TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 27, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 15 points or -1.02% downside to 1402 and 0.03% upside to 1417.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1566 (304)
- VOLUME: NYSE 754.94 (1.79%)
- VIX: 14.26 -3.78% YTD PERFORMANCE: -39.06%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.72 from 1.96 (-12.25%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 40.14
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
- 10-Year: 2.25 from 2.25
- YIELD CURVE: 1.91 from 1.90
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
- 9am: S&P/Case-Shiller (Y/y), Jan., est. -3.8% (prior -3.99%)
- 10am: Consumer Confidence, Mar., est. 70.1 (prior 70.8)
- 10am: Richmond Fed, Mar., est. 18 (prior 20)
- 10am: Fed’s Dudley, Kamin to speak at hearing in Washington on Eurozone aid
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell $35b 4-week bills
- 12:35pm: Fed’s Rosengren speaks in London
- 12:45pm: Fed’s Bernanke lectures at George Washington (3 of 4)
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $35b 2-yr notes
- 1:20pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Choudrant, Louisiana
- 3:45pm: Fed’s Duke speaks via videoconference on building sustainable communities
- 4:30pm: API inventories
- 9pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks at Tsinghua University
GOVERNMENT:
- President Obama meets with Pakistan PM Yousaf Raza Gillani, says he hopes countries can repair strained ties
- Nuclear Regulatory Commission holds a briefing on license renewal for research and test reactors, 9am
- House, Senate in session:
- Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testifies on the budget to House Appropriations subcommittee, 10am
- Natural Resources Committee holds a hearing on impact of rising gasoline prices on U.S. tourism industry, 10am
- House Financial Services subcommittee hears from New York Fed President William Dudley on Fed aid to the Eurozone, 10am
- House Energy subcommittee hearing on cosmetics, 10:15 am
- House Financial Services Committee marks up FHA Emergency Fiscal Solvency Act, 1pm
WHAT TO WATCH
- Home prices in 20 U.S. cities measured by S&P/Case-Shiller probably fell 3.8%, smallest decline in 3 mos., economists est.
- Obama administration today will defend requirement that Americans obtain insurance or pay a penalty in second of three days of arguments before Supreme Court over health- care law
- Annie’s, maker of organic and natural packaged foods, boosted its IPO range to $16-$18 ahead of today’s expected offering
- Michaels Stores, owned by Blackstone, Bain, said to consider filing for IPO as soon as next week
- Universal Music said to ready three publishing catalogs for sale which may raise as much as $200m
- United Technologies faces in-depth EU probe into bid to buy Goodrich for $16.5b; UTX says sees closing of deal mid-year
- RBS up 6% in London after two people familiar with situation said the U.K. govt. held talks with investors, including Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, about sale of part of its stake
- Sharp plans to raise ~$800m in share sale of unit to Hon Hai Precision, three related companies, to replenish capital
- Rio Tinto weighing sale of diamond assets as part of strategy review
EARNINGS:
- Lennar (LEN) 6am, $0.05
- Charming Shoppes (CHRS) 6:58am, $(0.02)
- McCormick (MKC) 7am, $0.53
- Walgreen (WAG) 7:30am, $0.77
- Neogen (NEOG) 8:45am, $0.22
- Oxford Industries (OXM) 4pm, $0.55
- Exfo (EXF CN) 4pm, $0.08
- Christopher & Banks (CBK) 4:01pm, $(0.47)
- Synnex (SNX) 4:02pm, $0.92
- PVH (PVH) 4:02pm, $1.10
- Robbins & Myers (RBN) Post-Mkt, $0.75
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Russia-Sized Mistakes Driving Corn Prices to Limit: Commodities
- Oil Near Three-Day High as Equity Gains Balance Supply Increase
- Soybeans Gain as Dry Weather Hurts Yields in Southern Brazil
- U.S. Corn Exports to Japan Drop as Brazil, Ukraine Boost Sales
- Gold May Gain From 2-Week High in London on Fed Monetary Policy
- Copper May Rise for Third Day on Federal Reserve Policy Outlook
- White Sugar Slides After India Allows More Exports; Cocoa Rises
- La Nina Weather Pattern ‘Is Dead,’ World’s Forecasters Say
- Shell Shearwater Field Pumping Gas After Total’s Elgin Halt
- Oil Stockpiles Rise to Six-Month High in Survey: Energy Markets
- Palm Oil Rallies to One-Year High as Vegetable-Oil Supplies Drop
- Oil-Sands Firm Sells U.S. Debt on Keystone Faith: Canada Credit
- Cars Sent to U.S. Rise Most Since ‘06 Aiding Wilhelmsen: Freight
- Oil Stockpiles at Six-Month High in Survey
- Enbridge Venture Plans New Oil Pipes to Gulf as Keystone Blocked
- China Aluminum Smelters Undo Alcoa, Rio Cuts: Chart of the Day
- Fracking Boom Makes U.S. Laggard No More on Greenhouse-Gas Cuts
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
