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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 16, 2012

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 39 points or -1.55% downside to 1349 and 1.29% upside to 1388. 












  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/13 NYSE -1577
    • Down from the prior day’s trading of 1933
  • VOLUME: on 4/13 NYSE 770.99
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 1.89%
  • VIX:  as of 4/13 was at 19.55
    • Increase  versus most recent day’s trading of 13.66%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -16.45%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/13 closed at 1.98
    • Decrease from the day prior at 2.11 


BOND YIELDS – 10yr UST yields snapping our intermediate-term TREND line of 2.03% last week is very bullish for Treasuries until it isn’t. This happened in conjunction with a spike in weekly jobless claims (380,000) = Growth Slowing. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.98
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading of 1.98
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.71
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.72 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: NOPA Monthly Oil, Soybean capacity
  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, April, est. 18.00 (prior 20.21)
  • 8:30am, Retail Sales, March, est. 0.3% (prior 1.1%)
  • 9am: TIC Flows, Feb., est. total net $30b (prior $18.8b)
  • 10am: Business Inventories, Feb., est. 0.6% (prior 0.7%)
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, April, est. 28 (prior 28)
  • 11:30am: Treasury selling $30b 3-mo., $28b 6-mo.
  • 12:30pm: Fed’s Pianalto speaks in Lexington, Kentucky on banking, economy
  • 3:30pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks at Utah State University on the economy and monetary policy 


    • President Obama says accusations against Secret Service agents need thorough investigation
    • Senate holds test vote on “Buffett Rule” tax proposal
    • Arizona primary for Gabrielle Giffords’s congressional seat
    • U.S. House Oversight Committee Chairman Darrell Issa, R- Calif., holds hearing about “wasteful spending” by GSA, 1:30pm
    • U.S. Congress returns from two-week Easter recess
    • Supreme Court in session


  • Retail sales may have gained 0.3% in March, economists est., indicating gasoline prices may have limited impact on spending
  • World Bank may select next president; U.S. nominee Jim Yong Kim favored after rival candidate Jose Antonio Ocampo withdrew
  • Goldman Sachs said to raise $2.5b selling ICBC shrs
  • Carlyle Group said seeking to raise up to $762.5m in IPO; prospectus may be filed as soon as today
  • China’s decision to double the scope of daily yuan moves may spur demand for renminbi bonds in Hong Kong
  • FCC seeks $25,000 fine from Google for not cooperating with probe into collection of personal data over wireless networks
  • Oracle, Google patent trial scheduled to begin today with jury selection; opening statements tomorrow
  • Hon Hai, Pegatron Get Apple iPad Mini Order, Commercial Times reports
  • Vestas Wind Systems jumped after a Danish newspaper reported two Chinese competitors are considering a possible bid
  • Anheuser-Busch InBev said to be nearing an agreement to gain control of Cerveceria Nacional Dominicana
  • GDF Suez agreed to buy 30% of International Power it doesn’t already own for $10b
  • Citigroup, JP Morgan, other banks release monthly credit- card data; Discover announced last week
  • IRS filing deadline for individual tax returns is Tuesday 


    • Mattel (MAT) 6 a.m., $0.07
    • M&T Bank (MTB) 7:51 a.m., $1.49
    • Citigroup (C) 8 a.m., $1.02
    • Gannett (GCI) 8:15 a.m., $0.31
    • Charles Schwab (SCHW) 8:45 a.m., $0.15
    • Lincare Holdings (LNCR) 4:30 p.m., $0.53
    • Brown & Brown (BRO) 4:54 p.m., $0.33
    • Equity Lifestyle Properties (ELS) 8 p.m., no est.



COMMODITIES – getting blasted ever since the US Dollar stopped going down (2wks ago); got interconnectedness? We call this Deflating The Inflation, or unwinding Bernanke’s Bubbles (commodity bubble – see our slide deck). Gold and Copper down hard this morning after failing at $1675 and $3.73 levels of support last week – both are in Bearish Formations (bearish on all 3 of our risk management durations). 

  • Speculators Cut Wagers Most in 2012 as Growth Slows: Commodities
  • Commodity ‘Super Cycle’ May Be Coming to End, Citigroup Says
  • Corn, Wheat Drop on Slower China Growth, European Debt Concerns
  • Oil Declines a Second Day in New York After Iran Nuclear Talks
  • Gold Declines in London as Stronger Dollar Cuts Investor Demand
  • Sugar Falls to Three-Month Low on Brazil’s Crop; Coffee Declines
  • Copper Trades Little Changed at $7,980 a Ton; Aluminum Climbs
  • Mongolia Starts Share Sale Process for State-Owned Coal Company
  • Copper May Gain 20% on China Industrial Demand: Chart of the Day
  • Funds Cut Bullish Gasoline Bets as Prices Slide: Energy Markets
  • Conoco Fattest U.S. Dividend Offers 4% Income Not Growth: Energy
  • U.S. Auto Rebound Fuels 14% Great Lakes Cargo Increase: Freight
  • Japanese Utilities Use Record LNG Last Year on Idle Reactors
  • Speculators Cut Bets Most in 2012 on China
  • Commodities Extend Drop on European Crisis, Slower Asian Growth
  • Copper May Fall to $7,448 a Ton on Fibonacci: Technical Analysis
  • China to Overtake U.S. as Biggest Tanker User: Chart of the Day 









