TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 18, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 14 points or -0.78% downside to 1380 and 0.23% upside to 1394.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/17 NYSE 1632
- Up from the prior day’s trading of 411
- VOLUME: on 4/17 NYSE 709.77
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -3.50%
- VIX: as of 4/17 was at 18.46
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -5.58%
- Year-to-date decrease of -21.11%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/17 closed at 1.41
- Decrease from the day prior at 2.15
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.99
- Down from prior day’s trading of 2.00
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.71
- Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.73
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- IMF, World Bank holding annual spring meetings
- 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ending April 13
- 10:30am: DoE inventories
GOVERNMENT:
- President Obama discusses economy in speech at community college near Cleveland, 2:30pm
- Republican Jess Kelly won primary, will face former Gabrielle Giffords aide Ron Barber in June special election to replace the wounded ex-congresswoman
- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta attend NATO meeting in Brussels
- House, Senate in session:
- House Appropriations subcommittee marks up energy and water appropriations bill. 9:30am
- Senate Environment and Public Works Committee holds hearing on General Services Administration inspector general’s report, 10am
- House Foreign Affairs Committee holds hearing on North Korea, 10am
- House Homeland Security Committee marks up cyber security bill, 10am
- House Financial Services Committee marks up Affordable Housing and Self-Sufficiency Improvement Act, 10am
- House Homeland Security subcommittee holds hearing on trade and commerce with the Asia-Pacific region, 2pm
- House Foreign Affairs subcommittee holds hearing on terrorism, 2pm
- Senate Appropriations subcommittee holds hearing on the GSA inspector general’s report, 2:30pm
WHAT TO WATCH:
- North Korea broke off agreement to halt testing of nuclear devices and long-range missiles after U.S. canceled food aid
- Argentina rejects Repsol YPF’s demand for $10.5b in compensation after Argentina seized its YPF unit
- Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett yesterday said he had stage 1 prostate cancer; investors may focus on succession plans
- Alimentation Couche-Tard agrees to buy Statoil Fuel & Retail for $2.8b
- Intel, IBM both fell post market after reporting results; Yahoo gained
- Pfizer said to choose nutrition unit buyer as soon as next week after getting bids from Nestle, Danone
- U.S. Treasury officials said to lean toward recommending that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac be replaced with government safety net for mortgage finance system
- News Corp. to suspend some foreign investor voting rights to get in compliance with U.S. broadcast ownership rules
- ASML reiterated 2Q sales forecast, sees 3Q orders stable
- Tesco reports FY trading profit in-line with est., plans to cut capex
EARNINGS:
- Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) 5:55 a.m., $0.14
- Knight Capital Group (KCG) 6 a.m., $0.30
- Polaris Industries (PII) 6 a.m., $0.77
- Bank of New York Mellon (BK) 6:23 a.m., $0.52
- Textron (TXT) 6:30 a.m., $0.35
- BlackRock (BLK) 6:30 a.m., $3.04
- PNC Financial Services Group (PNC) 6:34 a.m., $1.48
- Quest Diagnostics (DGX) 6:45 a.m., $1.02
- Halliburton (HAL) 6:51 a.m., $0.85
- Dover (DOV) 7 a.m., $1.02
- Metro (MRU CN) 7 a.m., C$0.92
- Abbott Laboratories (ABT) 7:24 a.m., $1.00
- St Jude Medical (STJ) 7:30 a.m., $0.83
- New York Community Bank (NYB) 8 a.m., $0.26
- First Republic Bank (FRC) 8 a.m., $0.67 (GAAP est.)
- Qualcomm (QCOM) 4 p.m., $0.96
- American Express Co (AXP) 4 p.m., $1.01
- VMware (VMW) 4 p.m., $0.60
- Cubist Pharmaceuticals (CBST) 4 p.m., $0.43 (GAAP est.)
