pm, $0.85
    • Concho Resources (CXO) 4:15pm, $1.13
    • Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) 4:15pm, $0.91
    • Transocean (RIG) 4:15pm; Preview
    • Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) 4:15pm, $ (0.78)
    • RenaissanceRe Holdings (RNR) 4:22pm, $2.42
    • Charles River Laboratories International (CRL) 4:30pm, $0.65
    • Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) 4:30pm, $1.20
    • Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ) 4:30pm, $0.00
    • First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) 5pm, $0.24
    • Murphy Oil (MUR) 5pm, $1.52
    • Tesoro (TSO) 5pm, $0.27 


  • Trafigura Follows Raffles Into Heart of Asian Trade: Commodities
  • Philippines Cuts Rice Imports as Harvest Swells, Alcala Says
  • Investors Dump Commodities in Longest Slide Since November
  • Trafigura Hires Bankers for Commodity Trade Finance Business
  • Oil Drops From Five-Week High on U.S. Supply, European Economy
  • Gold Declines a Second Day on Speculation Stimulus Not Needed
  • Corn Declines a Second Day as Rainfall Boosts U.S. Crop Outlook
  • Cocoa Reaches Five-Week High on Supply Speculation; Sugar Falls
  • Copper Falls as Euro-Area Manufacturing Shrinks for Ninth Month
  • Exxon Pact Spurs Rosneft Bonds in $5 Billion Plan: Russia Credit
  • YPF Bondholders Lose Faith in Takeover Clause: Argentina Credit
  • Freedom From Gazprom Tempts Ukraine as Exxon Hunts Shale: Energy
  • Brazil Steelmaker CSN Shares Plummet on Disruptive Rail: Freight
  • Gold Rally Stalling at $1,700 Before Drop: Technical Analysis
  • Congo Fighting Thwarts Plans to Export Conflict-Free Minerals
  • Wien Bearish on Oil First Time as Output Swells: Energy Markets
  • BHP Copper Mine Threatened by Mooted Tax Change, Citigroup Says 





US DOLLAR – the Bernanke Bailout beggers can only hold this USD ball under water for so long before the Europeans and/or the Japanese start to burn their currencies at the stake – its all relative in the Currency War, so get used to it. Dollar having its 1st up day in weeks and Commodities go really red on that (immediate-term correlation USD/CRB back at 0.8).






EUROPE – apparently the European economy was not allowed to cease to exist this morning and for all the ISM fans out there, some of these European ISM’s are train wrecks (Germany 46.9, Italy 43.9, Spain 43.5!). New orders for Italy had a 3 handle at 39 and change. Ouchy


BUNDS – hot cross German Bunds; we like those as they push to new highs here this morning - #GrowthSlowing still matters and that’s why you buy Bunds and UST Bonds. We bought TLT yesterday on the associated no-volume rally in US stocks.














The Hedgeye Macro Team


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

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7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

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Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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