Is Money Supply Inflationary? You Bet Your Madoff!

The Federal Reserve reported their Money Stock Measures yesterday and November showed a y-o-y increase of M2 money supply of 7.6%, which is the highest y-o-y growth rate in the last 12 months and, as seen on the chart below, is on an accelerating trajectory. Undoubtedly, money supply only accelerated in December as the Federal Reserve became even more focused on deflationary pressures and the need to stimulate growth.

We would expect money supply to continue to grow, especially since there no longer exists the “policy lever” option to adjust interest rates now that the current target rate for federal funds stands at 0 - 0.25%, or effectively zero. As Fed Chairman Bernanke outlined in a 2004 speech:

“Indeed, under a fiat (that is, paper) money system, a government (in practice, the central bank in cooperation with other agencies) should always be able to generate increased nominal spending and inflation, even when the short-term nominal interest rate is at zero. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation. If we do fall into deflation, however, we can take comfort that the logic of the printing press example must assert itself, and sufficient injections of money will ultimately always reverse a deflation.”

Bernanke’s remarks lead us to believe that the next policy step is to “print” money. More money ultimately results in the declining value of money, which is always inflationary.

We have been a bit of a lone voice beating the “re-flation” drum in the past few weeks, but this report from the Fed seems to suggest, especially if the money supply continues to accelerate, that “reflation” is not a matter of if, but when.

Stock markets are certainly “re-flating” today.

Daryl G. Jones
Managing Director

The New German Flat Tax on Capital Gains

A new German tax code will be taking effect on January 1, 2009. Until the end of this year the current code for many investments—including stocks or funds—are exempt from tax on profits if one has kept investments for longer than one year. For other forms of profits, such as dividends, the so called “Halbeinkünfte-Verfahren” was applied by taxing only half of the profits with one’s normal income tax rate.

Come January 1, 2009 a new tax code will replace the old code with a flat tax of 25% (plus solidarity money for the former East German states and church tax). This would result in a maximum tax of 28% for future profits from investments. This means, any investments made before the end of the year will be taxed according to the old rules even if it matures or is sold in ten years time.

For many investors the new flat tax will represent a tax increase on investments. Certainly with any tax code there will be exceptions and ways to work around the code, yet the present income tax rules demonstrate that for even the highest income earners (who are taxed at the highest rate at ~45%) the new tax is incrementally higher. Here is an approximate breakdown of current taxable income by income bracket:

Taxable Income (in Euros) for a Single Person Taxable Income (in Euros) for a Married Couple Marginal Tax Rate (2008)
0 - 7,664 0 - 15,329 0%
7,665 - 52,152 15,330 - 104,304 ~15-42%
52,153 - over 104,305 - over ~42-45%

This switch will create organizational stress for investors who will now have to separate “old” investments from future ones in order to avoid problems with tax authorities.

Matthew Hedrick

The Bullish Reference Rate

I use 3-month LIBOR is a reference rate, not only for those who need to borrow at LIBOR “plus” but as a measure for global counterparty risk.

Alongside the US Dollar (“re-flation”) and a VIX (volatility) indices breaking down, this crashing of LIBOR is amongst the most bullish macro indicators in my playbook.

Below, we have attached both the “Trade” and “Trend” lines for 3-month LIBOR. Both have been broken. Both are bullish for Equities, Commodities, Bonds, and Real Estate, in the immediate term.

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A Macro Mystery

A Macro Mystery - asset allocation123008

“The most beautiful experience we can have is the mysterious. It is the fundamental emotion that stands at the cradle of true art and true science...”
-Albert Einstein

Managing my way around this increasingly interconnected global landscape of macro factors, that’s exactly how I have been feeling over the course of the last few weeks - standing “at the cradle of true art and true science…”

Most will agree that consistently earning an absolute return across global macro investment cycles is far from a science. Some are beginning to agree that math and neuroscience are finding a special place in terms of making accurate market predictions. No one will agree that there is a standard (and legal) investment process that is solely based on “art”. That’s what makes this game great. There is a bid and an ask price for every point of view.

In the US market, here are three critical levels of support that the mathematician in me continues to be beholden to: SP500 864, Nasdaq 1501, and Russell 456. Notwithstanding yesterday’s bone dry volume, the “beauty” of the trading “experience” was that, intraday, all 3 of those levels were broken, tested, and tried. As mysterious as it was, all of those indices rallied into the close …  once again confirming the current bullish “Trade” opinion for which I am currently accountable.

On the global macro front, here are three more critical levels that the “artist” in me finds of mathematical relevance: US Dollar Index $82.80, Gold $804/oz, and LIBOR 2.89%. Provided that both the US Dollar and 3-month LIBOR can hold below those levels, I see a very relevant “Re-Flation” Trade continuing to manifest in both Global Equities and Commodities. Gold, of course, needs to hold $804 to confirm this artistically arithmetic conclusion.

All investors have to have a process. For some, that might be asking their friends what they like – for others it could very well be locking themselves in a room with ear muffs. This is what makes markets – where men and women of conviction take a stand and slap it on the tape. Darwin’s rules will win out in the end – the most repeatable process will self select the largest following. My goal, every day, is to prove that my team’s process is worthy of your respect and consideration.

The Russians have considered many economic processes. Over time, most of them have failed. If a process isn’t repeatable across economic cycles, it will fall by the sword of the global capital flows. Today is the anniversary of the USSR’s formation in 1922. Marxist Socialism was tested and tried back then. For a period of time, it actually worked. In the end, it was not repeatable.

