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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 17, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 34 points or -1.50% downside to 1349 and 0.98% upside to 1383. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/16 NYSE 411
    • Up from the prior day’s trading of -1577
  • VOLUME: on 4/16 NYSE 735.51
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -4.60%
  • VIX:  as of 4/16 was at 19.55
    • Unchanged  versus most recent day’s trading
    • Year-to-date decrease of -16.45%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/16 closed at 2.15
    • Increase from the day prior at 1.98 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 2.01
    • Up from prior day’s trading of 1.98
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.73
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.71 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: ECB President Mario Draghi delivers introductory speech at the Sixth ECB Statistics Conference
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, March, est. up 1% M/m to 705k (prior 698k)
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, March, est. 710k (prior revised 715k)
  • 9am: Bank of Canada interest rates
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production, March, est. 0.3% (prior 0.0%)
  • 9:15am: Capacity Util., March, est. 78.5% (prior revised 78.4%)
  • 11:30am: Treasury selling $30b 4-week bills 

GOVERNMENT:

  • IMF, World Bank holds first day of annual spring meetings
  • IMF releases World Economic Outlook and Fiscal Monitor, 9am
  • CFTC Dodd-Frank rules for swap dealers take effect
  • Deadline for EPA to release rules for air pollution from oil, gas drilling, primarily affecting fracking
  • Secretary of State Hillary Clinton attends U.S.-Brazil Global Partnership dialogue in Brasilia
  • Arizona primary for Gabrielle Giffords’s Congressional seat
  • House, Senate in session:
    • House Transportation subcommittee holds hearing on GSA waste of taxpayers’ money, 8:30am
    • Senate Banking Committee holds hearing on Export-Import Bank reauthorization, 10am
    • House Ways and Means Committee holds hearing on tax incentives for retirement accounts, 10am
    • House Energy subcommittee marks up Gasoline Regulation Act and Strategic Energy Production Act
    • House Oversight subcommittee holds hearing on the Securities and Exchange Commission and cost-benefit analysis, 10am
    • Senate Homeland Security Committee subcommittee holds hearing on Contingency Contracting Reform Act of 2012, 10:30am   

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Goldman Sachs releases 1Q results; watch trading, investing rev.
  • Spain pledged to take “decisive” action against Argentina within days, after Argentinian President seized YPF, the oil company majority-owned by Repsol
  • Home starts may have increased 1.0% to a 705k annual rate in March, economists est., as housing demand stabilized
  • RIM said to be in talks to hire financial adviser to help weigh strategic options
  • Toshiba agrees to buy IBM’s point-of-sale terminal business for $850m
  • Japan said it will provide $60b to IMF’s effort to expand its resources
  • Audi said poised to purchase motorcycle-maker Ducati for $1.1b
  • Citigroup hosts annual meeting
  • Zynga plans to step up pace of acquisitions in search for new ‘FarmVille’
  • Rio Tinto 1Q mined copper output misses analyst ests.
  • Fiat, Renault and Peugeot Citroen lead European car sales to 14-year low as economy stalls
  • Zayo/AboveNet go-shop ends today 

EARNINGS:

    • Comerica (CMA) 6:40 a.m., $0.56
    • US Bancorp (USB) 6:45 a.m., $0.64
    • Omnicom Group (OMC) 7 a.m., $0.69
    • State Street (STT) 7:06 a.m., $0.87
    • Northern Trust (NTRS) 7:14 a.m., $0.65
    • TD Ameritrade Holding (AMTD) 7:30 a.m., $0.26
    • Coca-Cola (KO) 7:30 a.m., $0.87
    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 7:45 a.m., $1.36
    • Forest Laboratories (FRX) 8 a.m., $0.70
    • Goldman Sachs (GS) 8 a.m., $3.55
    • WW Grainger (GWW) 8 a.m., $2.52
    • McMoRan Exploration Co (MMR) 8 a.m., $(0.12)
    • USG (USG) 8:29 a.m., $(0.42)
    • Cree (CREE) 4 p.m., $0.21
    • Stryker (SYK) 4 p.m., $0.99
    • CSX (CSX) 4:01 p.m., $0.38
    • Seagate Technology (STX) 4:01 p.m., $2.12
    • International Business Machines (IBM) 4:03 p.m., $2.66
    • Intel (INTC) 4:05 p.m., $0.51
    • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4:05 p.m., $3.12
    • Yahoo! (YHOO) 4:05 p.m., $0.18
    • United Rentals (URI) 4:15 p.m., $0.05
    • Webster Financial (WBS) 4:15 p.m., $0.40
    • Cathay General Bancorp (CATY) 4:30 p.m., $0.30
    • Fulton Financial (FULT) 4:30 p.m., $0.19
    • East West Bancorp (EWBC) 4:45 p.m., $0.43
    • Linear Technology (LLTC) 5 p.m., $0.42
    • Packaging of America (PKG) 5 p.m., $0.40 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


COPPER – we continue to see Bernanke’s Bubbles in commodities popping. On the commodities bounce this morning, Copper is down again and remains in a bearish formation alongside 10yr UST yields < 2.03% at 1.99% last. 

  • Drought Draining Stocks of Oils Amid Record Demand: Commodities
  • Oil Rises to Two-Day High on Spain Debt Auction, Retail Sales
  • March Gold Sales Drop as Stability Returns, Perth Mint Says
  • China May Become Top Corn Importer by 2014, Displacing Japan
  • Soybeans Rise on Signs of Increasing Chinese Demand; Wheat Gains
  • Gold May Gain in London as Euro-Area Debt Crisis Spurs Demand
  • Copper Pares Declines in London, Gains 0.3% to $8,004 a Ton
  • Shanghai Futures Exchange Announces Silver Contract Draft Plan
  • Rubber in Tokyo Drops as Slower Growth in China Weakens Demand
  • Rio Tinto First-Quarter Iron Ore Output Misses Estimates
  • U.K. Reliance on Norwegian Gas Boosts Volatility: Energy Markets
  • Ghana Signs $1 Billion Loan With China for Natural Gas Project
  • Freeport Takeover Talk Intensifies With Low Valuation: Real M&A
  • Drought Pushes Edible Oils Demand Higher
  • Soybean Imports by China Seen Topping USDA Estimate on Crush
  • LME Studying Including Chinese Yuan for Settlement, Clearing
  • Palm Oil May Advance as Rainfall in Malaysia Disrupts Harvests 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


SPAIN – you learn the most about bear markets on the bounces – this morning’s in Spanish Equities on no-volume tells you all you need to know as people keep focusing on last year’s game (bond auction yields); it’s now all about the economic gravity of the situation and the IBEX needs to close > 7585 to recapture its 1st line of support. France and Italy don’t look much better.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – the Nikkei was down for the 9th of the last 10 trading sessions last night, taking its correction from the March YTD top to -7.7%; Asian equities were generally weak with the exception of India who reverted to the broken playbook, cutting rates.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team