THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 12, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 36 points or -1.00% downside to 1355 and 1.63% upside to 1391. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/11 NYSE 1684
    • Up from the prior day’s trading of -2133
  • VOLUME: on 4/11 NYSE 790.20
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -18.72%
  • VIX:  as of 4/11 was at 20.02
    • Decrease  versus most recent day’s trading of -1.81%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -14.44%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/11 closed at 2.04
    • Increase from the day prior at 1.52 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 2.03
    • Down from prior day’s trading of 2.04
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.74
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.75 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:15am: NY Fed’s Dudley speaks in Syracuse on economy
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, Feb., est. -$51.8b (prior -$52.6b)
  • 8:30am: PPI (M/m), Mar., est. 0.3% (prior 0.4%)
  • 8:30am: Jobless Claims, week of Apr. 7, est. 355k (prior 357k)
  • 9am: ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet speaks in New York
  • 9am: Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart will moderate panel discussion on U.S.-Mexican relations at Atlanta Fed
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week of Apr. 8
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10am: New York Fed’s Cumming, Fed Board’s Liang speak on panel on financial reform proposals at conference in New York
  • 10:30am: EIA natural gas
  • 11am: NY Fed’s Dudley speaks in Syracuse on the economy
  • 12:30pm: Philadelphia Fed’s Plosser speaks on economic outlook to National Economists Club in Washington
  • 1pm: Minneapolis Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks to Chamber of Commerce in White Bear Lake, Minnesota
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $13b 30-yr bonds (reopening)
  • 2:35pm: NY Fed’s Dudley visits medical device manufacturer in Skaneateles Falls, NY
  • 3:30pm: Fed’s Raskin speaks in Los Angeles on the economy 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Federal Election Commission considers request from Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s campaign to waive contribution limits, allow replacement of millions of dollars lost in embezzlement scheme
    • VP Joe Biden holds town hall in Exeter, N.H. noon
    • IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde speaks at the Brookings Institution, 11am
    • White House conf. to preview Barack Obama’s participation in 6th Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia, 9am
    • Adm. Jonathan Greenert, chief of naval operations, speaks at National Press Club, 7:30am 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Trade deficit in the U.S. may have retreated in February as imports cooled from a record, economists est.
  • Google releases results after the close of trading; watch cost-per-click, click-through rates
  • Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen endorses view that borrowing costs likely to stay low through 2014
  • BlackRock plans to start a bond-trading system that will allow investors to bypass investment banks
  • Roche reiterates it seeks talks with Illumina, says publicly available info doesn’t justify higher price
  • Shell deploys oil-spill response vessel after finding “a light sheen” of oil between Mars, Ursa production areas in Gulf of Mexico
  • Oaktree Capital raises $380.2m in IPO, bringing in about 27% less than originally sought
  • Sony will cut 10,000 jobs, about 6% of its workforce, two days after reporting record loss
  • Wal-Mart hosts investor meeting in Toronto
  • Nokia slides for second day as analysts cut price targets following profit warning
  • FDA advisory panel recommends whether to tighten approval standards for breast transilluminators, how to classify blood irradiators
  • North Korean makes final preparations for missile launch 

EARNINGS:

    • Cogeco Cable (CCA CN) 5:59 a.m., C$0.98
    • Rite Aid (RAD) 7 a.m., $(0.14)
    • Eldorado Gold (ELD CN) 7 a.m., $0.18
    • Corus Entertainment (CJR/B CN) 7 a.m., C$0.37
    • Fastenal (FAST) 7:50 a.m., $0.34
    • Commerce Bancshares /MO (CBSH) 9 a.m., $0.67
    • Novagold Resources (NG CN) 9:15 a.m., C$(0.05)
    • JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) 4 p.m., $0.52
    • Google (GOOG) 4:01 p.m., $9.64
    • Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) 6 p.m., $0.51     

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Top Analysts See Copper Rising Even as China Slows: Commodities
  • Palm Oil Drops Most in Two Months as U.S. Soybean Acres May Gain
  • Oil Advances to One-Week High After U.S. Fuel Stockpiles Decline
  • Copper Rises for Second Day on China Policy-Easing Speculation
  • IEA Sees Oil Market Better-Supplied for First Time Since 2009
  • Gold May Decline as Traders View U.S., Europe Stimulus Unlikely
  • Sugar May Fall on Brazil Production Speculation; Cocoa Drops
  • Commodities Will ‘Drift Lower’ as Stimulus Ends, UBS Says
  • Indonesia’s Mineral-Ore Ban Probably to Be Diluted, S&P Says
  • Thai Sugar Output May Climb to Record on Yields, Board Says
  • German Power’s Longest Slump Squeezes EON, RWE: Energy Markets
  • Argentina Stifles Shale Oil Interest With Seizure Threat: Energy
  • Gold Holdings Signal Slump, Credit Suisse Says: Chart of the Day
  • IEA Says Crude Market Is Better Supplied
  • Corn, Wheat Advance as Freezing Weather Threaten U.S. Crops
  • Shell Falls Most in Two Months on Gulf of Mexico Oil-Leak Probe
  • Trafigura to Buy $130-Million Stake in Indian Oil Refinery 

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CURRENCIES


US DOLLAR – sheepishly, the Fed’s Janet Yellen gave a speech in NYC last night that said what she always says – she’s all for devaluing the US Dollar until she’s told to retire. USD not moving much anymore on these comments; maybe because it hasn’t worked; maybe because political change is coming – we will see. Currency War is on.

 

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


EUROPE – certified train wreck in motion in Spain and Italy again with both stock markets following their respective bond markets (lower); Italian bond auction yielding 3.89% (vs 2.76% last) on 2015 notes – and get this, the Japanese say, hey, we have our own issues, we aren’t buying pig paper.

 

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ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – the BOJ’s Shirakawa said exactly what we have been saying he’s ultimately going to have to say “The  BOJ  WILL  PURSUE  POWERFUL  EASING” – that’s the go to Bernanke move (Policy to Inflate), and it stopped Japanese Equities from going down for the 1st day in 9 (+0.7%); Yen down on that obviously, but can go down a lot more.

 

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

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7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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