THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 23, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 38 points or -1.63% downside to 1356 and 1.12% upside to 1394. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/20 NYSE 947
    • Up from the prior day’s trading of -530
  • VOLUME: on 4/20 NYSE 965.98
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 17.38%
  • VIX:  as of 4/20 was at 17.44
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -5.01%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -25.47%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/20 closed at 1.31
    • Down from the day prior at 1.62 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


GROWTH SLOWING – when we say that, we mean it globally. The words USA “de-coupling” is an Old Wall St word that has not worked in the last 5yrs. The world is as globally interconnected as its ever been and what policy does to the world’s reserve currency has very consequential impact on the intermediate-term slopes of growth and inflation. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 40
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.07%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.92
    • Down from prior day’s trading of 1.96
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.66
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.70 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • No major U.S. economic releases scheduled
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 3-mo., $28b 6-mo. bills
  • 11:45am: ECB’s Weidmann speaks in New York City 

 GOVERNMENT:

    • Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner holds briefing on Social Security, Medicare trustee reports, 1:45pm
    • FDIC board meets on projected deposit insurance fund losses, income, reserve ratios for its restoration plan, 2pm
    • President Obama speaks at Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington
    • House, Senate in session 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Nestle agrees to buy Pfizer baby food unit for $11.9b
  • ITC judges expected to rule in Motorola Mobility disputes, 5pm
  • Amylin said to seek buyers after rejecting earlier Bristol offer
  • Vodafone agrees to acquire Cable & Wireless for $1.7b
  • AstraZeneca to buy Ardea Biosciences for $1.26b
  • Beam may announce today $600m purchase of Pinnacle vodka brand from White Rock Distilleries Inc.: WSJ
  • Wal-Mart Stores’s probe of possible bribery in Mexico may prompt executive departures, steep U.S. government fines: corporate government experts
  • IBM hosts annual meeting tomorrow; watch for dividend boost and/or buyback announcement in next two days
  • US Airways said Friday it reached agreement on contract terms with AMR’s major unions, moves closer to bid for co.
  • Socialist Francois Hollande, President Nicolas Sarkozy progressed to the final round of France’s election 

EARNINGS:

    • SunTrust Banks (STI) 6am, $0.33
    • Eaton (ETN) 6:30am, $0.90
    • Wolverine World Wide (WWW) 6:30am, $0.55
    • Hasbro (HAS) 6:30am, $0.07
    • Xerox (XRX) 6:47am, $0.22
    • DR Horton (DHI) 7am, $0.03
    • MGIC Investment (MTG) 7am, $(0.38)
    • RadioShack (RSH) 7am, $0.05
    • Roper Industries (ROP) 7am, $1.04
    • Brinker International (EAT) 7:45am, $0.56
    • ConocoPhillips (COP) 8am, $2.08
    • WR Berkley (WRB) 4pm, $0.66
    • Canadian National Railway Co (CNR CN) 4:01pm, $1.03
    • Illumina (ILMN) 4:01pm, $0.32
    • Ameriprise Financial (AMP) 4:05pm, $1.39
    • Netflix (NFLX) 4:05pm, $(0.27)
    • Health Management Associates (HMA) 4:05pm, $0.22
    • Zions Bancorp (ZION) 4:10pm, $0.27
    • Texas Instruments (TXN) 4:30pm, $0.17
    • IDEX (IEX) 4:35pm, $0.64
    • Crane Co (CR) 5:15pm, $0.91
    • Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) NA, NA    

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Hedge Funds Cut Bullish Wagers Most in Four Months: Commodities
  • Gold Declines in London as Stronger Dollar Curbs Investor Demand
  • Copper Drops as Chinese Manufacturing May Shrink for Sixth Month
  • Oil Drops From Three-Day High as China Crude Consumption Falls
  • Soybeans Fall on Speculation U.S. Farmers Will Increase Sowing
  • Wheat, Rice Harvests in India Seen Reaching Record on Yields
  • Copper May Fall 12% on Elliott Wave Signal: Technical Analysis
  • Robusta Coffee May Fall as Global Supplies Improve; Sugar Gains
  • Rusal’s $43 Billion Seven-Year Glencore Deal Feeds Investor Feud
  • Oman, Dubai Crudes Drop as Saudi Output Rises: Persian Gulf Oil
  • U.K. Gas Rises a Third Day as Temperature to Stay Below Average
  • Three Nigerian Bonny Light Crude Cargoes Added to May Program
  • Goldman Closes Recommendation to Short May-June WTI Spread
  • Carbon Declines as Weaker Euro, Fall in Stocks May Curb Demand
  • China to Buy U.S. Corn If Price Drops to $5.50, Center Says
  • Natural Gas Bulls Cut Bets With Futures Below $2: Energy Markets
  • Chesapeake 25% Decline Seen Spurred by Personal Conflict: Energy 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES


COPPER – the Doctor is getting tagged this morning, down -1.7% and in a Bearish Formation (bearish TRADE, TREND, and TAIL in our model). Commodity prices (or Bernanke’s Bubbles) look a lot like US Treasury Yields again. 10yr yield getting smoked to a fresh 2mth #GrowthSlowing low of 1.93%.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


EUROPE – Spanish stocks are crashing again (down -23% since Growth Slowing started, globally in Feb – Hong Kong and India stock markets stopped going up in Feb too). The French Services PMI print for April was awful (46.1 vs 50.1 MAR) and Italian consumer confidence just hit a record low. Central planning not working. DAX snapping TREND support (6689).

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 


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