Impressive: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

POSITIONS: Long Utilities (XLU), Shorting Industrials (XLI) and SPY

A market that doesn’t go down and has no volume is impressive, until it isn’t. It’s April the 3rdand US Equity volumes are running down between -6-17%, daily, versus my YTD composite average. We have only had 1 down day greater than -0.7%.

Maybe that is the new normal. Maybe Growth Slowing won’t matter this time either. But right around this time in 2008, 2010, and 2011, that was a really bad risk management assumption to make.

The most important lines across durations in my model are now: 

  1. Immediate-term TRADE overbought = 1424
  2. Immediate-term TRADE support = 1407
  3. Intermediate-term TREND support = 1324 

In other words, impressive should remain impressive, provided that 1407 holds. If it doesn’t, both economic gravity and 1324 are in play.

I have 13 LONGS and 14 SHORTS in the Hedgeye Portfolio.

KM

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

Impressive: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - SPX