THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 26, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.98% downside to 1377 and 0.24% upside to 1394. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/25 NYSE 1631
    • Up from the prior day’s trading of 1052
  • VOLUME: on 4/25 NYSE 822.21
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 9.32%
  • VIX:  as of 4/25 was at 16.82
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -7.07%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -28.12%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/25 closed at 1.45
    • Down from the day prior at 2.67 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.96
    • Down from prior day’s trading of 1.98
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.69
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.72 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

ECONOMY:

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed, March (prior -0.09)
  • 8:30am: Jobless Claims, wk of Apr. 21, est. 375k (prior 386k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, wk of Apr. 22 (prior -31.4)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac 30-yr mortgage
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales (M/m), March, est. 1.0% (prior - 0.5%)
  • 10:30am: EIA natural gas
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, Apr., est 7 (prior 9)
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $29b 7-yr notes 

GOVERNMENT:

  • House, Senate in session:
    • House Ways and Means subcommittee holds hearing on tax extenders, 10am
    • Senate Banking Committee hears from Housing Secretary Shaun Donovan on the budget for HUD, 10am
    • Joint Economic Committee holds hearing on gasoline prices, 2:15pm
    • Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner speaks in S.F. about the global economy ahead of annual U.S.-China strategic talks, 4pm 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • BlackRock said to plan to start a fund with China Investment Corp.
  • Sun Microsystems co-founder Scott McNealy set to testify in Oracle IP trial
  • Mitsubishi said to consider bid for Gavilon Group, joining companies interested in the U.S. grain handler
  • Arch Coal said to be seeking buyers for several of its thermal-coal mines in the U.S.
  • Spotify said to be developing a U.S. Internet radio service that would take on Pandora Media
  • Vivendi said to consider overhaul of company structure that may lead to breakup of company
  • AstraZeneca CEO David Brennan to retire, cut profit forecast
  • Euro-Area April economic confidence drops more than forecast
  • Global earnings: Deutsche Bank 1Q profit falls more than est.; Volkswagen 1Q operating profit beats 

EARNINGS:

