TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 17, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 34 points or -1.50% downside to 1349 and 0.98% upside to 1383.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/16 NYSE 411
- Up from the prior day’s trading of -1577
- VOLUME: on 4/16 NYSE 735.51
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -4.60%
- VIX: as of 4/16 was at 19.55
- Unchanged versus most recent day’s trading
- Year-to-date decrease of -16.45%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/16 closed at 2.15
- Increase from the day prior at 1.98
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 2.01
- Up from prior day’s trading of 1.98
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.73
- Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.71
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7am: ECB President Mario Draghi delivers introductory speech at the Sixth ECB Statistics Conference
- 8:30am: Housing Starts, March, est. up 1% M/m to 705k (prior 698k)
- 8:30am: Building Permits, March, est. 710k (prior revised 715k)
- 9am: Bank of Canada interest rates
- 9:15am: Industrial Production, March, est. 0.3% (prior 0.0%)
- 9:15am: Capacity Util., March, est. 78.5% (prior revised 78.4%)
- 11:30am: Treasury selling $30b 4-week bills
GOVERNMENT:
- IMF, World Bank holds first day of annual spring meetings
- IMF releases World Economic Outlook and Fiscal Monitor, 9am
- CFTC Dodd-Frank rules for swap dealers take effect
- Deadline for EPA to release rules for air pollution from oil, gas drilling, primarily affecting fracking
- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton attends U.S.-Brazil Global Partnership dialogue in Brasilia
- Arizona primary for Gabrielle Giffords’s Congressional seat
- House, Senate in session:
- House Transportation subcommittee holds hearing on GSA waste of taxpayers’ money, 8:30am
- Senate Banking Committee holds hearing on Export-Import Bank reauthorization, 10am
- House Ways and Means Committee holds hearing on tax incentives for retirement accounts, 10am
- House Energy subcommittee marks up Gasoline Regulation Act and Strategic Energy Production Act
- House Oversight subcommittee holds hearing on the Securities and Exchange Commission and cost-benefit analysis, 10am
- Senate Homeland Security Committee subcommittee holds hearing on Contingency Contracting Reform Act of 2012, 10:30am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Goldman Sachs releases 1Q results; watch trading, investing rev.
- Spain pledged to take “decisive” action against Argentina within days, after Argentinian President seized YPF, the oil company majority-owned by Repsol
- Home starts may have increased 1.0% to a 705k annual rate in March, economists est., as housing demand stabilized
- RIM said to be in talks to hire financial adviser to help weigh strategic options
- Toshiba agrees to buy IBM’s point-of-sale terminal business for $850m
- Japan said it will provide $60b to IMF’s effort to expand its resources
- Audi said poised to purchase motorcycle-maker Ducati for $1.1b
- Citigroup hosts annual meeting
- Zynga plans to step up pace of acquisitions in search for new ‘FarmVille’
- Rio Tinto 1Q mined copper output misses analyst ests.
- Fiat, Renault and Peugeot Citroen lead European car sales to 14-year low as economy stalls
- Zayo/AboveNet go-shop ends today
EARNINGS:
- Comerica (CMA) 6:40 a.m., $0.56
- US Bancorp (USB) 6:45 a.m., $0.64
- Omnicom Group (OMC) 7 a.m., $0.69
- State Street (STT) 7:06 a.m., $0.87
- Northern Trust (NTRS) 7:14 a.m., $0.65
- TD Ameritrade Holding (AMTD) 7:30 a.m., $0.26
- Coca-Cola (KO) 7:30 a.m., $0.87
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 7:45 a.m., $1.36
- Forest Laboratories (FRX) 8 a.m., $0.70
- Goldman Sachs (GS) 8 a.m., $3.55
- WW Grainger (GWW) 8 a.m., $2.52
- McMoRan Exploration Co (MMR) 8 a.m., $(0.12)
- USG (USG) 8:29 a.m., $(0.42)
- Cree (CREE) 4 p.m., $0.21
- Stryker (SYK) 4 p.m., $0.99
- CSX (CSX) 4:01 p.m., $0.38
- Seagate Technology (STX) 4:01 p.m., $2.12
- International Business Machines (IBM) 4:03 p.m., $2.66
- Intel (INTC) 4:05 p.m., $0.51
- Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4:05 p.m., $3.12
- Yahoo! (YHOO) 4:05 p.m., $0.18
- United Rentals (URI) 4:15 p.m., $0.05
- Webster Financial (WBS) 4:15 p.m., $0.40
- Cathay General Bancorp (CATY) 4:30 p.m., $0.30
- Fulton Financial (FULT) 4:30 p.m., $0.19
- East West Bancorp (EWBC) 4:45 p.m., $0.43
- Linear Technology (LLTC) 5 p.m., $0.42
- Packaging of America (PKG) 5 p.m., $0.40
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COPPER – we continue to see Bernanke’s Bubbles in commodities popping. On the commodities bounce this morning, Copper is down again and remains in a bearish formation alongside 10yr UST yields < 2.03% at 1.99% last.
- Drought Draining Stocks of Oils Amid Record Demand: Commodities
- Oil Rises to Two-Day High on Spain Debt Auction, Retail Sales
- March Gold Sales Drop as Stability Returns, Perth Mint Says
- China May Become Top Corn Importer by 2014, Displacing Japan
- Soybeans Rise on Signs of Increasing Chinese Demand; Wheat Gains
- Gold May Gain in London as Euro-Area Debt Crisis Spurs Demand
- Copper Pares Declines in London, Gains 0.3% to $8,004 a Ton
- Shanghai Futures Exchange Announces Silver Contract Draft Plan
- Rubber in Tokyo Drops as Slower Growth in China Weakens Demand
- Rio Tinto First-Quarter Iron Ore Output Misses Estimates
- U.K. Reliance on Norwegian Gas Boosts Volatility: Energy Markets
- Ghana Signs $1 Billion Loan With China for Natural Gas Project
- Freeport Takeover Talk Intensifies With Low Valuation: Real M&A
- Drought Pushes Edible Oils Demand Higher
- Soybean Imports by China Seen Topping USDA Estimate on Crush
- LME Studying Including Chinese Yuan for Settlement, Clearing
- Palm Oil May Advance as Rainfall in Malaysia Disrupts Harvests
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
SPAIN – you learn the most about bear markets on the bounces – this morning’s in Spanish Equities on no-volume tells you all you need to know as people keep focusing on last year’s game (bond auction yields); it’s now all about the economic gravity of the situation and the IBEX needs to close > 7585 to recapture its 1st line of support. France and Italy don’t look much better.
ASIAN MARKETS
JAPAN – the Nikkei was down for the 9th of the last 10 trading sessions last night, taking its correction from the March YTD top to -7.7%; Asian equities were generally weak with the exception of India who reverted to the broken playbook, cutting rates.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team