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HOT YOUTUBE

In preparation for HOT's FQ2 2012 earnings release tomorrow morning, we’ve put together the recent pertinent forward looking company commentary.

 

 

Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference March 5

  • "Our long-term target is to be at least 80% fee-driven, which means continuing to grow out our fee business around the globe, as well as continuing to sell assets, shrink that own portfolio and monetize some of the inventory we have at Vacation Ownership, which has been a meaningful cash contributor to the company."
  • "We made some big changes to our SPG program that we think will allow us to lengthen our lead versus competing programs. You saw this with innovation such as allowing 24-hour check-in for our most elite members. What this means is when you fly over to Europe and land at 7:00 in the morning, you can check into that property that morning and have a 24-hour stay rather than having to pay for two nights for that true one-night stay." 
  • "75% of our revenues are driven by the business traveler."
  • [Fees] "Today... almost 60% non-U.S... and longer-term, we'd like to be at least 80% non-U.S. It shouldn't surprise you that when you look at our pipeline, 85% of our pipeline is going to be built in markets outside of the U.S."
  • "So, supply growth is very low today and with very few signings for new hotels over the last four years and a three-year gestation period from when you sign a hotel until that hotel opens. We would anticipate that there will be a limited supply through at least 2014 and increasingly as we move through 2012, 2015 looks to be a benign environment as well."
  • [REVPAR] "We expect mid to high single-digit growth in 2012. You would need 2013 to grow at a similar level just to get back to nominal RevPAR that you had in 2007, but you've had six years of inflation over that time period."
  • "Without the new supply coming in, you would expect to see a potential scenario where demand is in excess of supply, and you can either grow occupancy with rate or trade up some of those occupancy gains to keep pushing rate until you got back to prior peak margins."
  • "Occupancies at our owned hotels are actually back to prior peak levels. For the system, we're still running a few hundred basis points below where we were in 2007. But, these types of occupancies are high enough that you're able to drive compression in the hotels and be pretty aggressive about pushing rate, and we've been pushing rate hard. 
  • "We're focused on growing SG&A roughly in-line with inflation, any additional SG&A growth will be driven by investments in select markets like Asia-Pacific where we need that growth to support our rapid unit growth."

