THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 3, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 16 points or -0.92% downside to 1406 and 0.21% upside to 1422. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 


EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1516 (1043) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 763.39 (-21.01%)
  • VIX:  15.64 -0.90% YTD PERFORMANCE: -33.16%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.86 from 2.63 (-29.28%) 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


INFLATION – inflation slows growth. Yesterday’s US Equity move was led by Basic Material and Energy stocks + the CRB Index was up 2x what the SP500 was. The Bond market agrees. The 10yr and the Yield Spread (10s – 2s) wouldn’t be down 3bps for the wk to date if US growth was still 2.5-3%). 

  • TED SPREAD: 40.72
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.07%
  • 10-Year: 2.17 from 2.18
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.84 from 1.86

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
  • 9:45am: ISM New York, Mar., (prior 63.1)
  • 10am: Factory Orders, Feb., est. 1.5% (prior -1.0%)
  • 11:30am, U.S. to sell 4-week, $26b 52-week bills
  • 2pm: Minutes of FOMC March 13 meeting released
  • 4:05pm: Fed’s Williams participates in university symposium simulating FOMC meeting in San Diego
  • 4:30pm: API weekly inventories 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Republicans hold presidential primaries in Wisconsin, Maryland, Washington, D.C.
    • EIA Acting administrator Howard Gruenspecht speaks about gasoline supplies. 9:15am
    • President Obama addresses Associated Press’s annual convention. Noon
    • Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner presides over FSOC mtg, vote on final rule regulating non-bank financial firms. 2:30pm
    • Vice President Joe Biden answers questions via Twitter on college affordability. 3:45pm
    • House, Senate not in session      

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • U.S. auto sales released today; March light-vehicle sales may have climbed to 14.5m seasonally adjusted annual rate; analysts
  • Carl Icahn’s tender offer to acquire CVR Energy expired yday; Icahn said he wouldn’t extend unless 36% shrs tendered
  • U.S. factory orders may have risen 1.5% in Feb., rebounding from a drop
  • China eco. may have expanded ~8.4% in 1Q, the least since 1H of 2009, according to an est. given by an official 10 days before the data are due
  • European producer prices rose 3.6% in yr, ahead of est. 3.5%
  • Royal Bank of Canada sued by U.S. regulators over claims engaged in illegal futures trades worth hundreds of millions of dollars to garner tax benefits tied to equities
  • Coty said to flip from seller to Avon buyer; yesterday went public with $10b offer that was rejected
  • Cablevision accused NY Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman of “a campaign of intimidation and extortion” to bring about a merger with Cablevision’s Newsday
  • U.S. sales of repossessed properties probably will rise 25% this yr from 1m in 2011: Moody’s Analytics
  • Olympus said it received capital alliance offers from Sony, Fujifilm Holdings and Terumo, may decide by next month
  • IATA says outlook “fragile,” raises concerns about business travel growth
  • Analyst says Roche to hold meeting this morning in New York after Illumina rejects offer
  • Amazon.com is testing a service that lets tablet users make purchases through mobile applications
  • SecondMarket said to hold its final auction of Facebook shares 

EARNINGS:

    • International Speedway (ISCA) 7am, $0.39
    • Comverse Technology (CMVT) 7:30am, $0.17 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Arabica Premium Seen Higher on Robusta Supply Surge: Commodities
  • Copper Retreats 0.6% to $8,590 a Ton on London Metal Exchange
  • Copper May Drop as Higher Inventories Undermine Demand Outlook
  • Oil Drops After Biggest Gain in Six Weeks on Outlook for Supply
  • Palm Oil Rallies to One-Year High on Soybean Planting Concerns
  • Gold May Fall in London on Concern Physical Buying Is Slowing
  • Wheat Drops as Global Crop Prospects Improve; Corn Increases
  • Sugar Falls in London for Second Day on Surplus; Cocoa Declines
  • Australia LNG Boom Threatened by U.S. Shale Exporters: Energy
  • India May Remain a Net Sugar Exporter for Third Year
  • Fortescue’s Power Says China Steel Demand Will Be ‘Very Strong’
  • Rusal Would Study Norilsk Sale at Right Price, New Chairman Says
  • Pakistan Exchange to Begin Foreign-Currency Futures by June
  • Tanker Rates Seen Reversing Rally as Oil Glut Expands: Freight
  • Oil Drops After Biggest Gain in Six Weeks
  • Oil Supplies Rise to Seven-Month High in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Jewelers in India Extend Strike for 18th Day Over Higher Taxes 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


ITALY – joins Spain this morning as the 2nd major Global Macro Equity market to snap its intermediate-term TREND line (15,961 was TREND support for the MIB Index). On a no volume rally in US Equities (down -17% vs my intermediate-term TREND avg yesterday), do not forget how bad those European PMI prints for March were yesterday.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – explicit comments from Chinese central bank head Zhou this morning telling the Fed that Bernanke has a “responsibility to consider global effects” of its dollar debauchery policy. We called this Bernanke’s War last week and from a Global Macro perspective, it’s on. Japan just printed its lowest money supply number in 3yrs. Japanese Liquidity drying up.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


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