THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 17, 2012

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 34 points or -1.50% downside to 1349 and 0.98% upside to 1383. 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

• ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/16 NYSE 411
  • Up from the prior day’s trading of -1577
• VOLUME: on 4/16 NYSE 735.51
  • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -4.60%
• VIX:  as of 4/16 was at 19.55
  • Unchanged  versus most recent day’s trading
  • Year-to-date decrease of -16.45%
• SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/16 closed at 2.15
  • Increase from the day prior at 1.98 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

• TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
• 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
• 10-Year: as of this morning 2.01
• Up from prior day’s trading of 1.98
• YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.73
• Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.71 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

• 7am: ECB President Mario Draghi delivers introductory speech at the Sixth ECB Statistics Conference
• 8:30am: Housing Starts, March, est. up 1% M/m to 705k (prior 698k)
• 8:30am: Building Permits, March, est. 710k (prior revised 715k)
• 9am: Bank of Canada interest rates
• 9:15am: Industrial Production, March, est. 0.3% (prior 0.0%)
• 9:15am: Capacity Util., March, est. 78.5% (prior revised 78.4%)
• 11:30am: Treasury selling $30b 4-week bills 

GOVERNMENT:

• IMF, World Bank holds first day of annual spring meetings
• IMF releases World Economic Outlook and Fiscal Monitor, 9am
• CFTC Dodd-Frank rules for swap dealers take effect
• Deadline for EPA to release rules for air pollution from oil, gas drilling, primarily affecting fracking
• Secretary of State Hillary Clinton attends U.S.-Brazil Global Partnership dialogue in Brasilia
• Arizona primary for Gabrielle Giffords’s Congressional seat
• House, Senate in session:
  • House Transportation subcommittee holds hearing on GSA waste of taxpayers’ money, 8:30am
  • Senate Banking Committee holds hearing on Export-Import Bank reauthorization, 10am
  • House Ways and Means Committee holds hearing on tax incentives for retirement accounts, 10am
  • House Energy subcommittee marks up Gasoline Regulation Act and Strategic Energy Production Act
  • House Oversight subcommittee holds hearing on the Securities and Exchange Commission and cost-benefit analysis, 10am
  • Senate Homeland Security Committee subcommittee holds hearing on Contingency Contracting Reform Act of 2012, 10:30am   

WHAT TO WATCH:

• Goldman Sachs releases 1Q results; watch trading, investing rev.
• Spain pledged to take “decisive” action against Argentina within days, after Argentinian President seized YPF, the oil company majority-owned by Repsol
• Home starts may have increased 1.0% to a 705k annual rate in March, economists est., as housing demand stabilized
• RIM said to be in talks to hire financial adviser to help weigh strategic options
• Toshiba agrees to buy IBM’s point-of-sale terminal business for $850m
• Japan said it will provide $60b to IMF’s effort to expand its resources
• Audi said poised to purchase motorcycle-maker Ducati for $1.1b
• Citigroup hosts annual meeting
• Zynga plans to step up pace of acquisitions in search for new ‘FarmVille’
• Rio Tinto 1Q mined copper output misses analyst ests.
• Fiat, Renault and Peugeot Citroen lead European car sales to 14-year low as economy stalls
• Zayo/AboveNet go-shop ends today 

EARNINGS:

• Comerica (CMA) 6:40 a.m., $0.56
• US Bancorp (USB) 6:45 a.m., $0.64
• Omnicom Group (OMC) 7 a.m., $0.69
• State Street (STT) 7:06 a.m., $0.87
• Northern Trust (NTRS) 7:14 a.m., $0.65
• TD Ameritrade Holding (AMTD) 7:30 a.m., $0.26
• Coca-Cola (KO) 7:30 a.m., $0.87
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 7:45 a.m., $1.36
• Forest Laboratories (FRX) 8 a.m., $0.70
• Goldman Sachs (GS) 8 a.m., $3.55
• WW Grainger (GWW) 8 a.m., $2.52
• McMoRan Exploration Co (MMR) 8 a.m., $(0.12)
• USG (USG) 8:29 a.m., $(0.42)
• Cree (CREE) 4 p.m., $0.21
• Stryker (SYK) 4 p.m., $0.99
• CSX (CSX) 4:01 p.m., $0.38
• Seagate Technology (STX) 4:01 p.m., $2.12
• International Business Machines (IBM) 4:03 p.m., $2.66
• Intel (INTC) 4:05 p.m., $0.51
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4:05 p.m., $3.12
• Yahoo! (YHOO) 4:05 p.m., $0.18
• United Rentals (URI) 4:15 p.m., $0.05
• Webster Financial (WBS) 4:15 p.m., $0.40
• Cathay General Bancorp (CATY) 4:30 p.m., $0.30
• Fulton Financial (FULT) 4:30 p.m., $0.19
• East West Bancorp (EWBC) 4:45 p.m., $0.43
• Linear Technology (LLTC) 5 p.m., $0.42
• Packaging of America (PKG) 5 p.m., $0.40 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

COPPER – we continue to see Bernanke’s Bubbles in commodities popping. On the commodities bounce this morning, Copper is down again and remains in a bearish formation alongside 10yr UST yields < 2.03% at 1.99% last. 

• Drought Draining Stocks of Oils Amid Record Demand: Commodities
• Oil Rises to Two-Day High on Spain Debt Auction, Retail Sales
• March Gold Sales Drop as Stability Returns, Perth Mint Says
• China May Become Top Corn Importer by 2014, Displacing Japan
• Soybeans Rise on Signs of Increasing Chinese Demand; Wheat Gains
• Gold May Gain in London as Euro-Area Debt Crisis Spurs Demand
• Copper Pares Declines in London, Gains 0.3% to $8,004 a Ton
• Shanghai Futures Exchange Announces Silver Contract Draft Plan
• Rubber in Tokyo Drops as Slower Growth in China Weakens Demand
• Rio Tinto First-Quarter Iron Ore Output Misses Estimates
• U.K. Reliance on Norwegian Gas Boosts Volatility: Energy Markets
• Ghana Signs $1 Billion Loan With China for Natural Gas Project
• Freeport Takeover Talk Intensifies With Low Valuation: Real M&A
• Drought Pushes Edible Oils Demand Higher
• Soybean Imports by China Seen Topping USDA Estimate on Crush
• LME Studying Including Chinese Yuan for Settlement, Clearing
• Palm Oil May Advance as Rainfall in Malaysia Disrupts Harvests 

CURRENCIES

EUROPEAN MARKETS

SPAIN – you learn the most about bear markets on the bounces – this morning’s in Spanish Equities on no-volume tells you all you need to know as people keep focusing on last year’s game (bond auction yields); it’s now all about the economic gravity of the situation and the IBEX needs to close > 7585 to recapture its 1st line of support. France and Italy don’t look much better.

ASIAN MARKETS

JAPAN – the Nikkei was down for the 9th of the last 10 trading sessions last night, taking its correction from the March YTD top to -7.7%; Asian equities were generally weak with the exception of India who reverted to the broken playbook, cutting rates.

MIDDLE EAST

The Hedgeye Macro Team