THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 30, 2012

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -662 (238) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 817.38 (0.04%)
  • VIX:  15.48 0.06% YTD PERFORMANCE: -33.85%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.49 from 3.16 (-52.85%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 41.22
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.06%
  • 10-Year: 2.16 from 2.16
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.82 from 1.82 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Personal income, Feb., est. 0.4% (prior 0.3%)
  • 8:30am: Personal spending, Feb., est. 0.6% (prior 0.2%)
  • 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Mgr, Mar., est. 63.0 (prior 64.0)
  • 9:55am: UMich Confidence, Mar. F, est. 74.6 (prior 74.3)
  • 10am: NAPM Milwaukee, Mar., est. 58.0 (prior 58.6)
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, meets with King Abdullah regarding regional security and Syria
    • President Obama travels to Maine and Vermont for campaign fundraising
    • ITC holds meeting on the economic effect of the addition of certain products to the list of items eligible for duty-free treatment, 9:30 am
    • FTC Bureau directors speak at antitrust conference, 8:15am 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Consumer spending probably climbed 0.6% in Feb., economist est., as Americans bought more cars
  • FTC decision may occur today on Express Scripts and Medco Health antritrust law violation claims
  • Research in Motion said it plans to refocus on business market, will consider partnerships and joint ventures
  • BP said the U.S. govt. is withholding evidence that would show the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico was smaller than claimed
  • Wells Fargo and SEC lawyers told to meet to discuss documents related to a probe of mortgage-backed securities
  • Pfizer judge certifies class action in Celebrex, Bextra suits
  • Euro-area March consumer prices climbed 2.6%, more than est.
  • Deadline for private-equity, hedge funds to meet registration requirements with SEC under Dodd-Frank

EARNINGS:

    • Finish Line (FINL), Pre-Mkt, $0.81    

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Copper Traders Most Bearish in Two Months on China: Commodities
  • Gold, Poised for Quarterly Advance, May Gain on Weaker Dollar
  • Oil Rises From Year’s Biggest Decline as Finance Ministers Meet
  • Copper, Set for Quarterly Increase, Climbs as Equities Advance
  • Soybeans, Headed for Quarterly Gain, Rise as Sowing May Stagnate
  • Robusta Coffee Slides as Producers May Be Selling; Sugar Rises
  • Carbon Like ‘Titanic’ Sinking on EU Permit Glut: Energy Markets
  • Floating Windmills in Japan Help Wind Down Nuclear Power: Energy
  • Gas Extends 10-Year Low as Inventories Gain More Than Expected
  • Iran Sanctions Fuel ‘Junk for Oil’ Barter With China, India
  • Oman Oil Output to Rise Next Month as Harweel Field Starts
  • Japan’s February Oil Imports From Iran Fall 32.7%, METI Says
  • Japan Expects Feed-Wheat Imports May Jump 82% Next Fiscal
  • Copper Traders Most Bearish as China Slows
  • GrainCorp at Lowest Valuation Seen Ripe for Plucking: Real M&A
  • Stalin’s Siberian Enclave Revives as Putin Seeks Mines for China
  • O’Neill Says He’s Not Convinced Oil Prices Going Up Further

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


GERMANY – February retail sales come in weaker at -1.1% versus the estimate of +1.1%. 

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – Industrial production unexpectedly fell as strengthening yen hurt outlook for exporters earnings; and Japan February consumer prices unexpectedly increased +0.1% versus -0.1% estimates.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 


Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more