- Greenhill & Co (GHL) 4 p.m., $0.38
- Plexus (PLXS) 4 p.m., $0.54
- Covanta Holding (CVA) 4:01 p.m., $(0.08)
- Select Comfort (SCSS) 4:01 p.m., $0.40
- Wintrust Financial (WTFC) 4:01 p.m., $0.41
- Albemarle (ALB) 4:05 p.m., $1.16
- F5 Networks (FFIV) 4:05 p.m., $1.07
- Lam Research (LRCX) 4:05 p.m., $0.46
- LaSalle Hotel Properties (LHO) 4:05 p.m., $0.17 (FFO)
- Polycom (PLCM) 4:05 p.m., $0.22
- Platinum Underwriters Holdings (PTP) 4:05 p.m., $0.94
- Kinder Morgan /Delaware (KMI) 4:05 p.m., $0.31
- Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) 4:05 p.m., $0.65
- Yum! Brands (YUM) 4:09 p.m., $0.73
- eBay (EBAY) 4:15 p.m., $0.52
- Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) 4:20 p.m., $1.12
- SLM (SLM) 4:30 p.m., $0.52
- Umpqua Holdings (UMPQ) 4:30 p.m., $0.18
- Cohen & Steers (CNS) 4:30 p.m., $0.41
- Noble (NE) 4:33 p.m., $0.40
- Marriott International (MAR) 5 p.m., $0.29
- HNI (HNI) 5 p.m., $(0.00)
- Crown Holdings (CCK) 5:01 p.m., $0.44
- RLI (RLI) 6 p.m., $1.06
- Steel Dynamics (STLD) 6 p.m., $0.21
- CVB Financial (CVBF) Post-Mkt, $0.20
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COPPER – the Doctor is out. No bounce this morning in either Gold or Copper as Bernanke’s Bubbles continue to pop. Neither of these Commodities look like Nat Gas yet (crashing to $1.94 this morn), but both are in what we call Bearish Formations (bearish across all 3 risk management durations – TRADE/ TREND/TAIL).
- Brent Oil Drops on Concern Europe Debt Crisis Will Curb Demand
- Corn Drops for Fourth Straight Day on Planting; Soybeans Decline
- Copper Advances for Second Day as Chinese Demand May Improve
- Tyson Hurt by ‘Pink Slime’ as Peak Demand Nears: Commodities
- Sugar Advances as Lower Prices May Spur Demand; Cocoa Retreats
- Gold May Fall in London as Stronger Dollar Cuts Investor Demand
- Hindu Festival to Revive Indian Gold Demand After Shutdown
- Waning U.S. Food Inflation May Help Consumers: Chart of the Day
- Indonesia Readies Ban on Unprocessed Metal-Ore Shipments
- Exxon Inferior to Pipelines in Energy Investing: Riskless Return
- YPF Creditors Saved by Nationalization Clause: Argentina Credit
- Hurricane Season to Provide Little Gas Support: Energy Markets
- U.S. Feedlots Cut Cattle Purchases as Supply Drops, Survey Says
- Oil Near Two-Week High on Spanish Debt, IMF
- Silver-Inventory Surge Means Decline in Prices: Chart of the Day
- Mitsubishi Boosts Investment Threshold to 10%, Kobayashi Says
- India Said to Consider 1 Million Tons of Fresh Sugar Exports
CURRENCIES
US DOLLAR – hanging in here at its long-term TAIL of support ($76.13) like a champ. Despite all of the fiscal and monetary planning disasters in the US, that’s impressive – and that’s mainly because trading USD in the middle of a Global Currency War is relative (France could vote for a Socialist and Japan is on the fiscal brink).
EUROPEAN MARKETS
SPAIN – do up your chinstraps because Spain is officially moving back into crash mode (down -19.4% from its YTD high in Feb where a lot in Global Macro stopped going up – gravity + #GrowthSlowing = nasty combo). Remember, the Germans are on the record saying Spain and Italy are potentially “Too Big To Save”… potentially…
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team