EUROPE – the DAX is testing an intermediate-term TREND line breakdown of the 6614, so I’ll be watching that line closely as a barometer for what the correction in US stocks could look like (Germany’s jobs and fiscal situation is stronger than in the US); Spain and Italy look awful; we re-shorted France on Thursday as we think mean reversion there is to the downside.














The Hedgeye Macro Team




The Macau Metro Monitor, April 16, 2012




Macau Q1 gaming tables ended at 5,242, down 60 tables QoQ, while slot machines increased by 46 machines QoQ to 16,102.



New home sales in Singapore remained strong in March.  A total of 3,032 units of new homes were sold in March, of which 2,393 were private homes while the rest were made up of executive condominiums.  The 2,393 units of private homes sold last month were marginally lower than the 2,413 units transacted in February.


The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 16th of April through the 20th is full of critical releases and events. Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.



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Weekly European Monitor: Shorting France and Buying Bunds

European Positions Update: Short France (EWQ); Long German Bunds (BUNL); Sold Germany (EWG) on 4/12


Asset Class Performance:

  • Equities:  The STOXX Europe 600 finished down -2.2% week-over-week vs -1.6% last week. Bottom performers: Italy -5.8%; Spain -5.4%; Finland -4.9%; Hungary -4.6%; France -3.8%; Denmark -3.0%. Top performers:  Cyprus +2.8%; Greece +0.8%; Russia (MICEX) +0.6%.  
  • FX:  The EUR/USD is down -0.18% week-over-week.  W/W Divergences: PLN/EUR -0.54%, SEK/EUR -0.39%, HUF/EUR -0.28%
  • Fixed Income:  Greek 10YR bond yields fell -107bps week-over-week, versus a gain of similar magnitude last week.  Most other countries were relatively flat week-over-week. Portugal led the charge +32bps to 12.55%, followed by Spain (+8bps) to 5.88%. Italy fell -7bps to 5.42%.

Weekly European Monitor: Shorting France and Buying Bunds - aa. yields



Portfolio: Short France (EWQ); Long German Bunds (BUNL)

Keith shorted France (EWQ) and bought German Bunds (BUNL) in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio yesterday (4/12). The moves are a continuation of our thinking about Europe: there’s a relative advantage to playing the capital markets of the stronger countries on the long side and weaker countries on the short side, at a price. We’re highly sensitive to price and well aware that there’s no simple equation to pair or hedge risk in Europe: political headline risk, even from the tiniest of countries in Europe, can roll country equity indices and influence yields across the continent.  And we don’t expect this trend to change. Namely, we expect Eurocrats to continue to behave in a reactive manner, with the next call likely being the re-engagement of the SMP, which has been dormant for the last four weeks. This program may help to reduce the recent spike in sovereign yields and rise in CDS, yet does little to address the larger box the Eurozone is trapped in. That said, we’ve yet to see a disruption in the tight trading band of the EUR/USD of $1.30 - $1.34. We recommend trading the range, until further notice.


The timing of our short France position also plays into Sunday’s first of two French presidential election votes and increased fear around the sovereign and banking risk of Spain. The incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy is favored to win the first vote versus Socialist candidate Francois Hollande; however Hollande is expected to win the deciding second vote 53% to 47% according to an Ifop-Fiducial poll published on April 6th.  What’s broadly clear is that both candidates plan to increase taxes and impose fees on financial transactions.  Both have declared to reduce the country’s deficit to 0% (as a % of GDP), Hollande by 2017 and Sarkozy by 2016.  Both guide to reduce the deficit to 3% by 2013 versus 5.3% in 2011.


However, Hollande has signaled an even more socialist agenda, which we think should result in the inability of the state to meet its deficit and debt reduction targets. Hollande wants to increase spending by €20 MM over five years (by repealing €29 MM of tax breaks and generating revenue by separating retail and investment bank operations and raising the income tax on earners over €1 MM to 75%) and reduce the retirement age to 60 from 62.  With the country’s debt rising to the 90% level, we expect growth to be compressed, as proven by the work of Reinhart and Rogoff.