Youtube from Q4 Conference Call

  • "The impact of renovations and asset sales is most significant in Q1, a drag of almost $5 million. Also business conditions in Canada and Europe are sluggish right now. Our outlook assumes some improvement as the year progresses. As such, owned EBITDA is depressed in the first quarter. SG&A growth in Q1 will also be higher by $5 million than the full year run rate of 3% to 5% would suggest. This is due to some items in 2011 SG&A which were non-recurring."
  • "We set a company record for new rooms added to our system, a record we aim to beat again in 2012." 
  • [Vacation Ownership segment] "We have several years of inventory left to monetize and our team is looking at capital-friendly and high return ways to maintain our sales pace."
  • "Our baseline scenario for 2012 targets REVPAR growth of 5% to 7%, which would translate into full year EBITDA of $1.06 billion to $1.09 billion, and that excludes $80 million from Bal Harbour. REVPAR will continue to be driven by growing demand. Quite frankly, I have yet to see a big customer who says they'll travel less this year than last year. Just like in 2011, our core customers – professional firms, tech, healthcare, and financial services, are profitable, have record cash on hand, and are scouring the world in search of growth." 
  • "We have limited our cash exposure to the euro and Eurozone banks to the extent we can. As we have for the past several years, we have hedged approximately half our euro earnings exposure at $1.44 this year. We're holding the line on our hotel and above-hotel costs, and preparing contingency plans. Since most of our European regional overhead is also euro-denominated, our net earnings exposure to the euro is only 9%."
  • "Our baseline scenario assumes that China and Asia will remain the engines of our owned growth in 2012, that trends we are currently seeing will be sustained through the year. A strong China helps commodity producers in Latin America, which was our fastest growing region in the fourth quarter. These trends are continuing." 
  • "We are optimistic that U.S. travel will return to Mexican resorts in 2012. We are seeing significant renewed interest in Mexico from U.S. groups. We have also looked the possibility of a devaluation in Argentina and what our response would be. Our baseline scenario assumes another year of robust growth in Latin America."
  • "We expect that 2012 will be a year of steady but unspectacular growth in the U.S....we expect a sequential slowdown from last year's 9% REVPAR growth rate."
  • "With around 80% of bids accepted, corporate negotiated rates are up in the mid to high single digits. Lead volumes are up, as is average lead size."
  • "Booking windows continue to lengthen. Group rates are rising. Group pace for 2012 is in the mid single digits. They're up even more in 2013 and 2014 [close to double-digit increases]. Transient momentum remains steady and strong. With occupancies approaching peak levels across the system, rate will remain the key variable to drive REVPAR in 2012."
  • "The underlying rationale for our baseline scenario of company-operated global REVPAR growth of 5% to 7% in local currency. We expect Asia and Latin America to be at or above the high end of the range, North America to be in the middle of the range, and Europe, Africa, and the Middle East to be below the low end of the range... The dollar will be a headwind based on current exchange rates, pulling dollar REVPAR down by 200 basis points."
  • "The Shanghai effect is behind us and Thailand has recovered, so current business momentum is in line with the high end of our outlook range. Also post March, we will benefit from comparisons in North Africa and Japan. In the latter part of the year, comparisons get easier in Europe. As such, the low end of our 2012 outlook range allows for a further slowdown in Europe and knock-on effects elsewhere."
  • "On the owned hotel front, local currency REVPAR will be lower by 4% to 6%, and a further 200 basis points lower as reported in dollars.  34% of our owned EBITDA was derived from Canada and Europe in 2011. These markets will be a drag on same-store owned margin improvement and EBITDA growth."
  • "We have some significant renovations underway in 2012 including the shutdown of The Gritti Palace, the Maria Cristina, and the Clarion at San Francisco Airport. Also under renovation in 2012 will be the Westin Peachtree, the Sheraton Rio, and The Westin Maui, among others. Our total owned EBITDA will be impacted approximately $10 million by 2012 renovations and the hotels we sold in 2011. Also across our hotel business, exchange rates shift negatively impact 2012 EBITDA by approximately $7 million, net of benefits from our euro hedge."
  • "We continue to hold the line on SG&A costs, which will increase only 3% to 5%. More than 70% of the year-over-year increase comes from Asia and Latin America, where we continue to build infrastructure to support the realization of our large pipeline. In the developed world, our goal remains to hold costs as close to flat as possible."
  • "In our Vacation Ownership business, trends remain stable. We will continue to focus on generating cash. We are targeting another $125 million in cash flow from this business in 2012, which includes the securitization late in the year. EBITDA will be roughly flat. To sustain the business, we are making selective investments in new inventory in tried and tested locations, generally where proven sales momentum warrants adding more warranty. Our baseline scenario is expected to deliver 2012 EBITDA of $1.06 million to $1.09 billion, not inclusive of income from Bal Harbour residential sales. Each point of REVPAR impacts EBITDA by approximately $15 million."
  • [Bal Harbour]"Closings will be front loaded as we work through the contracts that have already been signed. Our sales team feels very good about current sales momentum. The buyer base remains largely non-U.S., particularly Latin American. Sales to date have averaged over $1,300 per square foot. We have been able to steadily raise prices after sales were relaunched. The project is coming in on time and under budget. Our baseline scenario assumes at least $80 million in EBITDA from Bal Harbour condo closings and at least $250 million in net cash." 
  • "Including our Bal Harbour condo sales, baseline EBITDA ranges from $1.14 billion to $1.17 billion."
  • "Baseline EPS for 2012 ranges from $2.22 to $2.33. Interest expense is expected to be $212 million. Reduction in interest expense from the paydown of debt is offset by interest that is no longer capitalized for the Bal Harbour project. This is why our reported interest expense does not decline as much as you might have expected. Our cash interest expense will in fact be almost $50 million lower."
  • "Our estimated tax rate for 2012 is approximately 30%. This is higher than our normalized rate of 26% last year. The increase is largely attributable to the 38.6% GAAP tax rate on Bal Harbour income. It is important to note that there will be no cash taxes paid on Bal Harbour income since we have tax credits we are utilizing. Cash taxes in 2012 will be approximately $100 million."
  • "We are stepping up capital spending in the hotel business on several major renovations as described previously. We are continuing investment to build our technology capabilities and drive our pipeline. Capital expenditure will be up $125 million to $575 million in 2012, $200 million in maintenance and IT capital, and $375 million in ROI projects. Despite the step-up in capital spending, we expect to generate at least $300 million in operating cash flow. 
  • "As always, we are not including any asset sales on our outlook. We remain a seller of hotels where we can realize the values we want."
  • "We feel good about the New York market. We don't know that it will necessarily lead REVPAR and rate growth in North America, but we don't think it's going to be soft either."
  • "We're holding the line on costs with our Lean operations initiative and a variety of other programs. So you should assume that the cost growth is curtailed."
  • "Tour flows, conversion rates, pricing all moving in the right direction. Delinquencies likewise going down, and so there's a return to a much more stable pattern."

