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Bearish TRADE: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

POSITIONS: Long Financials (XLF) and Utilities (XLU), Short Industrials (XLI)

 

Day 2 of the bounce doesn’t matter so much as the price level does. The SP500 needs to recapture its immediate-term TRADE line of 1391, and soon, or this market’s immediate-term price momentum is broken.

 

Volume is already broken, across durations, as fund flows are nowhere to be found. Volatility (VIX) just reminded people of the 2008, 2010, and 2011 moves from the Q1 VIX lows to the Q3 VIX highs.

 

Across my core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter most: 

  1. Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1391
  2. Immediate-term TRADE support = 1352
  3. Intermediate-term TRADE support = 1331 

In other words, correcting to 1331 would be proactively predictable from this price since Growth Slowing has gone global.

 

Meanwhile, a close > 1391 = very bullish, and a close < 1331 = very bearish.

 

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Bearish TRADE: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - SPX


THE HBM: BK, BJRI, BNHNA, BWLD

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR

 

HEDGEYE VIRTUAL PORTFOLIO POSITIONS

 

LONGS: EAT, JACK, SBUX

 

SHORTS: BWLD, DNKN, MCD

 

MACRO NOTES

 

Jobless Claims – Bad News for Casual Dining

 

Initial jobless claims came in at 380k versus 355k consensus for the week ended April 7.  The prior week’s tally came in at a revised 367k versus 357k prior.  Our view on casual dining is getting incrementally more bearish and we will be posting further thoughts on this soon. 

 

THE HBM: BK, BJRI, BNHNA, BWLD - initial claims

 

 

Commentary from CEO Keith McCullough

 

Japan is slowly, but surely, winding its way up the Keynesian pole to Most Read news (Bloomberg) next to Fed begging:

  1. JAPAN – the BOJ’s Shirakawa said exactly what we have been saying he’s ultimately going to have to say “The BOJ WILL PURSUE POWERFUL EASING” – that’s the go to Bernanke move (Policy to Inflate), and it stopped Japanese Equities from going down for the 1st day in 9 (+0.7%); Yen down on that obviously, but can go down a lot more
  2. EUROPE – certified train wreck in motion in Spain and Italy again with both stock markets following their respective bond markets (lower); Italian bond auction yielding 3.89% (vs 2.76% last) on 2015 notes – and get this, the Japanese say, hey, we have our own issues, we aren’t buying pig paper.
  3. US DOLLAR – sheepishly, the Fed’s Janet Yellen gave a speech in NYC last night that said what she always says – she’s all for devaluing the US Dollar until she’s told to retire. USD not moving much anymore on these comments; maybe because it hasn’t worked; maybe because political change is coming – we will see. Currency War is on.

SP500 needs to close > 1391 for any no volume rally to matter. 1 up day in the last 6 doesn’t a bull market make.

KM

 

 

SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HBM: BK, BJRI, BNHNA, BWLD - subsectors

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

 

BK: Burger King got a write-up today in the WSJ, in an article focusing on the franchising trend in QSR.  John Gordon, a restaurant analyst, said that the problem with Burger King is that “the unit economics are so bad” … “because of bad store management over the past 40 or 50 years, you got all these beat up stores”.

 

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

 

SBUX: Starbucks gained 4.4% on accelerating volume.

 

MCD: McDonald’s underperformed after trading well, on a relative basis, over the two prior days’ down tapes.

 

 

CASUAL DINING

 

BWLD: Buffalo Wild Wing’s will print comps in line with consensus, if Wingstop’s 1Q results are anything to go by (and the chart below suggests they are).  Consensus Metrix is indicating that consensus company-owned same-store sales for BWLD is 10.74%.

 

THE HBM: BK, BJRI, BNHNA, BWLD - BWLD wingstop

 

 

BJRI: BJ’s rated new “Overweight” at Barclays Capital.  The PT is $57 per share.

 

BNHNA: Benihana comps increased 6% in 1Q.  Increased traffic was credited with lifting the top line. 

 

THE HBM: BK, BJRI, BNHNA, BWLD - stocks

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 


CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION

Lots of Takeaways from this Morning's Claims Number

There are two important dynamics affecting this week's claims number. First, this week's jobless claims number was affected by the Spring break week, in which school bus drivers and cafeteria workers are eligible to collect claims. Normally, the seasonal adjustment factor captures that dynamic, but this year it was off by a week. That means that this should reverse next week. Second, the prior week was upwardly revised by 10k and that had nothing to do with the Spring break dynamic. Overall, the headline initial claims number rose 23k to 380k (13k after the 10k upward revision to last week's data). Rolling claims increased 4.25k to 369k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims rose 63k to 382k.

