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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 13, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 38 points or -2.42% downside to 1354 and 0.32% upside to 1392. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/12 NYSE 1933
    • Up from the prior day’s trading of 1684
  • VOLUME: on 4/12 NYSE 756.67
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -4.24%
  • VIX:  as of 4/12 was at 17.20
    • Decrease  versus most recent day’s trading of -14.09%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -26.50%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/12 closed at 2.11
    • Increase from the day prior at 2.04 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


GROWTH SLOWING – away from the economic data (which now includes US employment gains slowing), Copper and 10yr UST yields are the most obvious signals this morning with Copper moving into a falling knife formation (-1.6%) and 10yr slicing back through our intermediate-term TREND support of 2.03% to 2.01% last. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 2.01
    • Down from prior day’s trading of 2.05
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.73
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.77 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:00am, Fed’s Dudley speaks in Buffalo on the economy
  • 8:30am: CPI (M/m), Mar., est. 0.3% (prior 0.4%)
  • 9:55am: U.Mich, Apr. P, est. 76.2 (prior 76.2)
  • 1pm: Bernanke speaks in New York on financial crisis and policy response
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
  • 2:15pm: Dudley visits cancer center in Buffalo 

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama speaks on benefits of trade with Latin America at Port of Tampa, Fla. 1:20pm
    • Obama departs Tampa for Cartegena, Colombia, for April 14-15 Summit of the Americas
    • Mitt Romney speaks to NRA annual meeting in St. Louis. 1pm 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo are first two big U.S. financial cos. to report 1Q earnings
  • CPI probably rose at slower pace in March.
  • Google gives founders share-issuing power at investors’ expense: corporate-governance experts
  • U.S. video-game industry sales fell 25% in March, NPD says; watch GME, MSFT, EA, SNE
  • Best Buy said to probe ex-CEO Dunn’s relationship with employee
  • China’s below-forecast GDP growth of 8.1% may mark end of slowdown
  • Spanish banks’ ECB borrowings climb to $300b in March
  • Infosys sales forecast misses est.; follows report SAP off to slower 1Q start in North America; watch IT services stocks
  • North Korean long-range missile launch fails
  • Judge to consider approval of L.A. Dodgers bankruptcy plan
  • Week Ahead preview: G-20, IMF Meetings, Goldman, Iran Talks 

 EARNINGS:

    • JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) 6:58 a.m., $1.17
    • Shaw Communications (SJR/B CN) 8 a.m., $0.38
    • Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) 8 a.m., $0.73    

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Sugar Traders Extend Longest Bear Streak Since ‘07: Commodities
  • Corn Climbs on Signs of Rising U.S. Export Demand; Soybeans Drop
  • Oil Drops First Time in 3 Days on China Slowdown, Naimi Pledge
  • Copper Falls, Extends Second Weekly Drop as Chinese Growth Slows
  • Gold May Decline as Some Investors Sell Following Weekly Advance
  • Cocoa Advances as Some Investors May Be Buying; Sugar Retreats
  • Coffee Crop in Vietnam Gets Boost From Heavy Rain, Aids Fruiting
  • Commodities to Gain 5-20% in Second Half, Credit Suisse Says
  • Gold Set for Rebound With Support at $1,600: Technical Analysis
  • Cheniere Shale-Gas Exports Hinge on U.S.-Asia Price Gap: Energy
  • Nuclear Halt in South Korea Seen Boosting Coal: Energy Markets
  • Oil May Fall After Iranian Nuclear Program Talks, Survey Shows
  • India Said to Consider 16% Increase in State Rice Purchase Price
  • Sugar Traders Seen Bearish for Seventh Week
  • ING Investment Favors Indonesian Coal Bonds on Asian Resilience
  • Kansas Farmers May Increase Soybean Planting After Wheat Harvest
  • Citigroup Countersued by Rajaraman in Singapore Over Gold Losses 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


EUROPE – certified train wreck remains in motion – it’s not different this time – you can’t ban economic gravity when imposing Stagflation on your people (Italian CPI +3.3% with Growth flat to down); Sold our long Germany position yesterday and re-shorted France because we think the gap between Spain -12% YTD and France’s CAC +2% YTD is going to narrow #Mean Reversion.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 


ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – GDP growth slows from 8.9% Q4 to 8.1% Q1, missing whatever whisper found its way into the mo mo community yesterday (someone should tell them Global Macro isn’t like small cap rumoring); Chinese stocks acted fine on that because they act inversely with Commodity inflation and Chinese bank lending. Commodities bulls freak out.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team