Short Selling Opportunity: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

POSITION: Long Utilities (XLU), Short Basic Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI) and SPY

 

Our levels and process have not changed. Prices, Volumes, and Volatilities have. Provided that the US Dollar doesn’t breakout above $80, I think Oil prices remain sticky and growth continues to slow.

 

Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter most: 

  1. Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1394
  2. Immediate-term TRADE support = 1377
  3. Intermediate-term TREND support = 1349 

In other words, we’re at the top end of my immediate-term range and that makes this a Short Selling Opportunity.

 

Manage the risk of the range.

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Short Selling Opportunity: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - SPX


Notable Short Interest Changes

Both Nike and FINL were among the biggest increases in short interest over the past two weeks. But we like both into increasing pessimism.

 

Both Nike and FINL were among the biggest increases in short interest over the past two weeks. Nike sentiment remains quite positive (see our sentiment indicator) – but the fact that short interest has stopped coming down is a callout.  FINL remains in the ‘management credibility penalty box’ after last quarter’s miss. But we like it into increasing pessimism.

 

Notable Short Interest Changes - short interest changes

 

Notable Short Interest Changes - NKE sentiment

 

Notable Short Interest Changes - FINL sentiment


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THE HBM: MCD, PNRA, DPZ, BWLD

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR

 

HEDGEYE VIRTUAL PORTFOLIO POSITIONS

 

LONGS: JACK, SBUX

 

SHORTS:

 

SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HBM: MCD, PNRA, DPZ, BWLD - subsector

 

QUICK SERVICE

 

MCD: McDonald’s was cut to Hold at Argus Research.

 

PNRA: Panera Bread reported 1Q12 EPS of $1.40 versus consensus of $1.34.  Company comps came in at 7.5% versus consensus 7.4%. 

 

THE HBM: MCD, PNRA, DPZ, BWLD - pnra pod1

 

PNRA: Panera Bread was upgraded to Buy at Miller Tabak.

 

PNRA: Panera Bread was reiterated Overweight at Oppenheimer.

 

DPZ: Domino’s Pizza was raised to Neutral versus Underperform at BofA.

 

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

 

CMG: Chipotle dropped 3.4% on strong volume as Credit Suisse’s downgrade made news.

 

YUM: Yum declined 2% on accelerating volume. 

 

 

CASUAL DINING

 

BWLD: Buffalo Wild Wings reported $0.98 versus $0.95 consensus.  Company comps came in at 9.2% versus consensus of 10.9%.  See our note from last night for additional details. 

 

THE HBM: MCD, PNRA, DPZ, BWLD - bwld pod1

 

BWLD: Buffalo Wild Wings was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.  The price target remains $100.

 

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

 

BWLD: Buffalo Wild Wings declined almost 6% on accelerating volume on earnings which were released at 3 p.m. rather than after the close, as was expected.

 

EAT: Brinker gained 1% on accelerating volume.

 

THE HBM: MCD, PNRA, DPZ, BWLD - stocks

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 


Yesterday's Pile

This note was originally published at 8am on April 11, 2012. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“Here yesterday, gone today.”

-Niall Ferguson

 

Yesterday’s Early Look note about my Pile yielded some very thoughtful replies. I don’t do this enough, but I’d simply like to say thank you - thanks to all of you who take the time to send me your thoughts. I read each and every one of your emails. I learn from you every day.

 

Going back to the well this morning, here’s what came out of my Pile on last night’s flight to Kansas City, Missouri:

  1. Jeremy Grantham: “Longest Quarterly Letter” (February 2012)
  2. Niall Ferguson: “Western Civilization – Decline or Fall?” (March 2012)

Grantham’s long-term quibble is one we write about a lot – getting quantitatively oriented: “It would certainly help if the general public were better educated, especially in science… it is said that 8 of the 9 senior leaders in China’s government are scientists. At that high a level, of our 535 Congressmen and the President, less than a handful – arguably only 2 or 3 – would pass the test.”