Simply put, the CAC has run well ahead of peer indices and has room to revert. The CAC is at 0.9% year-to-date, while the Spanish IBEX is down -15.4% YTD.


Weekly European Monitor: Shorting France and Buying Bunds - aa. ewq


With respect to our position on German Bunds, we bought BUNL on a pullback, and continue to like Germany's employment and fiscal situation, which is much more tolerable than America’s right now and most of the Eurozone. Germany, across the capital markets, continues to signal a relatively safer bet.


Weekly European Monitor: Shorting France and Buying Bunds - aa. bunl


Call Outs:

SMP - European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure suggested that the bank could revive its bond-purchase program to reduce Spain’s borrowing costs: “We have an instrument, the securities markets program, which hasn’t been used recently but it still exists.”


Spain - borrowed €227.6B from the ECB in March, up €75B versus February, the same amount Italy borrowed in March.


Portugal - Dependence of the Portuguese banking system on the ECB rose to a record high in March, as banks took advantage of easier borrowing conditions: Bank of Portugal said domestic banks' use of the ECB's various credit facilities rose to €56.32 billion in March from €47.55 billion in February.


Switzerland - “The Swiss National Bank is enforcing the minimum exchange rate with all the means at its disposal,” SNB President Thomas Jordan told reporters at a press briefing today. “We are prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities for this purpose. In this respect, our policies are totally unchanged.”


Italy – Bond auction come in with higher yields. The bank sold €8.0B in 12-month bills with an average yield of 2.840% vs 2.392% prior; and €2.884 billion of 3YR bonds vs a €3 billion max target with a yield of 3.89% vs 2.76% previously.


EUR/USD - Most-accurate foreign-exchange forecasters say the euro will slide as austerity-driven spending cuts from Spain to Italy reignite debt turmoil and drag the region into recession

  • Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo & Co., expects the euro to drop more than 5% to $1.24 at the end of 2012.
  • Westpac Banking Corp., which had the second-lowest margin of error, predicts $1.26.



CDS Risk Monitor:


Week-over-week Spain saw the largest gains in CDS, +12bps to 487bps, while the other countries we follow were relatively flat.  Ireland flashed an inflection, down -16bps to 589bps. 


Weekly European Monitor: Shorting France and Buying Bunds - aa. cds   a


Weekly European Monitor: Shorting France and Buying Bunds - aa. cds   b


Data Dump:

Eurozone Industrial Production -1.8% FEB Y/Y vs -1.7% JAN

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence -14.7 APR (exp. -9.1) vs -8.2 MAR


Germany CPI 2.3% MAR Y/Y vs 2.5% FEB

Germany Exports 1.6% FEB M/M (exp. -1.2%) vs 3.4% JAN

Germany Imports 3.9% FEB M/M (exp. 1.3%) vs 2.4% JAN

Germany Wholesale Price Index 2.2% MAR Y/Y vs 2.6% FEB   [0.9% MAR M/M vs 1% FEB]


UK PPI Input 1.9% MAR M/M (exp. 1.4%) vs 2.5% FEB   [5.8% MAR Y/Y (exp. 4.8%) vs 7.8% FEB]

UK PPI Output 0.6% MAR M/M  (exp. 0.5%) vs 0.6% FEB    [3.6% MAR Y/Y (exp. 3.5%) vs 4.1% FEB]


France Bank France Business Sentiment 95 MAR vs 95 FEB

France Industrial Production -1.9% FEB Y/Y (exp. -1.2%) vs -1.9% JAN

France Manufacturing Production -3.7% FEB Y/Y (exp. -1.7%) vs -1.7% JAN

France CPI 2.6% MAR Y/Y vs 2.5% FEB

Italy Industrial Production -3.5% FEB Y/Y vs -1.7% JAN


Spain House Transactions -31.8% FEB Y/Y vs -26.3% JAN

Spain Industrial Output -3% FEB Y/Y vs -2.5% JAN

Spain CPI 1.8% MAR Y/Y vs 1.9% FEB


Sweden Industrial Production -7.1% FEB Y/Y vs 1.7% JAN

Sweden CPI  1.5% MAR Y/Y vs 1.9% FEB

Switzerland Unemployment Rate 3.1% MAR (UNCH)