 

Overall, claims are rising, which is consistent with our outlook for the seasonality dynamics as we've published recently. 

 

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - Raw update

 

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - Rolling

 

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - NSA

 

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - Rolling NSA

 

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - S P

 

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - fed

 

2-10 Spread

The 2-10 spread tightened 14 bps versus last week to 174 bps as of yesterday.  The ten-year bond yield decreased 19 bps to 203 bps.

 

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - 2 10

 

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - 2 10 QoQ

 

Financial Subsector Performance

The table below shows the stock performance of each Financial subsector over four durations. 

 

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - Subsector performance

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur

 

Robert Belsky

 

Having trouble viewing the charts in this email?  Please click the link below. 

 


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The Sum of Experiences

This note was originally published at 8am on March 29, 2012. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don’t matter and those who matter don’t mind.”

-Dr. Seuss

 

I’m sure after reading the quote above, especially after reading yesterday’s declaration of the Bernanke War, you are wondering if Keith has gone soft.  Well, since I’ve known Keith for upwards of 15 years, I can say categorically he hasn’t gone soft, but he has handed the proverbial hockey stick on today’s Early Look to me as he is flying up to Thunder Bay, Ontario.

 

Yesterday, we had a long internal debate about branding and marketing.  The key questions, which of course are similar for your organizations, related to who we are, who we want to be, and what people actually think we are.  These are challenging questions for any organization, especially one that perceives itself to be the standard bearer for Wall Street 2.0.

 

Naturally, being the social media addict that I am, after our meeting I posed the question to the Twitter Sphere.  Specifically, I tweeted:

 

@HedgeyeDJ Question for the day: What is a brand?

 

The best answer actually came from a good friend and former colleague who tweeted back that “a brand is specifically the *perceived* sum of all the experiences, actual and emotional, associated with your brand.”  If you think about it, that’s not totally dissimilar to a stock price or stock index price.  It is actually the sum of all fundamental inputs, plus the behavioral or emotional input of market participants.

 

In the Chart of the Day, we actually emphasize that last point in looking at Chinese equities.  The Shanghai Composite, which is a capitalization weighted index which tracks all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, is at a 10-week low.  Further, the index is only up +3.9% in the year-to-date and is down -22.5% in the last year.  In as much as China is a proxy for global growth, as one of the world’s fastest growing and largest economies, the performance of Chinese equities is a little disconcerting. 

 

The next key catalyst for the Chinese economy is Chinese PMI, which is out this Saturday.  Ahead of that, as is typical before disappointing Chinese data, rumors are circulating that China will implement another reserve requirement ratio cut.  In theory, this action will free up money supply within the Chinese banking system.  My belief is if the Chinese indeed have to ease again, then it is probably ominous for the Chinese growth outlook.   Incidentally, the last time the Chinese cut the “RRR” was on the weekend of February 19thand the Shanghai Composite is literally in a straight line down since then.

 

For those that are looking for bullish global growth catalysts, you need to look no further than Morgan Stanley and HSBC.  This morning Morgan Stanley upped its China GDP growth forecast to 9.0% from 8.4%, while HSBC raised its price targets for all major Chinese indices.   HSBC may be on to something as slowing growth is starting to, obviously, be priced into Chinese equities.  As for Morgan Stanley, I’m not sure what they are feeling (or smoking for that matter).

 

The other key data points from global macro land this morning come from Europe.  As usually occurs when austerity is implemented aggressively, a general strike is underway in Spain this morning.  Interestingly, neither strikes, especially those that result in clashes with the policy, nor austerity are all that positive for economic growth.  I dare say that Spain is starting to look a little like Greece, but don’t take my word for it.  According to the head of the Spanish Banking Federation, “the strike takes us a lot closer to Greece and farther from Germany.”

 

For starters, I’m not sure Spain was ever all that close to Germany, except perhaps by plane or high speed train.  Germany’s unemployment rate fell -18,000 in March versus an estimate of -10,000 and the unemployment rate is now at 6.7%, which is a 20-year low.  Conversely, the Spanish unemployment rate is just shy of 23%. 