 

Ferguson’s thoughts preface his latest book. They’re very much in line with Grantham’s when it comes to reminding the American People, Media, and Markets to wake-up to a non-US centric world before history’s lessons really start to rhyme: “The bad news is that its shape is more like an exponentially steepening slope that quite suddenly drops off like a cliff.

 

Two of the world’s Top Economic Historians warning us that The Fed and Congress have un-qualified opinions and un-checked policies that infect globally interconnected markets, every day. Think about it.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

“Here yesterday, gone today”, whatever happened to that no-volume “bull market” in US Equities?

 

Instead of calling a trivial 1-factor model like the 50-day Moving Monkey a risk management process, let’s get real with the 21st century here and get quantitative. Multi-factor, Multi-Duration is what we do and using a very simple 3-factor baseline model, here’s what we see in the SP500:

 

1.   PRICE – since immediate-term TRADE support (1391) snapped, our intermediate-term TREND line (1331) is now in play. Managing your risk within this dynamically evolving range of 1331-1391 is how you should think about gross and net exposure.

 

2.   VOLUME – there was no volume on the elevator up, and now that it looks like some are taking the window route on the way down, we’re seeing Volume Studies confirm the gravity of the situation. Yesterday’s volume was an animal, up +46% day-over-day! And up +15% versus my composite average of market down days in 2012.

 

3.   VOLATILITY (VIX) – since immediate-term TRADE (16.24) and TREND (18.76) resistance are now support, US Equity Volatility can continue to put on one heck of a move from here, provided that 18.76 holds. It’s critical to acknowledge that our long-term TAIL zone of 14-15 VIX support held like the rock of Gibraltar, again.

 

Now if you only look at US Equities through the prism of the SP500, you’re missing part of the point. Looking at the correction in the SP500 versus the Russell2000, you can start to see what index is overweight Apple:

  1. SP500 – stopped going up on April 2nd(1419) and has since corrected -4.3%
  2. Russell2000 – stopped going up on March 26th(846) and has since corrected -7.3%

Unlike the SP500, which is holding its intermediate-term TREND line of 1331 support, the Russell2000 has already broken its TREND line of 795. So, inasmuch as you should be watching 1391 resistance in the SP500 today/tomorrow, watch 795 in the Russell.

 

Globally Interconnected?

 

There’s 0% irony that when Small Caps (Russell2000) stopped going up on March 26th, the following occurred:

  1. CRB Commodities Index stopped going up at 326 = down -8% since
  2. Japanese Equities (Nikkei225) stopped going up at 10,255 = down -8% since
  3. US Equity Volatility (VIX) stopped going down at 14.24 = up +43% since

Got an “exponentially steepening slope” (turn the VIX upside down), that “suddenly drops off like a cliff”? Got Apple? Got Global Macro Risk Management?

 

After cliff diving from the Q1 highs in 2008, 2010, and 2011, how many more times do we have to do this? Do you blame the little guy (Old Wall Street still calls her the “Retail Investor”) for not getting sucked into the Storytelling vortex of another Q1 high?

 

And if you still doubt that collapse comes suddenly, just think of how post colonial dictatorships of North Africa and the Middle East imploded this year… One minute rulers had legitimacy in the eyes of their people, the next they did not.” (Ferguson)

 

When it comes to managing what’s left of their own money, The People of America do not appear to be as mathematically inept as either their Congress or Central Planner in Chief. In the long-run, if you break the trust of The People in markets, volumes are dead.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar Index, Russell2000, and the SP500 are now $1618-1668, $116.92-123.12, $79.58-80.28, 774-795, and 1347-1391, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Yesterday's Pile - Chart of the Day

 

Yesterday's Pile - Virtual Portfolio


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 25, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or -0.80% downside to 1361 and 1.46% upside to 1392. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/24 NYSE 1052
    • Up from the prior day’s trading of -1440
  • VOLUME: on 4/24 NYSE 752.12
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -4.15%
  • VIX:  as of 4/24 was at 18.10
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -4.59%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -22.65%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/24 closed at 2.67
    • Up from the day prior at 1.07 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

 

EARNINGS last we checked, the buy-side’s expectations about earnings reflect what stocks do, not what companies do versus lowered y/y earnings expectations. Since you all work on the buy-side, you get it. Sadly, others still don’t. Some stocks have been getting hammered so far here during earnings season. Apple was a legitimate beat vs buy-side worries.