    • Aetna (AET) 6am, $1.40
    • Ball (BLL) 6am, $0.59
    • Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (HOT) 6am, $0.52
    • Iron Mountain (IRM) 6am, $0.28
    • MetroPCS Communications (PCS) 6am, $0.17
    • Potash of Saskatchewan (POT CN) 6am, $0.64
    • Time Warner Cable (TWC) 6am, $1.25
    • Tyco International (TYC) 6am, $0.79
    • Whirlpool (WHR) 6am, $1.08
    • Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) 6am, $0.57
    • Bunge Ltd (BG) 6:30am, $1.17
    • Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) 6:30am, $0.33
    • Dow Chemical (DOW) 6:30am, $0.60
    • L-3 Communications Holdings (LLL) 6:30am, $1.87
    • Mylan (MYL) 6:30am, $0.50
    • PulteGroup (PHM) 6:30am, $(0.03)
    • AmerisourceBergen (ABC) 7am, $0.81
    • Ametek (AME) 7am, $0.65
    • Colgate-Palmolive (CL) 7am, $1.24
    • CME Group (CME) 7am, $4.01
    • CONSOL Energy (CNX) 7am, $0.58
    • Digital Realty Trust (DLR) 7am, $1.05
    • Entergy (ETR) 7am, $0.75
    • Fidelity National Information (FIS) 7am, $0.51
    • Interpublic Group (IPG) 7am, $(0.10)
    • Moody’s (MCO) 7am, $0.69
    • Altria Group (MO) 7am, $0.49
    • Omnicare (OCR) 7am, $0.77
    • PepsiCo (PEP) 7am, $0.67
    • Raytheon Co (RTN) 7am, $1.16
    • Tellabs (TLAB) 7am, $(0.03)
    • Xcel Energy (XEL) 7am, $0.37
    • Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) 7am, $1.30
    • Goodrich (GR) 7:25am, $1.65
    • Noble Energy (NBL) 7:28am, $1.42
    • Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) 7:30am, $(0.29)
    • Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY) 7:30am, $0.64
    • Celgene (CELG) 7:30am, $1.13
    • CMS Energy (CMS) 7:30am, $0.41
    • Dominion Resources (D) 7:30am, $0.87
    • Invesco Ltd (IVZ) 7:30am, $0.44
    • JetBlue Airways (JBLU) 7:30am, $0.08
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) 7:30am, $1.71
    • Mead Johnson Nutrition Co (MJN) 7:30am, $0.78
    • Occidental Petroleum (OXY) 7:30am, $1.92
    • Waste Management (WM) 7:30am, $0.40
    • United Continental Holdings (UAL) 7:30am, $(1.10)
    • Monster Worldwide (MWW) 7:35am, $0.03
    • United Parcel Service (UPS) 7:45am, $1.01
    • Liz Claiborne (LIZ) 7:51am, $(0.12)
    • Avnet (AVT) 8am, $0.99
    • BorgWarner (BWA) 8am, $1.29
    • Kellogg (K) 8am, $0.99
    • Exxon Mobil (XOM) 8:04am, $2.08
    • Cameron International (CAM) 8:10am, $0.55
    • Shoppers Drug Mart (SC CN) 8:28am, C$0.57
    • Vulcan Materials Co (VMC) 8:30am, $(0.44)
    • TransAlta (TA CN) 8:54am, C$0.23
    • Safeway (SWY) 9am, $0.30
    • Amazon.com (AMZN) 4pm, $0.07
    • Expedia (EXPE) 4pm, $0.14
    • Federated Investors (FII) 4pm, $0.39
    • Informatica (INFA) 4pm, $0.33
    • Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) 4pm, $0.28
    • Principal Financial Group (PFG) 4pm, $0.74
    • Angie’s List (ANGI) 4pm, $(0.26)
    • Clearwire (CLWR) 4pm, $(0.40)
    • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) 4pm, $0.53
    • Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS) 4:01pm, $0.03
    • Cerner (CERN) 4:01pm, $0.50
    • Axis Capital Holdings Ltd (AXS) 4:01pm, $1.09
    • Coinstar (CSTR) 4:01pm, $1.39
    • MetLife (MET) 4:03pm, $1.29
    • Starbucks (SBUX) 4:03pm, $0.39
    • VeriSign (VRSN) 4:04pm, $0.43
    • Cincinnati Financial (CINF) 4:05pm, $0.41
    • Gilead Sciences (GILD) 4:05pm, $0.93
    • Leggett & Platt (LEG) 4:05pm, $0.32
    • Republic Services (RSG) 4:05pm, $0.42
    • Validus Holdings Ltd (VR) 4:05pm, $0.70
    • Zynga (ZNGA) 4:05pm, $0.05
    • KLA-Tencor (KLAC) 4:15pm, $1.10
    • Western Digital (WDC) 4:15pm, $1.53
    • Eastman Chemical (EMN) 5:06pm, $1.14 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • Mad Cow Case Seen as No Bar to Record Beef Exports: Commodities
  • Natural Gas to Climb as Goldman Sees Output Cuts: Energy Markets
  • Mexico Oil Opening First Time Since 1938 Shows Revival: Energy
  • Mitsubishi, Marubeni Said to Consider Offers for Gavilon
  • Copper Heads for Highest Close in Three Weeks on Supply Outlook
  • Aluminum Appliance Demand in China Little Changed This Year
  • Indonesia Halts U.S. Beef on Mad-Cow Disease, Minister Says
  • Gold Extends Advance on Optimism Fed to Do More to Spur Growth
  • India to Get Normal Monsoon Rain This Year, Weather Bureau Says
  • Farmers at Center of Mad Cow Probe Grumble Over Tainted Image
  • Corn Climbs on Signs of Increased China Demand; Soybeans Gain
  • Sugar Production in Pakistan Seen Climbing on Yields, Group Says
  • Palm Oil Declines as Higher Malaysian Output May Boost Supplies
  • China Said to Plan Increase in Rapeseed Prices to Spur Planting
  • Oil Trades Near Weekly High on Fed; Iran Considers Nuclear Halt
  • China to Phase Out 700,000 Tons of Outdated Copper Capacity

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CURRENCIES


US Dollar – last we checked, nothing happened in Iran yesterday or on the demand side of oil other than the Buck Burning during Bernanke’s presser. This morning, you see the follow through on that as Oil and Gold push toward lower-highs.

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


EUROPE – 1-day squeeze and European Equities are reminded that AAPL isn’t in their indices; straight back down this morning with Spain crashing again (ie down -22% from the Feb top). DAX failing right at our intermediate-term TREND line of resistance (6688) and that’s probably the more important callout on the margin. UK has stagflation with $119/brent.

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ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – you’d think Dollar Down = everything up, especially Tech related Asian Equity markets. Nope. Taiwan -0.55% and KOSPI up 0.1%; both remain bearish TRADE and TREND in our model which is interesting, to say the least. Hong Kong and Singapore Export demand is tanking y/y at -7% and -5% respectively for (March prints).

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team