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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 19, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 16 points or -0.52% downside to 1378 and 0.64% upside to 1394. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/18 NYSE -1015
    • Down from the prior day’s trading of 1632
  • VOLUME: on 4/18 NYSE 720.97
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 1.58%
  • VIX:  as of 4/18 was at 18.64
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 0.98%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -20.34%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/18 closed at 2.74
    • Increase from the day prior at 1.41 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 40
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.07%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.99
    • Up from prior day’s trading of 1.98
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.72
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.71 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Jobless Claims, est. 370k (prior 380k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
  • 10am: Philadelphia Fed, April, est. 12.0 (prior 12.5)
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, March, est. 4.62m (prior 4.59m)
  • 10am: Leading Indicators, March, est. 0.2 (prior 0.7%)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac 30-yr mortgage
  • 10:30am: EIA natural gas
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $16b 5-yr TIPS 

GOVERNMENT:

  • IMF, World Bank spring meetings continue
  • Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner attends G-20 meeting of finance ministers, central bank governors at IMF to discuss global recovery, policies to ensure stability in Europe
  • G-20 economic, trade ministers meet in Mexico
  • House, Senate in session:
    • House Armed Services Committee hears from Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Joint Chiefs Chairman Martin Dempsey on security in Syria. 10am
    • House Oversight subcommittee holds hearing on IRS. 11am 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Sales of previously owned U.S. homes probably increased in March, economists est.
  • Spain and France sell debt as yields increase
  • GSK makes unsolicited offer for Human Genome for $13-shr cash
  • Johnson & Johnson win European approval to buy Synthes for ~$21b
  • Ford Motor to build $760m assembly plant in China to double Chinese output to 1.2m vehicles
  • Research in Motion said near a choice to pick strategy adviser; JPMorgan the leading candidate
  • Southern Co.’s plans to build 2 nuclear plants in Georgia may be blocked by opponents
  • Sony-led group will win EU approval for its $2.2b purchase of EMI’s publishing unit today, FT reports
  • Cable & Wireless plunges after Tata pulls offer; Vodafone has deadline today to make firm bid
  • Ackman’s Pershing Square plans IPO of new fund for Jan. 2013, FT says
  • MF Global trustee seeks $700m through lawsuit in U.K. 

EARNINGS:

    • BB&T (BBT) 6 a.m., $0.58
    • Dupont (DD) 6 a.m., $1.53
    • Danaher (DHR) 6 a.m., $0.71
    • Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) 6 a.m., $0.99
    • UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 6 a.m., $1.18
    • Nokia (NOK) 6 a.m.
    • Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) 6:30 a.m., $0.36
    • Keycorp (KEY) 6:30 a.m., $0.19
    • EMC (EMC) 6:45 a.m., $0.36
    • Laboratory of America Holdings (LH) 6:45 a.m., $1.67
    • Philip Morris International (PM) 6:59 a.m., $1.19
    • Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) 7 a.m., $(0.05)
    • Bank of America (BAC) 7 a.m., $0.12
    • Baxter International (BAX) 7 a.m., $1.00
    • Boston Scientific (BSX) 7 a.m., $0.08
    • First Horizon National (FHN) 7 a.m., $0.13
    • Travelers Cos /The (TRV) 7 a.m., $1.52
    • People’s United Financial (PBCT) 7 a.m., $0.18
    • Morgan Stanley (MS) 7:15 a.m., $0.44
    • Alliance Data Systems (ADS) 7:30 a.m., $2.19
    • Rockwell Collins (COL) 7:30 a.m., $1.09
    • Verizon Communications (VZ) 7:30 a.m., $0.58
    • Fairchild Semiconductor International (FCS) 7:30 a.m., $0.04
    • First Niagara Financial Group (FNFG) 7:30 a.m., $0.19
    • Peabody Energy (BTU) 8 a.m., $0.56
    • Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) 8 a.m., $0.87
    • Sherwin-Williams (SHW) 8 a.m., $0.94
    • Union Pacific (UNP) 8 a.m., $1.63
    • Cypress Semiconductor (CY) 8 a.m., $0.09
    • PPG Industries (PPG) 8:11 a.m., $1.78
    • Blackstone Group (BX) 8:30 a.m., $0.40
    • New York Times (NYT) 8:30 a.m., $0.02
    • Genuine Parts Co (GPC) 8:44 a.m., $0.87
    • Nucor (NUE) 9 a.m., $0.39
    • Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) 4 p.m., $1.93
    • NCR (NCR) 4 p.m., $0.38
    • Freescale Semiconductor (FSL) 4 p.m., $(0.06)
    • Chubb (CB) 4:01 p.m., $1.52
    • Hanesbrands (HBI) 4:01 p.m., $(0.33)
    • Capital One Financial (COF) 4:05 p.m., $1.39
    • E*TRADE Financial (ETFC) 4:05 p.m., $0.09
    • SanDisk (SNDK) 4:05 p.m., $0.67
    • Riverbed Technology (RVBD) 4:05 p.m., $0.20
    • Tempur-Pedic International (TPX) 4:05 p.m., $0.84
    • Microsoft (MSFT) 4:06 p.m., $0.58
    • Altera (ALTR) 4:15 p.m., $0.36
    • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 4:15 p.m., $0.09 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


COPPER – no bid this morning – 10yr yields remain below our key TREND line of 2.04% resistance too. Therefore, if you see the pop on the open, and we don’t see a close > 1394 (our immediate-term TRADE line of SP500 resistance), sell. 

  • Record Gold Seen by Top Analysts as Funds Retreat: Commodities
  • Gold May Fall as Slowdown in Europe Curbs Demand From Investors
  • Brent Oil Rises as Europe Recovery Hopes Beat U.S. Supply Growth
  • Copper May Advance on Indications U.S. Economy Is Recovering
  • Lynas Counts Costs as World’s Largest Rare-Earths Plant Held Up
  • Corn Climbs Most in More Than Two Weeks as U.S. May Switch Acres
  • U.K. Joins Spain in Worst Drought for Decades as Crops Emerge
  • Sugar Seen Plunging 22% on Increasing Brazil, India Supplies
  • Israel-Cyprus Deal on Gas as Lebanon Refuses Negotiation: Energy
  • India to Export Sugar for Third Year as Farmers Plant More
  • Anglo Platinum Output Falls on Maintenance; Stoppages Drop
  • Saudis Retake Lead in U.S. Gulf Oil Imports: Chart of the Day
  • Rubber Declines as Spanish Bad Loans Raise Economic Concerns
  • Gold Seen at Record as Hedge Funds Retreat
  • Cocoa Declines on Speculation Producers Will Sell; Sugar Rises
  • Reliance Halt Boosting Diesel as Demand Climbs: Energy Markets
  • Friedland Loses in Rio Mongolian ‘Chess Game’: Corporate Canada 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


SPAIN – evidently everyone’s a bearish expert again with Spain down -13% YTD; bear markets bounce obviously after -19% drawdowns (that’s where the IBEX was pre this bond auction, which came in at higher yields vs last – but being spun by whoever as “better” than “expected” – thank goodness broken sources routinely expect the wrong thing at the wrong time).

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – both Currency and Equities going down now at the same time (this is when it gets more real on the sovereign debt concern front – at least it has in every other major sovereign debt crisis – currency leads). Nikkei down -1.1% last night (down for 10 of last 12 days).

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team