Preliminary April forecast of HK $24-25 billion, up 21-25% YoY
Average daily table revenues (ADTR) were HK$768 million for the first 9 days of April, slightly above the March run rate. However, 4 of the 9 days were weekend days so ADTR should be higher. We are currently projecting HK$24-25 billion in full month GGR for April, up 21-25% YoY. Relative to the first 8 days of April last year, ADTR was up 15% but those 8 days contained only 2 weekend days which indicates there would be a little downside to our estimate. However, the opening of SCC this week should juice the numbers into our range. The April hold comparison is much more difficult than March (approximately 30bps of hold %). March was the last of the easy comparisons.
In terms of market share, Galaxy is the only company significantly below trend while MGM is the only one significantly above. With LVS opening up SCC this week, we would expect to see its shares rise, mostly at the expense of Galaxy and WYNN.