THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 12, 2012

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 36 points or -1.00% downside to 1355 and 1.63% upside to 1391. 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

• ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/11 NYSE 1684
  • Up from the prior day’s trading of -2133
• VOLUME: on 4/11 NYSE 790.20
  • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -18.72%
• VIX:  as of 4/11 was at 20.02
  • Decrease  versus most recent day’s trading of -1.81%
  • Year-to-date decrease of -14.44%
• SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/11 closed at 2.04
  • Increase from the day prior at 1.52 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

• TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
• 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
• 10-Year: as of this morning 2.03
• Down from prior day’s trading of 2.04
• YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.74
• Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.75 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

• 7:15am: NY Fed’s Dudley speaks in Syracuse on economy
• 8:30am: Trade Balance, Feb., est. -$51.8b (prior -$52.6b)
• 8:30am: PPI (M/m), Mar., est. 0.3% (prior 0.4%)
• 8:30am: Jobless Claims, week of Apr. 7, est. 355k (prior 357k)
• 9am: ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet speaks in New York
• 9am: Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart will moderate panel discussion on U.S.-Mexican relations at Atlanta Fed
• 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week of Apr. 8
• 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
• 10am: New York Fed’s Cumming, Fed Board’s Liang speak on panel on financial reform proposals at conference in New York
• 10:30am: EIA natural gas
• 11am: NY Fed’s Dudley speaks in Syracuse on the economy
• 12:30pm: Philadelphia Fed’s Plosser speaks on economic outlook to National Economists Club in Washington
• 1pm: Minneapolis Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks to Chamber of Commerce in White Bear Lake, Minnesota
• 1pm: U.S. to sell $13b 30-yr bonds (reopening)
• 2:35pm: NY Fed’s Dudley visits medical device manufacturer in Skaneateles Falls, NY
• 3:30pm: Fed’s Raskin speaks in Los Angeles on the economy 

GOVERNMENT:

• Federal Election Commission considers request from Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s campaign to waive contribution limits, allow replacement of millions of dollars lost in embezzlement scheme
• VP Joe Biden holds town hall in Exeter, N.H. noon
• IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde speaks at the Brookings Institution, 11am
• White House conf. to preview Barack Obama’s participation in 6th Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia, 9am
• Adm. Jonathan Greenert, chief of naval operations, speaks at National Press Club, 7:30am 

WHAT TO WATCH:

• Trade deficit in the U.S. may have retreated in February as imports cooled from a record, economists est.
• Google releases results after the close of trading; watch cost-per-click, click-through rates
• Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen endorses view that borrowing costs likely to stay low through 2014
• BlackRock plans to start a bond-trading system that will allow investors to bypass investment banks
• Roche reiterates it seeks talks with Illumina, says publicly available info doesn’t justify higher price
• Shell deploys oil-spill response vessel after finding “a light sheen” of oil between Mars, Ursa production areas in Gulf of Mexico
• Oaktree Capital raises $380.2m in IPO, bringing in about 27% less than originally sought
• Sony will cut 10,000 jobs, about 6% of its workforce, two days after reporting record loss
• Wal-Mart hosts investor meeting in Toronto
• Nokia slides for second day as analysts cut price targets following profit warning
• FDA advisory panel recommends whether to tighten approval standards for breast transilluminators, how to classify blood irradiators
• North Korean makes final preparations for missile launch 

EARNINGS:

• Cogeco Cable (CCA CN) 5:59 a.m., C$0.98
• Rite Aid (RAD) 7 a.m., $(0.14)
• Eldorado Gold (ELD CN) 7 a.m., $0.18
• Corus Entertainment (CJR/B CN) 7 a.m., C$0.37
• Fastenal (FAST) 7:50 a.m., $0.34
• Commerce Bancshares /MO (CBSH) 9 a.m., $0.67
• Novagold Resources (NG CN) 9:15 a.m., C$(0.05)
• JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) 4 p.m., $0.52
• Google (GOOG) 4:01 p.m., $9.64
• Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) 6 p.m., $0.51     

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

• Top Analysts See Copper Rising Even as China Slows: Commodities
• Palm Oil Drops Most in Two Months as U.S. Soybean Acres May Gain
• Oil Advances to One-Week High After U.S. Fuel Stockpiles Decline
• Copper Rises for Second Day on China Policy-Easing Speculation
• IEA Sees Oil Market Better-Supplied for First Time Since 2009
• Gold May Decline as Traders View U.S., Europe Stimulus Unlikely
• Sugar May Fall on Brazil Production Speculation; Cocoa Drops
• Commodities Will ‘Drift Lower’ as Stimulus Ends, UBS Says
• Indonesia’s Mineral-Ore Ban Probably to Be Diluted, S&P Says
• Thai Sugar Output May Climb to Record on Yields, Board Says
• German Power’s Longest Slump Squeezes EON, RWE: Energy Markets
• Argentina Stifles Shale Oil Interest With Seizure Threat: Energy
• Gold Holdings Signal Slump, Credit Suisse Says: Chart of the Day
• IEA Says Crude Market Is Better Supplied
• Corn, Wheat Advance as Freezing Weather Threaten U.S. Crops
• Shell Falls Most in Two Months on Gulf of Mexico Oil-Leak Probe
• Trafigura to Buy $130-Million Stake in Indian Oil Refinery 

CURRENCIES

US DOLLAR – sheepishly, the Fed’s Janet Yellen gave a speech in NYC last night that said what she always says – she’s all for devaluing the US Dollar until she’s told to retire. USD not moving much anymore on these comments; maybe because it hasn’t worked; maybe because political change is coming – we will see. Currency War is on.

EUROPEAN MARKETS

EUROPE – certified train wreck in motion in Spain and Italy again with both stock markets following their respective bond markets (lower); Italian bond auction yielding 3.89% (vs 2.76% last) on 2015 notes – and get this, the Japanese say, hey, we have our own issues, we aren’t buying pig paper.

ASIAN MARKETS

JAPAN – the BOJ’s Shirakawa said exactly what we have been saying he’s ultimately going to have to say “The  BOJ  WILL  PURSUE  POWERFUL  EASING” – that’s the go to Bernanke move (Policy to Inflate), and it stopped Japanese Equities from going down for the 1st day in 9 (+0.7%); Yen down on that obviously, but can go down a lot more.

MIDDLE EAST

The Hedgeye Macro Team