THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 18, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 14 points or -0.78% downside to 1380 and 0.23% upside to 1394. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/17 NYSE 1632
    • Up from the prior day’s trading of 411
  • VOLUME: on 4/17 NYSE 709.77
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -3.50%
  • VIX:  as of 4/17 was at 18.46
    • Decrease  versus most recent day’s trading of -5.58%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -21.11%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/17 closed at 1.41
    • Decrease from the day prior at 2.15 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.99
    • Down from prior day’s trading of 2.00
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.71
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.73 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • IMF, World Bank holding annual spring meetings
  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ending April 13
  • 10:30am: DoE inventories 

GOVERNMENT:

  • President Obama discusses economy in speech at community college near Cleveland, 2:30pm
  • Republican Jess Kelly won primary, will face former Gabrielle Giffords aide Ron Barber in June special election to replace the wounded ex-congresswoman
  • Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta attend NATO meeting in Brussels
  • House, Senate in session:
    • House Appropriations subcommittee marks up energy and water appropriations bill. 9:30am
    • Senate Environment and Public Works Committee holds hearing on General Services Administration inspector general’s report, 10am
    • House Foreign Affairs Committee holds hearing on North Korea, 10am
    • House Homeland Security Committee marks up cyber security bill, 10am
    • House Financial Services Committee marks up Affordable Housing and Self-Sufficiency Improvement Act, 10am
    • House Homeland Security subcommittee holds hearing on trade and commerce with the Asia-Pacific region, 2pm
    • House Foreign Affairs subcommittee holds hearing on terrorism, 2pm
    • Senate Appropriations subcommittee holds hearing on the GSA inspector general’s report, 2:30pm 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • North Korea broke off agreement to halt testing of nuclear devices and long-range missiles after U.S. canceled food aid
  • Argentina rejects Repsol YPF’s demand for $10.5b in compensation after Argentina seized its YPF unit
  • Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett yesterday said he had stage 1 prostate cancer; investors may focus on succession plans
  • Alimentation Couche-Tard agrees to buy Statoil Fuel & Retail for $2.8b
  • Intel, IBM both fell post market after reporting results; Yahoo gained
  • Pfizer said to choose nutrition unit buyer as soon as next week after getting bids from Nestle, Danone
  • U.S. Treasury officials said to lean toward recommending that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac be replaced with government safety net for mortgage finance system
  • News Corp. to suspend some foreign investor voting rights to get in compliance with U.S. broadcast ownership rules
  • ASML reiterated 2Q sales forecast, sees 3Q orders stable
  • Tesco reports FY trading profit in-line with est., plans to cut capex 

EARNINGS:

    • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) 5:55 a.m., $0.14
    • Knight Capital Group (KCG) 6 a.m., $0.30
    • Polaris Industries (PII) 6 a.m., $0.77
    • Bank of New York Mellon (BK) 6:23 a.m., $0.52
    • Textron (TXT) 6:30 a.m., $0.35
    • BlackRock (BLK) 6:30 a.m., $3.04
    • PNC Financial Services Group (PNC) 6:34 a.m., $1.48
    • Quest Diagnostics (DGX) 6:45 a.m., $1.02
    • Halliburton (HAL) 6:51 a.m., $0.85
    • Dover (DOV) 7 a.m., $1.02
    • Metro (MRU CN) 7 a.m., C$0.92
    • Abbott Laboratories (ABT) 7:24 a.m., $1.00
    • St Jude Medical (STJ) 7:30 a.m., $0.83
    • New York Community Bank (NYB) 8 a.m., $0.26
    • First Republic Bank (FRC) 8 a.m., $0.67 (GAAP est.)
    • Qualcomm (QCOM) 4 p.m., $0.96
    • American Express Co (AXP) 4 p.m., $1.01
    • VMware (VMW) 4 p.m., $0.60
    • Cubist Pharmaceuticals (CBST) 4 p.m., $0.43 (GAAP est.)
    • Greenhill & Co (GHL) 4 p.m., $0.38
    • Plexus (PLXS) 4 p.m., $0.54
    • Covanta Holding (CVA) 4:01 p.m., $(0.08)
    • Select Comfort (SCSS) 4:01 p.m., $0.40
    • Wintrust Financial (WTFC) 4:01 p.m., $0.41
    • Albemarle (ALB) 4:05 p.m., $1.16
    • F5 Networks (FFIV) 4:05 p.m., $1.07
    • Lam Research (LRCX) 4:05 p.m., $0.46
    • LaSalle Hotel Properties (LHO) 4:05 p.m., $0.17 (FFO)
    • Polycom (PLCM) 4:05 p.m., $0.22
    • Platinum Underwriters Holdings (PTP) 4:05 p.m., $0.94
    • Kinder Morgan /Delaware (KMI) 4:05 p.m., $0.31
    • Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) 4:05 p.m., $0.65
    • Yum! Brands (YUM) 4:09 p.m., $0.73
    • eBay (EBAY) 4:15 p.m., $0.52
    • Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) 4:20 p.m., $1.12
    • SLM (SLM) 4:30 p.m., $0.52
    • Umpqua Holdings (UMPQ) 4:30 p.m., $0.18
    • Cohen & Steers (CNS) 4:30 p.m., $0.41
    • Noble (NE) 4:33 p.m., $0.40
    • Marriott International (MAR) 5 p.m., $0.29
    • HNI (HNI) 5 p.m., $(0.00)
    • Crown Holdings (CCK) 5:01 p.m., $0.44
    • RLI (RLI) 6 p.m., $1.06
    • Steel Dynamics (STLD) 6 p.m., $0.21
    • CVB Financial (CVBF) Post-Mkt, $0.20 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


COPPER – the Doctor is out. No bounce this morning in either Gold or Copper as Bernanke’s Bubbles continue to pop. Neither of these Commodities look like Nat Gas yet (crashing to $1.94 this morn), but both are in what we call Bearish Formations (bearish across all 3 risk management durations – TRADE/ TREND/TAIL). 

  • Brent Oil Drops on Concern Europe Debt Crisis Will Curb Demand
  • Corn Drops for Fourth Straight Day on Planting; Soybeans Decline
  • Copper Advances for Second Day as Chinese Demand May Improve
  • Tyson Hurt by ‘Pink Slime’ as Peak Demand Nears: Commodities
  • Sugar Advances as Lower Prices May Spur Demand; Cocoa Retreats
  • Gold May Fall in London as Stronger Dollar Cuts Investor Demand
  • Hindu Festival to Revive Indian Gold Demand After Shutdown
  • Waning U.S. Food Inflation May Help Consumers: Chart of the Day
  • Indonesia Readies Ban on Unprocessed Metal-Ore Shipments
  • Exxon Inferior to Pipelines in Energy Investing: Riskless Return
  • YPF Creditors Saved by Nationalization Clause: Argentina Credit
  • Hurricane Season to Provide Little Gas Support: Energy Markets
  • U.S. Feedlots Cut Cattle Purchases as Supply Drops, Survey Says
  • Oil Near Two-Week High on Spanish Debt, IMF
  • Silver-Inventory Surge Means Decline in Prices: Chart of the Day
  • Mitsubishi Boosts Investment Threshold to 10%, Kobayashi Says
  • India Said to Consider 1 Million Tons of Fresh Sugar Exports 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES


US DOLLAR – hanging in here at its long-term TAIL of support ($76.13) like a champ. Despite all of the fiscal and monetary planning disasters in the US, that’s impressive – and that’s mainly because trading USD in the middle of a Global Currency War is relative (France could vote for a Socialist and Japan is on the fiscal brink).

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


SPAIN – do up your chinstraps because Spain is officially moving back into crash mode (down -19.4% from its YTD high in Feb where a lot in Global Macro stopped going up – gravity + #GrowthSlowing = nasty combo). Remember, the Germans are on the record saying Spain and Italy are potentially “Too Big To Save”… potentially…

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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