In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance.



Overall, RCL was in-line with our expectations even though guidance was lowered.  This should've been expected.  Here is the report card evaluating actual results against management's assertions. 

    • WORSE – 1Q came in at the high end of guidance.  Midpoint FY 2012 EPS guidance was lowered by 15 cents.  FY 2012 constant currency yield guidance was lowered by 1% on the high end to 1-4


    • SAME – slow and steady improvement from Costa Concordia incident.   Cumulative bookings since early February are down mid-single digits.  During the 4Q call, RCL mentioned new reservations dropped in the low-to-mid teens.  North America bookings are improving at a faster pace than European bookings.


    • BETTER – More normal revenue management environment than 3 months ago


    • SAME – European summer itineraries continue to cloud the outlook but consistent with expectations


    • BETTER – Expect Caribbean yields to surpass 2008 level


    • SAME  –  Cruise sales and pricing remain very weak. Good performance from the Pullmantur tour groups lessens the blow a bit


    • SAME–  Australia and Brazil continue to be robust markets. Voyager of the Seas is generating some interest out of Asia


    • WORSE–  Even though FY2012 fuel expenses were only $2MM higher than previous guidance higher drydock, maintance, and tour-related expenses drove up NCC ex fuel guidance by 1% point.


    • SAME –  Still wary of booking

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