TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 19, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 16 points or -0.52% downside to 1378 and 0.64% upside to 1394.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/18 NYSE -1015
- Down from the prior day’s trading of 1632
- VOLUME: on 4/18 NYSE 720.97
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 1.58%
- VIX: as of 4/18 was at 18.64
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 0.98%
- Year-to-date decrease of -20.34%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/18 closed at 2.74
- Increase from the day prior at 1.41
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 40
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.07%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.99
- Up from prior day’s trading of 1.98
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.72
- Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.71
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Jobless Claims, est. 370k (prior 380k)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
- 10am: Philadelphia Fed, April, est. 12.0 (prior 12.5)
- 10am: Existing Home Sales, March, est. 4.62m (prior 4.59m)
- 10am: Leading Indicators, March, est. 0.2 (prior 0.7%)
- 10am: Freddie Mac 30-yr mortgage
- 10:30am: EIA natural gas
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $16b 5-yr TIPS
GOVERNMENT:
- IMF, World Bank spring meetings continue
- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner attends G-20 meeting of finance ministers, central bank governors at IMF to discuss global recovery, policies to ensure stability in Europe
- G-20 economic, trade ministers meet in Mexico
- House, Senate in session:
- House Armed Services Committee hears from Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Joint Chiefs Chairman Martin Dempsey on security in Syria. 10am
- House Oversight subcommittee holds hearing on IRS. 11am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Sales of previously owned U.S. homes probably increased in March, economists est.
- Spain and France sell debt as yields increase
- GSK makes unsolicited offer for Human Genome for $13-shr cash
- Johnson & Johnson win European approval to buy Synthes for ~$21b
- Ford Motor to build $760m assembly plant in China to double Chinese output to 1.2m vehicles
- Research in Motion said near a choice to pick strategy adviser; JPMorgan the leading candidate
- Southern Co.’s plans to build 2 nuclear plants in Georgia may be blocked by opponents
- Sony-led group will win EU approval for its $2.2b purchase of EMI’s publishing unit today, FT reports
- Cable & Wireless plunges after Tata pulls offer; Vodafone has deadline today to make firm bid
- Ackman’s Pershing Square plans IPO of new fund for Jan. 2013, FT says
- MF Global trustee seeks $700m through lawsuit in U.K.
EARNINGS:
- BB&T (BBT) 6 a.m., $0.58
- Dupont (DD) 6 a.m., $1.53
- Danaher (DHR) 6 a.m., $0.71
- Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) 6 a.m., $0.99
- UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 6 a.m., $1.18
- Nokia (NOK) 6 a.m.
- Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) 6:30 a.m., $0.36
- Keycorp (KEY) 6:30 a.m., $0.19
- EMC (EMC) 6:45 a.m., $0.36
- Laboratory of America Holdings (LH) 6:45 a.m., $1.67
- Philip Morris International (PM) 6:59 a.m., $1.19
- Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) 7 a.m., $(0.05)
- Bank of America (BAC) 7 a.m., $0.12
- Baxter International (BAX) 7 a.m., $1.00
- Boston Scientific (BSX) 7 a.m., $0.08
- First Horizon National (FHN) 7 a.m., $0.13
- Travelers Cos /The (TRV) 7 a.m., $1.52
- People’s United Financial (PBCT) 7 a.m., $0.18
- Morgan Stanley (MS) 7:15 a.m., $0.44
- Alliance Data Systems (ADS) 7:30 a.m., $2.19
- Rockwell Collins (COL) 7:30 a.m., $1.09
- Verizon Communications (VZ) 7:30 a.m., $0.58
- Fairchild Semiconductor International (FCS) 7:30 a.m., $0.04
- First Niagara Financial Group (FNFG) 7:30 a.m., $0.19
- Peabody Energy (BTU) 8 a.m., $0.56
- Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) 8 a.m., $0.87
- Sherwin-Williams (SHW) 8 a.m., $0.94
- Union Pacific (UNP) 8 a.m., $1.63
- Cypress Semiconductor (CY) 8 a.m., $0.09
- PPG Industries (PPG) 8:11 a.m., $1.78
- Blackstone Group (BX) 8:30 a.m., $0.40
- New York Times (NYT) 8:30 a.m., $0.02
- Genuine Parts Co (GPC) 8:44 a.m., $0.87
- Nucor (NUE) 9 a.m., $0.39
- Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) 4 p.m., $1.93
- NCR (NCR) 4 p.m., $0.38
- Freescale Semiconductor (FSL) 4 p.m., $(0.06)
- Chubb (CB) 4:01 p.m., $1.52
- Hanesbrands (HBI) 4:01 p.m., $(0.33)
- Capital One Financial (COF) 4:05 p.m., $1.39
- E*TRADE Financial (ETFC) 4:05 p.m., $0.09
- SanDisk (SNDK) 4:05 p.m., $0.67
- Riverbed Technology (RVBD) 4:05 p.m., $0.20
- Tempur-Pedic International (TPX) 4:05 p.m., $0.84
- Microsoft (MSFT) 4:06 p.m., $0.58
- Altera (ALTR) 4:15 p.m., $0.36
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 4:15 p.m., $0.09
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COPPER – no bid this morning – 10yr yields remain below our key TREND line of 2.04% resistance too. Therefore, if you see the pop on the open, and we don’t see a close > 1394 (our immediate-term TRADE line of SP500 resistance), sell.
- Record Gold Seen by Top Analysts as Funds Retreat: Commodities
- Gold May Fall as Slowdown in Europe Curbs Demand From Investors
- Brent Oil Rises as Europe Recovery Hopes Beat U.S. Supply Growth
- Copper May Advance on Indications U.S. Economy Is Recovering
- Lynas Counts Costs as World’s Largest Rare-Earths Plant Held Up
- Corn Climbs Most in More Than Two Weeks as U.S. May Switch Acres
- U.K. Joins Spain in Worst Drought for Decades as Crops Emerge
- Sugar Seen Plunging 22% on Increasing Brazil, India Supplies
- Israel-Cyprus Deal on Gas as Lebanon Refuses Negotiation: Energy
- India to Export Sugar for Third Year as Farmers Plant More
- Anglo Platinum Output Falls on Maintenance; Stoppages Drop
- Saudis Retake Lead in U.S. Gulf Oil Imports: Chart of the Day
- Rubber Declines as Spanish Bad Loans Raise Economic Concerns
- Gold Seen at Record as Hedge Funds Retreat
- Cocoa Declines on Speculation Producers Will Sell; Sugar Rises
- Reliance Halt Boosting Diesel as Demand Climbs: Energy Markets
- Friedland Loses in Rio Mongolian ‘Chess Game’: Corporate Canada
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
SPAIN – evidently everyone’s a bearish expert again with Spain down -13% YTD; bear markets bounce obviously after -19% drawdowns (that’s where the IBEX was pre this bond auction, which came in at higher yields vs last – but being spun by whoever as “better” than “expected” – thank goodness broken sources routinely expect the wrong thing at the wrong time).
ASIAN MARKETS
JAPAN – both Currency and Equities going down now at the same time (this is when it gets more real on the sovereign debt concern front – at least it has in every other major sovereign debt crisis – currency leads). Nikkei down -1.1% last night (down for 10 of last 12 days).
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team