Norway Industrial Production 3.1% FEB Y/Y vs 3% JAN

Ireland Consumer Confidence 60.6 MAR vs 57 FEB

Ireland CPI 2.2% MAR Y/Y vs 2.1% FEB

Ireland Industrial Production -3% FEB Y/Y (exp. -0.5%0 vs -0.2% JAN

Finland CPI 2.9% MAR Y/Y vs 3.1% FEB


Greece Industrial Production -8.3% FEB Y/Y vs -5% JAN

Greece CPI 1.7% MAR Y/Y vs 2.1% FEB

Greece Unemployment Rate 21.8% JAN vs 21% DEC


Portugal Industrial Sales 0.7% FEB Y/Y vs 2.9% JAN

Portugal Construction Works Index 61.4 FEB vs 63.2 JAN

Portugal CPI 3.1% MAR Y/Y vs 3.6% FEB


Russia Light Vehicle and Car Sales 13% MAR Y/Y vs 25% FEB

Turkey Industrial Production 4.4% FEB Y/Y (NSA) vs 1.5% JAN

Hungary Consumer Prices 5.5% MAR Y/Y vs 5.9% FEB

Hungary Industrial Production -3.4% FEB Y/Y vs -2.7% JAN


Interest Rate Decisions:

(4/9) Russia - Bank Rossii left the refinancing rate UNCH at 8.00%; overnight auction-based repurchase rate UNCH at 5.25%; and the overnight deposit rate UNCH at 4.00%.


(4/12) Serbia Interest Rate UNCH at 9.50%



The European Week Ahead:

Sunday: Apr. UK Rightmove House Prices


Monday: Feb. Eurozone Trade Balance; Moody's Completes Review of 24 Italian Bank Ratings (Decision on Apr 20); Feb. Italy Trade Balance, General Government Debt


Tuesday: Apr. Eurozone Zew Survey Economic Sentiment; Mar. Eurozone New Car Registrations, CPI; Apr. Germany Zew Survey Current Situation and Economic Sentiment; Mar. UK CPI, RPI; Feb. UK House Prices; Feb. Italy Current Account


Wednesday: Feb. Eurozone Current Account, Construction Output; UK BoE Minutes; Mar. UK Claimant Count Rate, Jobless Claims Change; Feb. UK Avg Weekly Earnings, ILO Unemployment Rate; 1Q Spain House Price Index; Feb. Spain Trade Balance; Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate


Thursday: Group Meeting of 20 Deputy Finance Ministers (Apr 19-22); Apr. Eurozone Consumer Confidence – Advance; Feb. Italy Industrial Orders and Sales; Feb. Greece Current Account


Friday: Annual Spring Meeting of the IMF/World Bank (Apr 20-22); Mar. Germany Producer Prices, IFO Business Climate, Current Assessment, and Expectations; Mar. UK Retail Sales


Sunday: First round of the French Presidential Election



Extended Calendar Call-Outs:

22 April:  French Elections (Round 1) begins, to conclude in May.


29 April, 6 or 13 May:  Potential Greek Presidential Elections.


30 June:  Deadline for EU Banks to meet €106 billion capital target/the 9% Tier 1 capital ratio.


1 July:  ESM to come into force.



Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst

Retail Thinking It Can Grow Again?

Retail employment levels continue to make higher highs and higher lows as the CPI for apparel continues to grind higher. This is both on a stand-alone basis, and relative to the rest of the US employment picture. It's as if the industry is starting to believe it can grow again.


We'll be careful not to compare apples and oranges, as the Monster employment index also includes Auto, Food and Hardlines retail. But retail wages don't change a whole heck of a lot whether an employee is selling socks, X-Boxes, or windshield wiper blades. But with employment higher in conjunction with consumer prices, it suggests that retailers are getting more bold (or less cautious) with hiring activity. 


The March numbers were the easiest employment compares of the year, and the become precipitously more difficult starting in April.


This will be an increasingly important trend for us to watch effective immediately, especially given the Gross Margin pressure that we think will come in 2H due to changes in the competitive landscape.


Retail employment is making higher highs and higher lows

Retail Thinking It Can Grow Again? - 2


...even relative to the rest of retail.

Retail Thinking It Can Grow Again? - 4 13 2012 2 40 17 PM



...while consumer prices grind higher.

Retail Thinking It Can Grow Again? - 3





Earlier today, the Hedgeye Macro Team, led by CEO, Keith McCullough, and DOR, Daryl Jones, hosted its 2Q12 Macro Themes Call.


Topics included:   

  • The Last War: Fed Fighting - We take a historical look at U.S. Federal Reserve policy to contextualize the impact of Ben Bernanke's Policy to Inflate, Extend & Pretend rock-bottom interest rates, and Burn the Buck on the broader economy and financial markets from Main Street to Wall Street.
  • Bernanke's Bubbles - A highlight of the top ten leverage price bubble charts perpetuated and encouraged by The Bernank's policy stance.
  • Asymmetric Risks - In a macro environment of slow global growth and historically low interest rates we present asymmetric risks to capitalize on over the intermediate term. Low equity market volatility is but one signal of what's ahead for investors. 

To access the replay podcast and the presentation materials, please copy/paste the following two links into the URL of your browser:

Have a great weekend, 


The Hedgeye Macro Team

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