CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION

Lots of Takeaways from this Morning's Claims Number

There are two important dynamics affecting this week's claims number. First, this week's jobless claims number was affected by the Spring break week, in which school bus drivers and cafeteria workers are eligible to collect claims. Normally, the seasonal adjustment factor captures that dynamic, but this year it was off by a week. That means that this should reverse next week. Second, the prior week was upwardly revised by 10k and that had nothing to do with the Spring break dynamic. Overall, the headline initial claims number rose 23k to 380k (13k after the 10k upward revision to last week's data). Rolling claims increased 4.25k to 369k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims rose 63k to 382k.

Overall, claims are rising, which is consistent with our outlook for the seasonality dynamics as we've published recently. 

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - Raw update

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - Rolling

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - NSA

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - Rolling NSA

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - S P

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - fed

2-10 Spread

The 2-10 spread tightened 14 bps versus last week to 174 bps as of yesterday.  The ten-year bond yield decreased 19 bps to 203 bps.

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - 2 10

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - 2 10 QoQ

Financial Subsector Performance

The table below shows the stock performance of each Financial subsector over four durations. 

CLAIMS RISE SHARPLY - THE FACT AND THE FICTION - Subsector performance

Joshua Steiner, CFA

Allison Kaptur

Robert Belsky

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