With Mitt Romney's nomination as the Republican presidential candidate nearly secure, the former governor of Massachusetts and Bain Capital CEO would stand little chance of beating President Obama if the US presidential election were held today, according to the Hedgeye Election Indicator (HEI). President Obama would have a 62% chance of winning reelection, according to the HEI, down slightly from last week's record level of 62.3%.
Hedgeye developed the HEI to understand the relationship between key market and economic data and the US Presidential Election. After rigorous back testing, Hedgeye has determined that there are a short list of real time market-based indicators, that move ahead of President Obama’s position in conventional polls or other measures of sentiment. One of those factors, the timing of the performance of key equities in the US stock market including stocks in the financial sector, is keeping President Obama's reelection chances strong.
Based on our analysis, market prices will adjust in real-time ahead of economic conditions, which will ultimately shape voters’ perception of the Obama Presidency, the Republican candidates and influence the probability of an Obama reelection.
Hedgeye will releases the HEI every Tuesday at 7 a.m. ET, all the way until election day Tuesday November 6.
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