 

Also, unlike Germany, Spanish credit default swaps have accelerated dramatically recently.  In fact, Spanish 5-year CDS are now trading at 423 basis points, which is up more than 14% since the start of the month.  While still below the all-time high, this measure of risk certainly agrees with the idea that Spain is moving closer to Greece than Germany.  Incidentally, Spain Housing permits were down -25% year-over-year this morning, as well.

 

I’ll leave you with one last thought this morning from an email my colleague Darius Dale just sent to our team:

 

“Global cross-asset volatility hasn’t been this low since OCT ’07. Terrifying. Unless, of course, this time is different and we’ve reached “escape velocity”. Bernanke’s war has begun; we’re either off to the races from a growth perspective or things are about to get weird. You have to pick sides at these levels of investor complacency.”

 

Weird? Indeed.  Almost as weird as starting a Wall Street morning strategy note with a quote from Dr. Seuss.  Or, perhaps, that is all part of the brand . . .

 

Our immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), and the SP500 are now $1652-1689, $122.12-124.96, and 1391-1419, respectively.

 

Keep your head up and stick on the ice,

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 

The Sum of Experiences - Chart of the Day

 

The Sum of Experiences - Virtual Portfolio


THE M3: LOT 3; TAM COMMENTS; HK JUNKET; CHINESE BANK LENDING

The Macau Metro Monitor, April 12, 2012

 

 

SANDS LOT 3 COULD BE OPEN IN THREE YEARS Macau Business, Macau Daily Times

LVS Chairman Sheldon Adelson says the piling works on lot three in Cotai could be in by year-end.  Adelson added that it could then take up to 30 months for the property to be completed.  Adelson disclosed that the company had so far spent US$ 4.4 billion to develop the Sands Cotai Central project and more will be invested.  LVS will have invested as much as US$5 billion when the fourth tower of the Cotai Central is complete in 2013.


LVS COO Michael Leven said that the courts are still deciding where the Steve Jacbos lawsuit should take place – Macau or Las Vegas.  
“Our opinion is that the lawsuit should be in Macau,” Leven said.  “When that happens then it will progress to discovery, and that will probably take another six or eight months, another year or so, it's going to go on for a long time.”

 

Sands Macau CEO, Edward Tracy, stressed that the casinos on the Cotai Strip were different from those on the Macau Peninsula, especially those closer to the Barrier Gate where visitors tend to stay a shorter period of time and only engage in gaming.  Those on the Cotai Strip have more leisure and entertainment elements and would not be in direct competition with casinos elsewhere.  Tracy expected visitors to the resort to stay longer in order to enjoy leisure and shopping activities.  He estimated that the average time of stay by visitors to Macau would reach 3.6 days in five years’ time, compared with the current 1.5 days.

 

Q1 GAMING REVENUE MEETS EXPECTATION Macau Daily News

Secretary for Economy and Finance Francis Tam said the growth of Macau’s gaming revenue in Q1 is in-line with expectations despite a slowdown.  He says that the government has approved 200 new gaming tables to Sands Cotai Central, and will maintain Macau’s total number of gaming tables within 5,500 by 2013.  There were 5,302 gaming tables in Macau as of the Q4 of 2011.

 

SJM CEO Ambrose So says he is expecting gaming revenue growth to grow double-digits in 2012. 

 

JUNKET SUES JAPANESE BUSINESSMAN FOR HKD 110MM Macau Daily Times

A Hong Kong junket operator filed a lawsuit in Japan against the former chairman of leading paper manufacturer, Daio, for failing to repay a debt of HKD 110 million (Yen 1.1 billion) he owed to the junket operator and subsequently lost in a Macau casino in 2010.


Ikawa Tomotaka, former chairman of Daio Paper, borrowed the money from “Million Win Investments Limited”, on separate occasions two years ago.  The Japanese businessman promised to settle the debt last year but only paid about one-tenth of the amount.  As a result, the junket operator decided to bring the case to court in Tokyo, according to Japanese newspapers.  In an attempt to repay the debt, the ex-chairman borrowed a total of approximately Yen 5.5 billion in unsecured loans from seven subsidiaries of Daio Paper from March to September last year and caused substantial financial damage to these affiliated companies.

 

CHINA BANK LENDING SOARS TO TOP 1 TRILLION YUAN Marketwatch

Chinese banks lent 1.01 trillion yuan ($160.1 billion) during March, much higher the 880 billion yuan that the Street was expecting.  

 




Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.57%
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