My team was both shocked and dismayed that Stalin was voted to the “Top Three Russians Ever” yesterday. No, this wasn’t a 1930’s poll – this was yesterday! The rise of Putin’s nationalist regime has apparently warmed the hearts and minds of Siberians who now have heat, and we get that… heat is good… but for the entire country to find any level of positivity associated with Stalin is both “mysterious” and shocking altogether.

Why is this relevant this morning? Well… “its global this time”… remember? And while we have to admit that Commodities crashing has made the acronym “BRIC” more of a metaphor for what a wall of them feels like when landing on levered long “prop” desk heads… we cannot forget that Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Khazakstan (BRICK) are no less different than SAID (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Drillers) petrodollar kings of the would be “world is awash with liquidity” narrative fallacy past. All of these countries need “Re-flation” to get paid. They are incentivized to do the unthinkable to ensure that both their stock and commodities markets go higher.

If you want to see where the bodies lie in a war, follow the money. Who gets paid for what and why? Both the Israeli and Saudi stock markets have only moved up into the right of their respective charts since the Gaza bombings began. Today is Day 4 of the incursion, and the Middle Eastern stock markets are cheering it on. This isnt art – these are the facts. Debunking how all of these macro factors are interconnected remains both a “beautiful experience” and a mystery to me all at once. But understanding that the Saudis need a $60-70 strike price in oil is far from trivial.

For now, the technicians, scientists, and BRICK layers alike will have a hard time disagreeing with my aformentioned 6 macro levels. I am far from a poet, but within my macro investment process they certainly do rhyme. “Re-flation” is coming…

My upside target for the SP500 remains 915.

Best of luck out there today,

A Macro Mystery - etfs123008


The Obamerica Macro Catalyst

We see a catalyst on the horizon in the way of President Elect Obama’s Inauguration. For those who doubt the ability of an incoming President to have immediate economic impact, especially in a crisis period, we would recommend studying President Roosevelt’s (FDR) first week.

More so than any immediate policy or legislative proposal, FDR’s charisma and the optimism that he conveyed were critical in ending the run on banks that he inherited from President Hoover. In fact, after his first fire side chat, only five days after becoming President, in which he discussed the need for the average citizen to support the banking system, he then reopened the banks that next Monday and citizens lined up to deposit money into banks, which immediately ended the banking crisis.

While we cannot quantify the impact of President Elect Obama becoming President will have on optimism in the U.S., he has a popularity and approval rating that is almost 2x that of President Bush. On January 21st, the United States will wake up with a President that has broad support and approval. And not unlike FDR’s first week, once again, the President words will have an ability to impact the psyche of the country. Additionally, this weekend revealed a couple of more clues in regards to Obama’s initial fiscal plan and, in a nut shell, this plan seems to involve lower than expected taxes and massive stimulus.

In terms of taxes, the following exchange between David Axelrod, Obama’s Campaign Manager and Senior White Advisor, and David Gregory, the Host of Meet the Press was telling:

“MR. GREGORY: All right, but you're not--because the commitment was to, to lower those taxes to definitely--excuse me, I mean to raise those taxes on people by letting those tax cuts expire. You're saying you'll hold on and see. You won't make a decision yet.
MR. AXELROD: Yes, I'm saying that. But I'm also--I also want to stress that what the president-elect and the change--the expiration or the repeal of, of the tax cut for the wealthy, it'll amount to a net tax cut for the American people. It'll just restore some balance, David, which we badly need.”

The message is pretty clear, the idea of raising taxes for the wealthiest Americans is likely off the table in the short term.

In conjunction with Axelrod’s appearance on Meet the Press this weekend, Larry Summers, the incoming director of the National Economic Council, and the “grey hair” on Obama’s economic team wrote:

"In this crisis, doing too little poses a greater threat than doing too much. Any sound economic strategy in the current context must be directed at both creating the jobs that Americans need and doing the work that our economy requires. Any plan geared toward only one of these objectives would be dangerously deficient. Failure to create enough jobs in the short term would put the prospect of recovery at risk. Failure to start undertaking necessary long-term investments would endanger the foundation of our recovery and, ultimately, our children's prosperity."

Summers, who is rarely one to mince words, was very direct in the above statement. The incoming administration is going to err on the side of too much stimulus. And they will have the political capital to do so.

Consumer confidence continues to mount in the face of lower taxes and a massive stimulus . . . Market Bears ignore the potential catalyst of an Obama presidency at their own risk.

Daryl Jones
Managing Director

MCD – Sticking To Their Knitting?

On December 16th, the WSJ ran an article about the best CEOs of 2008. One of the CEOs mentioned was Jim Skinner of McDonald’s. Not to take anything away from Mr. Skinner, but he had very little to do with MCD’s turnaround. Instead, it was his job not to mess with what was working.

The article went on to say that "McDonald's has done a terrific job of improving what it does at its existing locations, improving the food, improving service, expanding the menu, expanding hours." Importantly, "They've stuck to their knitting and made their existing stuff better and it's paid off."

MCD’s new beverage strategy is a clear example of the company now expanding the complexity of its store operations instead of maintaining its simplicity. Expanding into gourmet coffee is not an example of “making stuff better” like the company has done successfully in the past.

I don’t believe that MCD’s beverage strategy will drive top line results in 2009 as most people expect. MCD has been so successful for so long that there is a high level of compliancy surrounding the company’s ability to execute. The Bullish-Bearish Indicator from highlights these high expectations. MCD’s rating currently stands at a 60.2 versus the average for all QSR names (including MCD) of 21.9. Additionally, MCD’s bullish-bearish indicator has increased since December 2007 while the rest of the group has declined.

Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.52%
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