 

BOND YIELDS – no change in Europe (rising credit risks) or the USA (10yr bond yields at 1.98% couldn’t care less about what 1 company did at the close). Apple is a great company and Growth is Slowing, globally – mutually exclusive points, and both remain obvious.

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.98
    • Up from prior day’s trading of 1.97
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.71
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, week of Apr. 20
  • 8:30am: Durable Goods, Mar., est. -1.7% (prior 2.4%, revised)
  • 8:30am: Durables Ex/Trans, Mar., est. 0.5% (prior 1.8%, revised)
  • 8:30am: Cap Goods Nondef Ex/Air, Mar., est. 1.0% (prior 1.2%)
  • 10:30am:DOE inventories
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $35b 5-yr notes
  • 12:30pm: FOMC Rate Decision, est. 0.25% (prior 0.25%)
  • 2:00pm: FOMC releases economic, Fed funds projections
  • 2:15pm: Fed’s Bernanke holds press conference 

GOVERNMENT:

  • Supreme Court hears arguments in Obama administration’s challenge to Arizona’s crackdown on illegal immigration, 10am
  • President Obama speaks to students at University of Iowa, 2:20pm
  • House, Senate in session:
    • Senate Agriculture Committee marks up farm bill, 9am
    • House Financial Services subcommittee hears from SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro at oversight hearing, 10am
    • Senate Judiciary Committee hears from Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano at an oversight hearing, 10am
    • Senate Banking Committee holds hearing on helping homeowners save money through refinancing, 10am
    • Senate Armed Services subcommittee holds hearing on missile defense,  2:30pm
    • Senate Appropriations subcommittee hears from FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski on expanding broadband access and promoting innovation,  2:30pm 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • FOMC issues rate decision at 12:30pm, followed later by Bernanke press conference at 2:15pm
  • Britain unexpectedly enters first double-dip recession since 1970s as U.K. economy shrunk in 1Q
  • U.S. durable goods ex-transportation probably gained, economists est., on rising demand for cars, auto supplies
  • Amgen agreed to buy closely held Mustafa Nevzat for almost $700m
  • Watson Pharmaceuticals may announce buying Actavis for ~EU4.5b
  • Cattle futures rebounded as Japan and Taiwan said they wouldn’t alter import controls on U.S. beef
  • China Auto Rental postponed what would have been the second U.S. IPO this yr by Chinese company
  • Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney swept five primaries, including Pennsylvania, N.Y.
  • Global earnings: Credit Suisse unexpectedly posted profit, China Unicom 1Q profit missed est.
  • Apple 2Q profit beat est., helped by Chinese iPhone demand; watch U.S. suppliers including TriQuint Semi, Cirrus Logic, Broadcom 

 EARNINGS:

    • Cenovus Energy (CVE CN) 6am, C$0.54
    • Encana (ECA CN) 6 a.m., $0.03
    • WR Grace & Co (GRA) 6 a.m., $0.81
    • Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) 6 a.m., $(0.13)
    • Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) 6 a.m., $1.11
    • Wellpoint (WLP) 6 a.m., $2.29
    • TE Connectivity (TEL) 6 a.m., $0.66
    • Praxair (PX) 6:01 a.m., $1.36
    • Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) 6:30 a.m., $0.55
    • Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) 6:30 a.m., $0.78
    • AutoNation (AN) 6:45 a.m., $0.53
    • General Dynamics (GD) 7 a.m., $1.69
    • Harley-Davidson (HOG) 7 a.m., $0.71
    • Lorillard (LO) 7 a.m., $2.00
    • Motorola Solutions (MSI) 7 a.m., $0.54
    • NASDAQ OMX Group (NDAQ) 7 a.m., $0.63
    • Northrop Grumman (NOC) 7 a.m., $1.59
    • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) 7 a.m., $1.40
    • Rockwell Automation (ROK) 7 a.m., $1.27
    • Sprint Nextel (S) 7 a.m., $(0.41)
    • Tupperware Brands (TUP) 7 a.m., $0.96
    • Nielsen Holdings NV (NLSN) 7 a.m., $0.27
    • Corning (GLW) 7 a.m., $0.28
    • MeadWestvaco (MWV) 7:05 a.m., $0.24
    • Boeing (BA) 7:30 a.m., C$0.93
    • Caterpillar (CAT) 7:30 a.m., $2.13
    • Delta Air Lines (DAL) 7:30 a.m., $(0.04)
    • Hess (HES) 7:30 a.m., $1.54
    • Molex (MOLX) 7:30 a.m., $0.34
    • Owens Corning (OC) 7:30 a.m., $0.30
    • Southern (SO) 7:30 a.m., $0.45
    • NextEra Energy (NEE) 7:31 a.m., $0.97
    • Dr Pepper Snapple Group (DPS) 8 a.m., $0.48
    • US Airways Group (LCC) 8 a.m., $(0.23)
    • Bell Aliant (BA CN) 8:08 a.m., $0.41
    • Avery Dennison (AVY) 8:30 a.m., $0.44
    • Akamai Technologies (AKAM) 4 p.m., $0.38
    • Las Vegas Sands (LVS) 4 p.m., $0.60
    • Varian Medical Systems (VAR) 4 p.m., $0.96
    • Williams Cos (WMB) 4 p.m., $0.36
    • Crown Castle International (CCI) 4:01 p.m., $0.18
    • LSI (LSI) 4:01 p.m., $0.14
    • AvalonBay Communities (AVB) 4:01 p.m., $1.24
    • Williams Partners (WPZ) 4:01 p.m., $0.89
    • Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) 4:01 p.m., $0.52
    • Owens-Illinois (OI) 4:02 p.m., $0.67
    • Equinix (EQIX) 4:02 p.m., $0.53
    • Fidelity National Financial (FNF) 4:04 p.m., $0.25
    • Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL) 4:05 p.m., $0.71
    • Citrix Systems (CTXS) 4:05 p.m., $0.51
    • Everest Re Group Ltd (RE) 4:05 p.m., $3.45
    • Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) 4:05 p.m., $0.15
    • Raymond James Financial (RJF) 4:08 p.m., $0.57
    • Assurant (AIZ) 4:15 p.m., $1.43
    • Equity Residential (EQR) 4:15 p.m. $0.62
    • Xilinx (XLNX) 4:20 p.m. $0.41
    • Duke Realty (DRE) 4:29 p.m. $(0.06)
    • Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) 4:31 p.m. $1.12
    • Range Resources (RRC) 5:10 p.m. $0.13
    • Gold (G CN) 5:15 p.m. $0.54
    • O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) 6:30 p.m. $1.04
    • SL Green Realty (SLG) 6:40 p.m. $0.06
    • Lundin Mining (LUN CN) Post-Mkt $1.05
    • Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) Post-Mkt $0.89    

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Cattle Futures Rebound as Japan, EU Unmoved by U.S. Mad Cow
  • GDF Suez Says Force Majeure Ended at Three French LNG Terminals
  • Power Shortage Hurts Chile $100 Billion Copper Push: Commodities
  • Mad Cow Case May Pose Little Threat to U.S. Feed Crop Demand
  • U.K. Gas Snaps Two-Day Decline as Imports Slow, Exports Rise
  • Copper Advances as Company Earnings Lift Equities, Commodities
  • Soybeans Climb to Three-Year High as Freeze Cuts Argentina Crop
  • Sugar Climbs as Demand Increases Before Ramadan; Cocoa Advances
  • Gold May Decline as Investors Hold Off Buying Before Fed Report
  • Commodity Trade Finance Lending Fell 15% at Most, ABN Amro Says
  • Mad Cow Disease Remains Rare Since Discovery in U.K.: Factsheet
  • Barrick Gold Joins Global War for Talent: Corporate Canada
  • Vale to Redesign Giant Ore Ships to Protect Crews From Pirates
  • German Shipping Funds Die as Investors See Losses Rise: Freight
  • Cattle Rebounds After Plunging on Mad Cow
  • Mad Cow in California Shows Need for More Tests, Groups Say
  • Japan Has No Plan to Suspend U.S. Beef Imports ‘At the Moment’ 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

INDIA  most fascinating factors we woke up to this morning were big Asian Stock markets closing down on the day (India, KOSPI, Hang Seng) despite the US Futures fanfare. India’s rating outlook was cut by S&P because it should have been – they are a net importer of $118 oil, running a big deficit, with GDP slowing. UK missed GDP as well this morning = stagflation.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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